If not Reflections then where - Future DVC Resorts

[Aardvark747]

I know that is a long way off and there is still a lot of Riviera to sell but I have come to wonder what will be the next move for DVC if Reflections does not go ahead; I do hope it goes ahead though as I was one of the people who actually quite liked the disign. I know that the Disneyland DVC tower is likely to be the next one to hit the market but they always want to have a WDW resort on sale and eventually RR will sell out.
In terms of locations, I know that a second BLT has been thrown around as well as the possibility of more room refurbishments - something that I cant see being done anywhere other then the Poly at the moment. One area that has stood out to me though is the area across from BB and CS - if it is not going to be around Bay Lake, in my opinion, this is a great spot to get another resort similar to SSR and OKW in terms of building layout.
Although I would love to see move DVC outside of WDW, I don't think that it is likely as looking at how Aulani, HH and VB have gone. I am sure that there is enough demand at DL but there it is more about laws and space. There have always been talks of DVC going international and before Covid I had hoped that we were not too far away from a DVC at DLP - it is the logical sense as Theme Park property always do better and unlike the Asian parks, they are completely owned by Disney. I would love to see a room conversion at Newport Bay at DLP and I think it would be popular too with both add ons (there are a good number of UK DVC) and new members.

 

[Brett Wyman]

The answer is, probably no where for a long time. After 9-11 it was nearly a decade before the delayed pop century resorts were open as AOA. I think once Disney is ready the already prepped land on the Reflections sight wil be very appealing.

 

[Aardvark747]

The answer is, probably no where for a long time. After 9-11 it was nearly a decade before the delayed pop century resorts were open as AOA. I think once Disney is ready the already prepped land on the Reflections sight wil be very appealing.

While I agree it will be a long time, I think this has been a very different situation. DVC was a good, constant stream of revenue for Disney through the tourism fall fallowing 9/11 in this tourism stop it hs been quite the opposite as it has meant they have had to focus dvc inventory, which is less profitable, over regular hotel rooms when bringing back capacity.
Also following 9/11there was quite a few DVC property’s released with SSR (all be it a conversion) and AKV

 

[LAX]

This pandemic will no doubt delay the timeline of Riviera selling out. However, the new DVC over at DL is reportedly just delayed, not shelved, so DVD should have another property to sell alongside Riviera at some point (I am ignoring that Aulani is still selling). I guess depending on how quickly the Economy picks back up after we are through this pandemic, other DVC plans will resurface in some shape or form.

LAX

 

[CastAStone]

I imagine they will pivot back to converting rooms at a resort with an existing DVC property. I don’t imagine they want to make more properties that they HAVE to keep open in a post terrorist/pandemic/hurricane/whatever travel bust.

 

[Aardvark747]

I imagine they will pivot back to converting rooms at a resort with an existing DVC property. I don’t imagine they want to make more properties that they HAVE to keep open in a post terrorist/pandemic/hurricane/whatever travel bust.

Where do you think might be next for room conversions out of interest

 

[Donna M]

Once they get their revenue back up to a healthy level, I think they will restart Reflections since they have plans and have some site work completed.

 

[CastAStone]

Where do you think might be next for room conversions out of interest

100% guessing, to be clear:
>Beach Club
>Poly
>Grand Flo
>Boardwalk

BW would probably be a total resort conversion to DVC. I dont think it’s likely the Epcot resorts are high on the list because it would hurt Riviera sales if people knew it was coming, but i could see them doing it more 2027ish. They proves with VWL that they’re not concerned with having adjacent DVCs with different expirations.

I think most likely is GF. The hotel side Needs a room reno soon anyway and it can be sold at a premium. I’d imagine DVC would get the least desirable areas. But again, total, total guess.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I also think room conversions might be back. More at WL? BC? PVB? Or delve into YC although I think that's less likely than the others. They still seem to be moving forward with the new build at DL so they'll have points for sale and might just want to supplement with converting at WDW.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I doubt BC or BWI would convert. either would be a huge blow to the convention business at the Boardwalk Convention Center, and it would lose them many of the big events.

While conventions will be down a bit, they are glorious cash when the economy is good. The catering and rental income is bananas.

 

[Sandisw]

I wonder if they will convert the garden wing at CR?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I wonder if they will convert the garden wing at CR?

Tearing down the Contemporary Convention Center for something will happen. The two major centers are now Boardwalk and Coronado. Contemporary either needs a gutting and refurbishment to support ongoing convention business, or it gets torn down.

Given that BW and CSR just got big updates, I truly think Contemporary is a sitting duck.

Garden Wing is a possible target as well, but given their scale might not support anything large (or diverse unit types).

 

[havoc315]

At some point, they will hit a saturation level.. We may already be seeing that with Riviera sales that were on the slow side even before Covid.

2042 represents a big time period where leases expire. Some of the “old” resorts could very well get largely re-built, not just room refreshes and contract extensions. The Boardwalk stands out as a property on prime real estate that could use a massive overhaul.
2042 could also be a big year for demand, as people’s contracts expire. They may want to have a hugely appealing new property ready to launch.

So from now to about 2040... the next 20 years... I actually think we may hit a somewhat quieter period. Except maybe a few room conversions, I wouldn’t expect anything for at least another 5 years.

One possibility that I suspect they might explore — the concept of “moderate” or “value” DVC. More of value-level accommodations where a studio can be had for 7-8 points per night, and where contracts might start at $5,000-$10,000 instead of $20,000+.

 

[CastAStone]

At some point, they will hit a saturation level.. We may already be seeing that with Riviera sales that were on the slow side even before Covid.

2042 represents a big time period where leases expire. Some of the “old” resorts could very well get largely re-built, not just room refreshes and contract extensions. The Boardwalk stands out as a property on prime real estate that could use a massive overhaul.
2042 could also be a big year for demand, as people’s contracts expire. They may want to have a hugely appealing new property ready to launch.

So from now to about 2040... the next 20 years... I actually think we may hit a somewhat quieter period. Except maybe a few room conversions, I wouldn’t expect anything for at least another 5 years.

One possibility that I suspect they might explore — the concept of “moderate” or “value” DVC. More of value-level accommodations where a studio can be had for 7-8 points per night, and where contracts might start at $5,000-$10,000 instead of $20,000+.

The solution to this is the solution to all of Disney’s US park problems - they need to build a 3rd castle park, ideally somewhere colder, like Dayton, or Bozeman, or Wichita, or Niagara Falls. It would alleviate crowds at MK, allow for more total theme park guests without further reducing the guest experience at WDW/DLR, provide a hedge against global warming, and, most critically for this thread, allow them to build 1-15 more DVC resorts.

 

[Pyotr]

Tearing down the Contemporary Convention Center for something will happen. The two major centers are now Boardwalk and Coronado. Contemporary either needs a gutting and refurbishment to support ongoing convention business, or it gets torn down.

Given that BW and CSR just got big updates, I truly think Contemporary is a sitting duck.

Garden Wing is a possible target as well, but given their scale might not support anything large (or diverse unit types).

I agree with this. I think replacing the CR convention center with BLT2 is the most likely scenario. With that location it would be a much easier sell than Reflections.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I’m still holding out hope for a Poly tower that would include 1BR-GV options. I would buy points there!! I’ve seen rumors that one was planned and shelved due to Covid. If they had more to offer than the studios and Bungalows, we would probably never stay anywhere else.

 

[The Jackal]

Disney just filed a permit last week at Reflections for general construction. So the project could just be delayed too.

 

[tjkraz]

Disney just filed a permit last week at Reflections for general construction. So the project could just be delayed too.

That reflections permit has an expiration date of November 30, 2020. Unlikely that it signals the immediate restart of long-term construction.

 

[justadreamaway77]

I doubt BC or BWI would convert. either would be a huge blow to the convention business at the Boardwalk Convention Center, and it would lose them many of the big events.

While conventions will be down a bit, they are glorious cash when the economy is good. The catering and rental income is bananas.

excellent point....otherwise I would totally see BW going 100% DVC

 

[justadreamaway77]

I’m still holding out hope for a Poly tower that would include 1BR-GV options. I would buy points there!! I’ve seen rumors that one was planned and shelved due to Covid. If they had more to offer than the studios and Bungalows, we would probably never stay anywhere else.

a Poly tower would completely destroy that resort.