If indoor rides are closed when DL reopens...

[StormyCA]

If the indoor rides aren't open, I'll wait until they are. Quite a few of the 'outdoor' rides I can't do because of motion sickness. Once I eliminate those, there isn't much left for me to do.

But I was never planning on rushing back anyway. I want to see the 'lay of the Land' (pun intended) before I pony up my bucks for a trip.

 

[Skyegirl1999]

Attractions CMs are saying training includes indoor rides. Seems likely based on all available info that they’ll be opening with modifications/restrictions. (Maybe not all of them, but certainly not a “no indoor rides at all” situation).

 

[707MickeyGirl]

I was going off of you saying you agreed with another poster who did say July (Who I also quoted).

I do feel bad for out of state residents, but honestly, after CA being “locked” up for a year now while most other areas went on with life, we have earned this.

Oh, all I meant by being inclined to agree with @whoever is that I don't think April is going to happen. Disney can't afford to fully open two parks at 15% capacity without taking a sizeable loss. My guess would be that they will wait for the orange tier where they can open at 25% where they have a better chance of being profitable.

I agree that we in CA have had a rough time with our comparatively severe restrictions. I do sympathize with out-of-state Disney fans though. It's true that many areas of California have been encouraging them to come to our state, but the California travel advisory is still in place. I haven't even gone to DTD myself, even though I have desperately wanted to, because it's beyond my 120-mile radius. And I would love to have taken my DGD on a promised trip to WDW, but I cannot in good conscience explain to a 12 year old that yes, there are travel restrictions in place, but it doesn't apply to us. We all need to do our part.

 

[DLgal]

Oh, all I meant by being inclined to agree with @whoever is that I don't think April is going to happen. Disney can't afford to fully open two parks at 15% capacity without taking a sizeable loss. My guess would be that they will wait for the orange tier where they can open at 25% where they have a better chance of being profitable.

I agree that we in CA have had a rough time with our comparatively severe restrictions. I do sympathize with out-of-state Disney fans though. It's true that many areas of California have been encouraging them to come to our state, but the California travel advisory is still in place. I haven't even gone to DTD myself, even though I have desperately wanted to, because it's beyond my 120-mile radius. And I would love to have taken my DGD on a promised trip to WDW, but I cannot in good conscience explain to a 12 year old that yes, there are travel restrictions in place, but it doesn't apply to us. We all need to do our part.

For the last 5 straight days, OCs numbers have been solidly in Orange tier (raw daily numbers, not 7 day averages). This means that by the time next Tuesday rolls around when the county WILL move to red tier (if not sooner than that), the new 7 day average will be solidly Orange tier numbers. Since counties have to stay in each tier at least 3 weeks, it seems likely that OC will be moved to Orange tier by April 7. This isn't some pipe dream. Numbers are coming down fast here. There are no hints of a spike coming. LA county is doing even better than OC, if you can believe that. Both counties will likely move down the tiers simultaneously.

Today's numbers for OC (108 cases with a test positivity of 1.8%) have us actually flirting with YELLOW tier (the new version of yellow), if you can wrap your head around that. It's been a remarkable slide downwards.

If Disney can get their operations up and running for an April opening, they will absolutely open those gates.

 

[whoever]

Read on another site that Bob Chapek says late April reopening. I haven’t seen anything official though.

ETA: now it’s official

View attachment 561564

Not sure how they will bypass Cal-OSHA requirements, but I would LOVE if they snubbed their nose at them.

 

[JWelch62]

Today Orange county is officially below 7/100k case rate. OC came in at 6/100k. This is the first week in that category. If they stay underneath 7/100k for the next two weeks they would move to the Red tier. OC _could_ be tier 2 (Red) on March 23rd, which would allow a partial re-opening of DLR on April 1st.

To get to the yellow tier (tier 3) they would have to have a case rate below 3/100k for three consecutive weeks. The earliest that OC could be Orange would be April 13th. The state does not allow "skipping" tiers. You could not go from Purple to Orange, for example.

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID19CountyMonitoringOverview.aspx

1. A county must remain in a tier for a minimum of three weeks before being able to advance to a less restrictive tier.
2. A county can only move forward one tier at a time, even if metrics qualify for a more advanced tier.
3. If a county's adjusted case rate for tier assignment and test positivity measure fall into two different tiers, the county will be assigned to the more restrictive tier.

 

[DLgal]

Today Orange county is officially below 7/100k case rate. OC came in at 6/100k. This is the first week in that category. If they stay underneath 7/100k for the next two weeks they would move to the Red tier. OC _could_ be tier 2 (Red) on March 23rd, which would allow a partial re-opening of DLR on April 1st. This has been confirmed already by the OC Health Department.

To get to the yellow tier (tier 3) they would have to have a case rate below 3/100k for three consecutive weeks. The earliest that OC could be Orange would be April 13th. The state does not allow "skipping" tiers. You could not go from Purple to Orange, for example.

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID19CountyMonitoringOverview.aspx

1. A county must remain in a tier for a minimum of three weeks before being able to advance to a less restrictive tier.
2. A county can only move forward one tier at a time, even if metrics qualify for a more advanced tier.
3. If a county's adjusted case rate for tier assignment and test positivity measure fall into two different tiers, the county will be assigned to the more restrictive tier.

Your analysis of the timing is inaccurate. As of today, OC has ALREADY had 7 days of Red tier numbers. Remember the numbers are based on a 7 day average. OC will be eligible for Red tier placement March 17.

BUT, also, if the state completes 2 million vaccines administered in the target zip codes, the new color tier chart will come into play within 48 hours. At that time, any county that had numbers meeting the NEW requirements for Red tier over the last 2 weeks will be moved down as well. Both OC and LA county have met the new red tier criteria for the last 2 weeks already.

https://www.foxla.com/news/oc-to-mo...e-red-tier-reopen-more-businesses-on-march-17

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Your analysis of the timing is inaccurate. As of today, OC has ALREADY had 7 days of Red tier numbers. Remember the numbers are based on a 7 day average. OC will be eligible for Red tier placement March 17.

BUT, also, if the state completes 2 million vaccines administered in the target zip codes, the new color tier chart will come into play within 48 hours. At that time, any county that had numbers meeting the NEW requirements for Red tier over the last 2 weeks will be moved down as well. Both OC and LA county have met the new red tier criteria for the last 2 weeks already.

https://www.foxla.com/news/oc-to-mo...e-red-tier-reopen-more-businesses-on-march-17

Yay! It means my county will meet the new requirements to move down into red. And I saw in our local paper they’ve administered 1.9 million of the 2 million needed.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Not sure how they will bypass Cal-OSHA requirements, but I would LOVE if they snubbed their nose at them.

What Cal-OSHA requirements are you referring to?

They’ll meet the state metrics long before July.

 

[JWelch62]

Your analysis of the timing is inaccurate. As of today, OC has ALREADY had 7 days of Red tier numbers. Remember the numbers are based on a 7 day average. OC will be eligible for Red tier placement March 17.

BUT, also, if the state completes 2 million vaccines administered in the target zip codes, the new color tier chart will come into play within 48 hours. At that time, any county that had numbers meeting the NEW requirements for Red tier over the last 2 weeks will be moved down as well. Both OC and LA county have met the new red tier criteria for the last 2 weeks already.

From the website I linked above



On the third week OC would be moved to Red. In this case the prior two consecutive weeks would be 3/3 - 3/9, and 3/10 - 3/16. For the week ending 3/2 OC has a case rate of 7.5/100k, putting it outside the red tier. The third week would be 3/17- 3/23.

Also from the CDPH website.




Lastly, per the CA vaccine dashboard, OC has only administered less than 900k VAX doses to date. I'm not sure what zip codes you are referencing, but given the current VAX rates OC will not hit 2M doses anytime soon.

In any event, I believe that I am correct, but would be more than happy to be wrong as that would mean we are progressing faster than I calculate. I have been closely following the SD county case rates and based on the data I have collected, and knowing that my calculations have matched the officially published numbers, I still think the 23rd is the earliest for OC.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

From the website I linked above

View attachment 561602

On the third week OC would be moved to Red. In this case the prior two consecutive weeks would be 3/3 - 3/9, and 3/10 - 3/16. For the week ending 3/2 OC has a case rate of 7.5/100k, putting it outside the red tier. The third week would be 3/17- 3/23.

Also from the CDPH website.

View attachment 561604


Lastly, per the CA vaccine dashboard, OC has only administered less than 900k VAX doses to date. I'm not sure what zip codes you are referencing, but given the current VAX rates OC will not hit 2M doses anytime soon.

In any event, I believe that I am correct, but would be more than happy to be wrong as that would mean we are progressing faster than I calculate. I have been closely following the SD county case rates and based on the data I have collected, and knowing that my calculations have matched the officially published numbers, I still think the 23rd is the earliest for OC.

It’s not a particular county or zip code doing it. It’s all those combined under the 40% of vaccines to the hardest hit communities. They’re at 1.9 million doses administered today.

And when that happens, the tier restrictions loosen, meaning OC will hit the red tier a week earlier, retroactively.

 

[Katiebird]

From the website I linked above

View attachment 561602

On the third week OC would be moved to Red. In this case the prior two consecutive weeks would be 3/3 - 3/9, and 3/10 - 3/16. For the week ending 3/2 OC has a case rate of 7.5/100k, putting it outside the red tier. The third week would be 3/17- 3/23.

Also from the CDPH website.

View attachment 561604


Lastly, per the CA vaccine dashboard, OC has only administered less than 900k VAX doses to date. I'm not sure what zip codes you are referencing, but given the current VAX rates OC will not hit 2M doses anytime soon.

In any event, I believe that I am correct, but would be more than happy to be wrong as that would mean we are progressing faster than I calculate. I have been closely following the SD county case rates and based on the data I have collected, and knowing that my calculations have matched the officially published numbers, I still think the 23rd is the earliest for OC.

This is incorrect. The 3 weeks refers to how often you can move tiers. Since OC has been in purple for over 3 weeks, they’re eligible to move to red as soon as they have two weeks of red numbers. Today is one week, the 17th would be two weeks. Then they’d need to stay in red for 3 weeks before being able to move to yellow, even if they immediately had yellow numbers.

The 2M vaccines is state-wide to 400 high risk/disadvantages zip codes. Once those zip codes hit 2M vaccines total, the thresholds for the color tiers change (red goes from 7 to 10/100k), and that change is retroactive in terms of counting weeks.

Speaking of SD, if the 2M comes by next week, and we’re under 10 again, we would then move to red next week since we were under 10 today.

 

[whoever]

What Cal-OSHA requirements are you referring to?

They’ll meet the state metrics long before July.

Unless they get all the furloughed cast members working at least one shift at a closed attraction before March 12th, 2021, they will need to follow the below regimen.

The full training, regulated by Cal-OSHA, is the following for some attractions -
- Racers, Space Mountain, Indy, Incredicoaster is 5 8 Hour Days
-Pirates, Mansion, Guardians, Splash, Small World, Midway Mania is 4 8 Hour Days
-Luigi's, Mark Twain, Rafts is 3 8 Hour Days - or sometimes 3 and a half days.

IN ADDITION, they require a PREVIOUSLY certified supervisor who's done the above to oversee it all.

 

[JWelch62]

I wanted to look into the "2M" doses metric. This is part of the Vaccine Equity Metric. The 2M doses are not county specific (my misunderstanding) but statewide in the "Vaccine Equity Quartile"

The current data is in the included chart. If someone knows which quartile the State is specifically referencing, I would appreciate knowing that. I suspect it's quartile #1, which would put us about 1M doses away from the new framework.

 

[DLgal]

I wanted to look into the "2M" doses metric. This is part of the Vaccine Equity Metric. The 2M doses are not county specific (my misunderstanding) but statewide in the "Vaccine Equity Quartile"

The current data is in the included chart. If someone knows which quartile the State is specifically referencing, I would appreciate knowing that. I suspect it's quartile #1, which would put us about 1M doses away from the new framework.

View attachment 561606

View attachment 561608

At the time of last weeks announcement about this change, the governor said we had ALREADY administered 1.6M doses in those targeted areas. As of today, that number stands at 1.9M. By tomorrow or Thursday, this goal is expected to be met.

They are not using numbers directly from that bar graph. They chose 40 specific zip codes and are focusing the vaccine efforts there.

 

[Katiebird]

I wanted to look into the "2M" doses metric. This is part of the Vaccine Equity Metric. The 2M doses are not county specific (my misunderstanding) but statewide in the "Vaccine Equity Quartile"

The current data is in the included chart. If someone knows which quartile the State is specifically referencing, I would appreciate knowing that. I suspect it's quartile #1, which would put us about 1M doses away from the new framework.

View attachment 561606

View attachment 561608

It’s quartile 4, the highest risk. Quartile 1 is the lowest risk, or healthiest, areas. They were at 1.6M already when this initiative was announced.

Edit - I think the arrow least-to-most in your graphic might be backwards, but I’m tired and maybe not thinking correctly. It’s 4th quartile that’s lowest health though, because they used the same quartile to prioritize teacher vaccinations in SD last week.

 

[JWelch62]

This is incorrect. The 3 weeks refers to how often you can move tiers. Since OC has been in purple for over 3 weeks, they’re eligible to move to red as soon as they have two weeks of red numbers. Today is one week, the 17th would be two weeks. Then they’d need to stay in red for 3 weeks before being able to move to yellow, even if they immediately had yellow numbers.

The 2M vaccines is state-wide to 400 high risk/disadvantages zip codes. Once those zip codes hit 2M vaccines total, the thresholds for the color tiers change (red goes from 7 to 10/100k), and that change is retroactive in terms of counting weeks.

Speaking of SD, if the 2M comes by next week, and we’re under 10 again, we would then move to red next week since we were under 10 today.

I think I will defer to your interpretation of "prior two weeks".

In which case, Yay!, we can move one week earlier.

One should never be afraid to change opinions in light of new data.

Also, thanks for the data on the 2M dose metric.

RE:SD Yes, we'd have two weeks below 10 next week. 11.2 -> 8.9 - Under 7 next week.

 

[JWelch62]

It’s quartile 4, the highest risk. Quartile 1 is the lowest risk, or healthiest, areas. They were at 1.6M already when this initiative was announced.

Edit - I think the arrow least-to-most in your graphic might be backwards, but I’m tired and maybe not thinning correctly. It’s 4th quartile that’s lowest health though, because they used the same quartile to prioritize teacher vaccinations in SD last week.

I wouldn't doubt that the arrow is backwards. I pulled the graphic from the state website.

Really, thanks to everyone for all the data on the 2M doses.

EDIT - Sorry for diverting everyone into the weeds.

 

[Katiebird]

One should never be afraid to change opinions in light of new data.

If only more people had this attitude!!

 

[DLgal]

It’s quartile 4, the highest risk. Quartile 1 is the lowest risk, or healthiest, areas. They were at 1.6M already when this initiative was announced.

Edit - I think the arrow least-to-most in your graphic might be backwards, but I’m tired and maybe not thinning correctly. It’s 4th quartile that’s lowest health though, because they used the same quartile to prioritize teacher vaccinations in SD last week.

You have it backwards. Quartile 1 is the lowest income/worst outcomes and quartile 4 is higher income/better outcomes.



From ca.gov


The state is using the Healthy Places Index (HPI), which reflects 25 community characteristics
using data related to the economy, education, healthcare access, housing, neighborhoods, clean
environment, transportation, and social environment. California’s 1650+ ZIP codes have been
divided into four quarters based on the HPI Index. Those with the highest HPI scores correlate to
better health outcomes, while those with lower scores (first quartile) reflect worse health
outcomes. In general, higher HPI scores also correlate with higher household incomes, and lower
HPI scores correlate with lower incomes.

Allocation Formula: Starting with the March 2nd dose allocations delivered the week of
March 8, first doses will be allocated based on two steps:
1. Eligible Population: 70:30 based on the geographic distribution of the
population eligible for the vaccine, with 70 percent based on age eligibility and 30
percent based on sector eligibility.
2. Double Allotment for Lowest HPI Quartile: Next based on the 70:30
split, zip codes in the first HPI quartile (i.e., those with the lowest 25 percent HPI
scores) will be allocated 40 percent of the state’s available vaccine doses. Since
approximately 40 percent of COVID cases and deaths are in the first HPI quartile,a similar percentage of doses should be administered in these communities. Each
of the remaining quarters of the ZIP codes will be allocated 20 percent of doses
on hand. This results in twice as much vaccine being available in ZIP codes with
the worst COVID outcomes throughout the pandemic. In short, the state will
double the amount of vaccines allocated to the lowest 25% of zip codes when
compared to the rest of the state.

This allocation formula will be in effect for two weeks (the March 2 and March 8
allocations). The allocation formula will be adjusted after two weeks to account for the Janssen (Johnson and Johnson) vaccine, the new eligibility policy on March 15 (for persons with high-risk medical conditions and disabilities), and the Third-Party Administrator (TPA) onboarding waves.