IF I were shopping for resale RIV…

[eticketplease]

The expiration date is irrelevant to the point.

In 2042– if you’re a resale owner of ANY original resort:
If you bought your contract less than 23 years earlier (after 2019), you now only have access to a handful of resorts.
If you bought your contract more than 23 years earlier (before 2019), then you are still “unrestricted.”

My suspicion is that the pool of “ unrestricted” owners will be very small in 2042.

The expiration date was relevant to the point which was to try and figure out where you were coming up with 23 years.
We did not know you were referring to 2042 date but now we do.

That is why I said CCV would have 26 years of being "unrestricted" and the ability to stay at any resort if one had purchased before the newest set of restrictions were put in place.

 

[eticketplease]

Only if you bought CCV resale before 2019. If you bought CCV resale after 2019, then you’re heavily restricted by 2042.

That is why I specifically mentioned if they purchased before the restrictions took place.

That’s what I originally thought as well but people could purchase CCV a 2068 resort before this set of restrictions were put in place so wouldn’t that put it at 26 years?

 

[SugarSweetLee]

On the Crescent Lake resorts vs. RIV point, I just want to add a data point. I'm a RIV owner - finishing a 3-night stay tomorrow. We are planning to come back in February for our next trip. I was originally planning a split stay BCV and CCV for our February trip. On this trip, my wife and I went and did a walking tour of Beach Club - it was nice, but we both agreed, RIV seems so much better and nicer - TBH, the Skyliner ride after a long day with the kiddos seemed easier in some ways than the walk to BCV (we were renting park strollers so they would have had to walk from the Int'l Gateway). I decided to cancel my 3 night BCV February stay and booked RIV instead (still doing the remaining 4 nights at CCV). We didn't make it over to BWV - looked interesting. Definitely interested in staying at both in the future, but I did not see the immediate appeal of those resorts over RIV.

You summed up our feelings about RIV! It does feel luxurious being dropped off right at the Epcot gate. When you're tired, you're tired - we usually go for race weekends, and an extra trip out to lakeside resorts is just more time on feet that I don’t want then. I acknowledge that others have different experiences than we have had with long waits for the skyliner and/or it going down. I'm sure as owners only 1 year in that we will have our own annoyances with that over time, but so far we are very happy with our choice.

 

[eticketplease]

My suspicion is that the pool of “ unrestricted” owners will be very small in 2042.

Agreed.

SSR, OKW, AKV, BLT, VGC, AUL, VGF, PVB and CCV will be the remain resale resorts that were able to be purchased before the restrictions went into place.

With CCV and PVB being the newest I doubt there are many owners that were able to acquire before the deadline.
For the majority of VGC owners they are not swapping at the 7 month window for anything unless they wanted to see how VDH compares.

 

[juliebee]

That’s correct….
But there will essentially be 3 pools of those owners:
1. Direct owners. Some of those direct owners will be on the 30th+ year of their contract at that point
2. Pre-2019 resale owners: in other words, those that have held their resale contracts for over 23 years. This group would include very few CCV owners. Wouldn’t include any contracts that originated with the Poly tower era, etc. And this group will likely be outnumbered by…
3. Those who own resale contracts that are under 23 years old.

Is this correct?
Who can book RIV at 7 months starting Feb 2042-
1. Direct owners of any non-restricted resort
2. Resale owners that purchased before Jan 19, 2019 at:

• Old Key West 2057
• Saratoga
• Animal Kingdom Lodges
• Bay Lake Tower
• Grand California
• Aulani
• Grand Floridian
• Polynesian
• Copper Creek

 

[havoc315]

Is this correct?
Who can book RIV at 7 months starting Feb 2042-
1. Direct owners of any non-restricted resort
2. Resale owners that purchased before Jan 19, 2019 at:

• Old Key West 2057
• Saratoga
• Animal Kingdom Lodges
• Bay Lake Tower
• Grand California
• Aulani
• Grand Floridian
• Polynesian
• Copper Creek

Correct --- Though not just Riviera. Those are also the only people who can book at Lakeside Lodge, Disneyland Villas.. Beach Club II, etc.

 

[juliebee]

Agreed.

SSR, OKW, AKV, BLT, VGC, AUL, VGF, PVB and CCV will be the remain resale resorts that were able to be purchased before the restrictions went into place.

With CCV and PVB being the newest I doubt there are many owners that were able to acquire before the deadline.
For the majority of VGC owners they are not swapping at the 7 month window for anything unless they wanted to see how VDH compares.

we were typing at the same time figuring out those resorts!

 

[havoc315]

Agreed.

SSR, OKW, AKV, BLT, VGC, AUL, VGF, PVB and CCV will be the remain resale resorts that were able to be purchased before the restrictions went into place.

With CCV and PVB being the newest I doubt there are many owners that were able to acquire before the deadline.
For the majority of VGC owners they are not swapping at the 7 month window for anything unless they wanted to see how VDH compares.

Also add-in, the number of resale owners, who will still re-sell again in a 23 year span.

 

[havoc315]

The expiration date was relevant to the point which was to try and figure out where you were coming up with 23 years.
We did not know you were referring to 2042 date but now we do.

That is why I said CCV would have 26 years of being "unrestricted" and the ability to stay at any resort if one had purchased before the newest set of restrictions were put in place.

No idea where you're getting 26. A direct owner of CCV purchasing in 2018 would have 50 years of unrestricted points.
In theory, someone buying resale of CCV before January 2019 would have 49 years of "unrestricted" points. I say in theory, because sales began in 2017 -- I doubt there were too many resales before January 2019. Likely only a handful.

Anyone who bought CCV resale after January 2019 will gradually see a reduced portion of eligible results, with a huge reduction in 2042, to likely less than half the resorts.

 

[havoc315]

My response to

Was

To which you replied

So I can't speak for others but I was confused since we are talking about resale owners not being able to stay in Epcot resorts after 2042 and I stated some would still be able to by staying at RIV if they had purchased resale prior to the newest set of restrictions.

#1 and #3 are not relevant to the post imo as we are talking resale owners that can stay in Epcot area after 2042.

Thank you for explaining your #2 point with the holding their contracts of over 23 years since 2042. At least I know I was not the only confused one lol. It certainly makes sense about 23 or more years now that you brought up the 2042 that I had forgotten about probably since I saw you mentioned direct.

Yes, I can see how I caused confusion. But yes, that is absolutely correct. The point being that by 2042, there will be very few non-Epcot resale owners who are eligible to swap into Epcots resorts -- By 2042, only those who owned their contract for more than 23 years. I could be wrong, but I expect that to be a pretty small portion of resale owners, given it's a whole generation removed. If you bought that resale to enjoy with your kids, your kids are all grown up. It's speculative, but I've seen numbers thrown around suggesting that ever length of DVC contract ownership as 8-12 years. And I have to believe that resale buyers are even more likely to resell then direct buyers (given they are already familiar with the way resale works).

Not saying that nobody owns a resale contract for more than 23 years, just suggesting they are a smaller part of the entire pool.

 

[eticketplease]

No idea where you're getting 26. A direct owner of CCV purchasing in 2018 would have 50 years of unrestricted points.
In theory, someone buying resale of CCV before January 2019 would have 49 years of "unrestricted" points. I say in theory, because sales began in 2017 -- I doubt there were too many resales before January 2019. Likely only a handful.

Anyone who bought CCV resale after January 2019 will gradually see a reduced portion of eligible results, with a huge reduction in 2042, to likely less than half the resorts.

Sorry, I guess I was going based on the 2042 date as well. I was thinking copper Creek would have 26 more years to stay at other resorts after 2042 as long as they bought before the restrictions went in place. Copper Creek owners would be able to stay at Riviera, Disneyland, and other future resorts plus the remaining 8 of the O14 resorts.

 

[eticketplease]

Yes, I can see how I caused confusion. But yes, that is absolutely correct. The point being that by 2042, there will be very few non-Epcot resale owners who are eligible to swap into Epcots resorts -- By 2042, only those who owned their contract for more than 23 years. I could be wrong, but I expect that to be a pretty small portion of resale owners, given it's a whole generation removed. If you bought that resale to enjoy with your kids, your kids are all grown up. It's speculative, but I've seen numbers thrown around suggesting that ever length of DVC contract ownership as 8-12 years. And I have to believe that resale buyers are even more likely to resell then direct buyers (given they are already familiar with the way resale works).

Not saying that nobody owns a resale contract for more than 23 years, just suggesting they are a smaller part of the entire pool.

Absolutely, they also most likely would lose less / make $$ depending on when they bought the contract vs a direct buyer.

 

[havoc315]

Is this correct?
Who can book RIV at 7 months starting Feb 2042-
1. Direct owners of any non-restricted resort
2. Resale owners that purchased before Jan 19, 2019 at:

• Old Key West 2057
• Saratoga
• Animal Kingdom Lodges
• Bay Lake Tower
• Grand California
• Aulani
• Grand Floridian
• Polynesian
• Copper Creek

Circling around to a point from long ago --
Some claim that Riviera will book up right at 11 months, as re-sale owners won't have any place else to go.

But you'll potentially get a similar phenomenon at the above-list.
OKW and SSR owners are probably among the the most frequent to trade out. I've know many SSR owners boast about how they never actually stay at SSR. But now, instead of being able to trade out to 13 other resorts, they will only be able to trade to 8 others, and only 5-6 others at WDW. (It's unclear how much OKW will even remain DVC is most of the points are 2042 points -- most of the points may go back to being undeclared).

So if you're an owner at GFV or Poly, for example, there is little incentive to trade out. You can't trade out to an Epcot resort for a location switch. You can't swap to a new resort just to try the newness. I don't think many GFV and Poly owners swap out to SSR or OKW, unless it's a question of last minute availability. Sure, could swap to BLT... but why bother trading down to a "lesser" monorail resort? Meanwhile, those resorts will face an increase in the number of people trying to swap in. As those SSR and OKW owners now have few places they can swap in to.

Essentially, applying the logic that Riviera would be impossible to book, all the "desirable" resorts on that list become nearly impossible to book beyond the exact 7 month mark.

 

[atthebeachclub]

So if you're an owner at GFV or Poly, for example, there is little incentive to trade out. You can't trade out to an Epcot resort for a location switch. You can't swap to a new resort just to try the newness. I don't think many GFV and Poly owners swap out to SSR or OKW, unless it's a question of last minute availability. Sure, could swap to BLT... but why bother trading down to a "lesser" monorail resort?

Point differential for one. People might like to stay longer rather than “fancier.” And I like BLT and wouldn’t call it “lesser”, but that’s just me.

Also there are more resorts to spread around at at 7 months for resale owners vs Riviera resale owners, with a total of one. I think for Riviera and other restricted resort owners, it may be tougher to stay at the restricted home resorts than for other owners booking non restricted resorts. Of course, if a multitude more restricted resorts you can trade into are built, this may not be a problem anymore. But more resorts may mean your DVC value goes down if you have to sell, due to supply and demand. Is there really the demand out there for a ton more DVC resorts than already exist today? If so, parks will need more expansion.

 

[havoc315]

Point differential for one. People might like to stay longer rather than “fancier.” And I like BLT and wouldn’t call it “lesser”, but that’s just me.

Agreed that there is subjectivity, but if a GFV owner thought that BLT was superior, they would have bought BLT.

Given that GFV resale owners paid significantly more for their contract than a BLT re-sale owner, I expect they see BLT as lesser. Why else pay an extra $30 per point if you don't view it as a better resort. You don't pay $160+ per point at GFV or Poly with the goal of often using those points at BLT.
Yes, sometimes people trade down to a cheaper point chart -- But if that was common, then SSR and OKW would be super booked up. In reality, we know it's far more common to trade into a "better resort" than to trade down to a "lesser resort." We know that based on the inside-7-month availability. The lower chart properties have significantly better availability than the higher chart properties. With the caveat that lower point rooms book faster than higher point rooms, within a property. And the ultra high point rooms -- Poly Bungalows -- are very slow to book.

Point being, those at the most desirable resorts that already have very limited availability at 7 months -- It will only get worse.
As they will continue to have massive pressure to trade in, without ability/desire of owners to trade out.

Also there are more resorts to spread around at at 7 months for resale owners vs Riviera resale owners, with a total of one.

And there are far more resale owners trying to trade into GFV and Poly. Especially all those SSR owners who bought their points specifically as sleep around. The Riviera owner booking at 6 months into Rivieria no longer has to compete with all those SSR owners.

I think for Riviera and other restricted resort owners, it may be tougher to stay at the restricted home resorts than for other owners booking non restricted resorts. Of course, if a multitude more restricted resorts you can trade into are built, this may not be a problem anymore. But more resorts may mean your DVC value goes down if you have to sell, due to supply and demand.

That's already happening. Value as been trending down or stagnant for the last couple of years.
BLT average resale price: (I picked BLT as it's a longish contract that hasn't been in active sales over the last couple of years)
October 2022 - $166
Feb 2023 - $156
June 2023 - $156
February 2024 -- $132
June 2024 - $132
Feb 2025 - $134
June 2025 - $133

Is there really the demand out there for a ton more DVC resorts than already exist today? If so, parks will need more expansion.

There is enough demand when priced properly. It's just a question of price increases slowing down. Resale prices dropping, which is already happening.

My expectation in terms of resale pricing:
2042 resorts will see steadily dropping prices, as it really becomes a math equation of time left on contract.

With 2042 resorts being less desirable, there will be somewhat increased demand for the longer contracts. But there is also the ongoing massive expansion of DVC -- Lakeside Lodge will have a huge number of rooms to sell, and that's not likely to be their last resort.
So I expect 2042 resorts to see steady decline in pricing, while others may stagnate a bit.

By 2035ish, about 10 years from now... I expect Riviera will have the 3rd or 4th highest resale price among WDW DVC resorts. (GFV and Poly remaining as the top 2. I think Riv eventually surpasses BLT, and Riv and CCV battle it out for 3rd).

 

[eticketplease]

(It's unclear how much OKW will even remain DVC is most of the points are 2042 points -- most of the points may go back to being undeclared).

Good point.

I'm assuming that is why Disney keeps buying those contracts and then having a fire sale on them once they are 2057 contracts.

 

[eticketplease]

Agreed that there is subjectivity, but if a GFV owner thought that BLT was superior, they would have bought BLT.

Most likely yes but there are certainly other factors if you were going to hold the contract such as dues and rentability.
Sure BLT rents well but to your same point most outsiders would prefer to rent VGF than BLT.

With VDH and PVB I'm so glad they are back to adding the 2nd and 3rd bathrooms.
Depending on how many people are going that is a reason we book BLT over VGF.

 

[eticketplease]

The Riviera owner booking at 6 months into Rivieria no longer has to compete with all those SSR owners.

The Riviera resale owner still has competition from all eligible resale and direct owners. If RIV resale owner can't secure a room there is no backup plan other than to waitlist, bank the points or use II.

The SSR has a lot of rooms at its own resort that people don't try and get until the last minute and possibly one of the non restricted resorts.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Note ROFR activity has also guided certain pricing of certain resorts at resale the last few years, but not others.

 

[Sandisw]

Not forgetting at all.
It’s a question of numbers. The overwhelming majority of Riviera owners are direct, given it’s only 6 years in. So the vast majority, likely 90-95%+, are fully eligible to trade in and out.

On the other hand, older resorts have a much higher proportion of resale owners. I can’t really take an educated guess, but solely for illustration purposes:
If 95% of Riviera owners are eligible to trade out, but only 50% of non-Riviera DVC owners can trade in, that will create a more favorable 7 month window.

Over time, of course, the number of Riviera resale owners will increase—- but by the time the numbers get really significant, by then all resorts will be heavily restricted for resale. Even the original resorts: For example, a BLT owner in 2045, likely will only be able to use their points at about 8 resorts, while there will be 10-15 resorts where they can’t use their points.

In other words, by the time there are a really significant number of resale owners, all the resorts will have the same issue. In the end, the biggest factor is the percentage of owners that are resale.

From all the reports I have read, it seems about 1% of points are converted each year from an original owner to resale.

Once it’s resale, no matter how often sold, it doesn’t change the ratio of direct to resale.

So. I think it will take a long time before we see any level of resale that might impact things.