IF I were shopping for resale RIV…

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Seven months should be easier than other resorts.

Assuming they make a BW2 or BC2 before 2042, this may be true if certain conditions are met.

1. You have more RIV wanting to trade out to Crescent Lake than Crescent Lake trading into RIV. (likely)
2. You will also have most of the other resorts' direct owners who want some Epcot days booking BC or BW2 first, assuming the point chart is not too far above RIV. (likely)

Since all resale will be blocked out of the Epcot area in 2042, the 3 MK resorts will have awful 7-month issues, especially Poly since it has the best Epcot access. It will have to absorb the brunt of resale SSR, OKW, and AK trades without BW, BC, and BRV sharing the load.

LSL is a wildcard as we do not know how many DVC rooms but we can assume it will be restricted. And likely the easiest for direct owners of other resorts to trade into for MK

The Cabins might be still in active sales ...

 

[eticketplease]

Not forgetting at all.
It’s a question of numbers. The overwhelming majority of Riviera owners are direct, given it’s only 6 years in. So the vast majority, likely 90-95%+, are fully eligible to trade in and out.

On the other hand, older resorts have a much higher proportion of resale owners. I can’t really take an educated guess, but solely for illustration purposes:
If 95% of Riviera owners are eligible to trade out, but only 50% of non-Riviera DVC owners can trade in, that will create a more favorable 7 month window.

Over time, of course, the number of Riviera resale owners will increase—- but by the time the numbers get really significant, by then all resorts will be heavily restricted for resale. Even the original resorts: For example, a BLT owner in 2045, likely will only be able to use their points at about 8 resorts, while there will be 10-15 resorts where they can’t use their points.

In other words, by the time there are a really significant number of resale owners, all the resorts will have the same issue. In the end, the biggest factor is the percentage of owners that are resale.

I can certainly see your point there but one caveat that I have no proof of but I would gather that most direct RIV owners bought it as they love the resort and plan to stay there and not trade out.
These people may or may not have known about the resale restrictions but they did have other choices for the most part.
CCV, VGF, CFW and PVB all been in active sales at WDW and people continue to purchase RIV.

 

[eticketplease]

Since all resale will be blocked out of the Epcot area in 2042, the 3 MK resorts will have awful 7-month issues, especially Poly since it has the best Epcot access.

A good majority yes but not all. The last set of restrictions on resale were but in place in January 2019 so anyone that purchased before then can still book RIV at 7 months.

 

[Mouseforward]

A good majority yes but not all. The last set of restrictions on resale were but in place in January 2019 so anyone that purchased before then can still book RIV at 7 months.

Correct, I forgot that point. Oh, I wish I had purchased earlier.

 

[eticketplease]

I wish I had purchased earlier.

Said by everyone even if they bought in 1991 lol

 

[havoc315]

I can certainly see your point there but one caveat that I have no proof of but I would gather that most direct RIV owners bought it as they love the resort and plan to stay there and not trade out.

That’s true of every resort bought direct. It’s no more or less true at Riviera.
There are people who bought it because it was their favorite resort. And people who bought it because it happened to be the resort in active sales when they purchased.

Speaking from experience, I know plenty of Riviera owners who trade out with varying frequencies.

These people may or may not have known about the resale restrictions but they did have other choices for the most part.
CCV, VGF, CFW and PVB all been in active sales at WDW and people continue to purchase RIV.

At varying times, there was sometimes 1 other resort to choose from. If you count Aulani and the Cabins, as many as 4 resorts!
But then the same logic goes to all direct owners at all resorts in recent years.

 

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I know plenty of Riviera owners who trade out with varying frequencies.

A large amount of direct buyers only get one resort - I would imagine VGF/RIV/CCV owners trade out at the same frequency. Poly owners used to trade more when they only had studios or cabins.

 

[havoc315]

A good majority yes but not all. The last set of restrictions on resale were but in place in January 2019 so anyone that purchased before then can still book RIV at 7 months.

That’s correct….
But there will essentially be 3 pools of those owners:
1. Direct owners. Some of those direct owners will be on the 30th+ year of their contract at that point
2. Pre-2019 resale owners: in other words, those that have held their resale contracts for over 23 years. This group would include very few CCV owners. Wouldn’t include any contracts that originated with the Poly tower era, etc. And this group will likely be outnumbered by…
3. Those who own resale contracts that are under 23 years old.

 

[airjay75]

On the Crescent Lake resorts vs. RIV point, I just want to add a data point. I'm a RIV owner - finishing a 3-night stay tomorrow. We are planning to come back in February for our next trip. I was originally planning a split stay BCV and CCV for our February trip. On this trip, my wife and I went and did a walking tour of Beach Club - it was nice, but we both agreed, RIV seems so much better and nicer - TBH, the Skyliner ride after a long day with the kiddos seemed easier in some ways than the walk to BCV (we were renting park strollers so they would have had to walk from the Int'l Gateway). I decided to cancel my 3 night BCV February stay and booked RIV instead (still doing the remaining 4 nights at CCV). We didn't make it over to BWV - looked interesting. Definitely interested in staying at both in the future, but I did not see the immediate appeal of those resorts over RIV.

 

[havoc315]

A large amount of direct buyers only get one resort - I would imagine VGF/RIV/CCV owners trade out at the same frequency. Poly owners used to trade more when they only had studios or cabins.

Your speculation has some logic, it may be true.

If we look at who might have a bigger incentive to trade out:

1. Those in old resorts, wanting to get into newer fresher resorts. This would be especially true of SSR and OKW owners
2. Trading out to get more nights and better “values” — this would be GFV and Poly owners trading “down”… but this could balance out #1.. as these people trade in to SSR and OKW
3. Those trading for a different room type — your Poly theory.

It’s hard to say how these different reasons balance each other out.
We know SSR and OKW have the most late availability, suggest that lots of people want to trade out of them. And they are also big resorts so there is more likely to be rooms left.

We also know high point rooms tend to be available later— preferred view 1 bedroom units are slow to book at most resorts. You can almost always get a Poly Bungalow at 7 months.

This won’t be less true at Riviera— you’ll likely almost always be able to get a preferred 1 BR at 7 months. You’ll almost never get a standard or tower studio at 7 months.

 

[havoc315]

On the Crescent Lake resorts vs. RIV point, I just want to add a data point. I'm a RIV owner - finishing a 3-night stay tomorrow. We are planning to come back in February for our next trip. I was originally planning a split stay BCV and CCV for our February trip. On this trip, my wife and I went and did a walking tour of Beach Club - it was nice, but we both agreed, RIV seems so much better and nicer - TBH, the Skyliner ride after a long day with the kiddos seemed easier in some ways than the walk to BCV (we were renting park strollers so they would have had to walk from the Int'l Gateway). I decided to cancel my 3 night BCV February stay and booked RIV instead (still doing the remaining 4 nights at CCV). We didn't make it over to BWV - looked interesting. Definitely interested in staying at both in the future, but I did not see the immediate appeal of those resorts over RIV.

I’ve stayed at Beach Club before buying Riviera, stayed a couple of times.

Riviera rooms are much much nicer than the BCV rooms. Overall resort is more subjective, but I strongly prefer Riviera myself.

That said, Beach Club has 2 huge advantages:

Skyliner is great most of the time. But try leaving Epcot right after fireworks. That’s the only time you may encounter a 30-60 minute line for the skyliner. Much nicer to walk back to your hotel under those circumstances.

Stormalong Bay — it’s slightly overrated. But if you have kids between 6 and 13, and you’re planning a lot of pool time, Stormalong Bay is fantastic. If your kids are too young to run around a pool complex on their own, or they have started to become teens that would rather lounge by the pool or sit in a hot tub, then Stormalong Bay is not such a selling point.

 

[Mouseforward]

I’ve stayed at Beach Club before buying Riviera, stayed a couple of times.

Riviera rooms are much much nicer than the BCV rooms. Overall resort is more subjective, but I strongly prefer Riviera myself.

That said, Beach Club has 2 huge advantages:

Skyliner is great most of the time. But try leaving Epcot right after fireworks. That’s the only time you may encounter a 30-60 minute line for the skyliner. Much nicer to walk back to your hotel under those circumstances.

Stormalong Bay — it’s slightly overrated. But if you have kids between 6 and 13, and you’re planning a lot of pool time, Stormalong Bay is fantastic. If your kids are too young to run around a pool complex on their own, or they have started to become teens that would rather lounge by the pool or sit in a hot tub, then Stormalong Bay is not such a selling point.

Thanks for typing out my thoughts -LOL Exactly as i feel about them.

 

[airjay75]

I’ve stayed at Beach Club before buying Riviera, stayed a couple of times.

Riviera rooms are much much nicer than the BCV rooms. Overall resort is more subjective, but I strongly prefer Riviera myself.

That said, Beach Club has 2 huge advantages:

Skyliner is great most of the time. But try leaving Epcot right after fireworks. That’s the only time you may encounter a 30-60 minute line for the skyliner. Much nicer to walk back to your hotel under those circumstances.

Stormalong Bay — it’s slightly overrated. But if you have kids between 6 and 13, and you’re planning a lot of pool time, Stormalong Bay is fantastic. If your kids are too young to run around a pool complex on their own, or they have started to become teens that would rather lounge by the pool or sit in a hot tub, then Stormalong Bay is not such a selling point.

I can very much see this. I think I was expecting something a little bit more for Stormalong Bay than what it was. I could also see one's Skyliner experience having a significant affect on one's views - my wife and I did fireworks (without the kids) on Wednesday and pretty much immediately left to the Skyliner - no more than a 10-15 minute wait to get on. We also used the Skyliner after Moonlight Magic, and almost no wait for the Skyliner at the time we got on. A 30-60 minute wait would be tough.

 

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A 30-60 minute wait would be tough.

if you don't go peak weeks, I don't see this often - the real issue is thunderstorms when they shut it down.
But the last time that happened the cm at the skyliner told us to go to BC and they sent a bus to RIV , others have reported they had to trek to the Epcot entrance which would suck.

If they would let us double up on drinks and allow them past the security exit it would help the wait.

 

[atthebeachclub]

2. Pre-2019 resale owners: in other words, those that have held their resale contracts for over 23 years.

It hasn’t been 23 years since 2019. That was six years ago.

TBH, the Skyliner ride after a long day with the kiddos seemed easier in some ways than the walk to BCV (we were renting park strollers so they would have had to walk from the Int'l Gateway).

You may prefer Riviera, but there is absolutely no possible way that the Skyliner ride from International Gateway is easier or more convenient than the sub 3 minute walk to BCV unless you have additional unmentioned limiting factors on your mobility. There is always zero wait on a walk, and your speed is determined by your own feet, not how fast other people board and disembark. And then you are home. I’m home before the line to Riviera has even boarded most nights.

 

[airjay75]

You may prefer Riviera, but there is absolutely no possible way that the Skyliner ride from International Gateway is easier or more convenient than the sub 3 minute walk to BCV unless you have additional unmentioned limiting factors on your mobility. There is always zero wait on a walk, and your speed is determined by your own feet, not how fast other people board and disembark. And then you are home. I’m home before the line to Riviera has even boarded most nights.

I'm sure you are right. On this trip, with little or no line, and a hot, tired 4-year old that would have demanded (with loud screams) to be carried the entire way to BCV, the Skyliner provided something for them to shift their mind and focus, and the Skyliner ride itself gave him a few minutes to recuperate, and be ready for the short walk to RIV. Maybe not easier than it would have been biting the bullet and just carrying them to a BCV room, but it worked well for us this trip .

 

[atthebeachclub]

I'm sure you are right. On this trip, with little or no line, and a hot, tired 4-year old that would have demanded (with loud screams) to be carried the entire way to BCV, the Skyliner provided something for them to shift their mind and focus, and the Skyliner ride itself gave him a few minutes to recuperate, and be ready for the short walk to RIV. Maybe not easier than it would have been biting the bullet and just carrying them to a BCV room, but it worked well for us this trip .

I can relate to the kid issues, but BCV is still faster and easier! When my youngest was six, I carried her about halfway through all the countries in Epcot. lol. Even just a few minutes of parent carrying seemed to help her stamina!

Now she’s too big and I’m too small, but she also complains less and is stronger. 8 year olds are so capable! We only had one breakdown on our last trip and it was because I let her stay out way too late and wear herself out all over Epcot and soak herself and expend way too much energy at Journey of Water during extended evening hours. Thankfully we had a maple syrup lollipop a very kind CM in Canada gave us and that sugar helped keep her going all the monorail back to Polynesian.

 

[eticketplease]

You may prefer Riviera, but there is absolutely no possible way that the Skyliner ride from International Gateway is easier or more convenient than the sub 3 minute walk to BCV unless you have additional unmentioned limiting factors on your mobility. There is always zero wait on a walk, and your speed is determined by your own feet, not how fast other people board and disembark. And then you are home. I’m home before the line to Riviera has even boarded most nights.

I wish I could walk that fast after being in the parks!!!

We are slow and can make it in 10 lol.
Sometimes though it’s nice to take a break and enjoy the nice ride back to RIV on the skyliner. With the exception of DS we all wait for the nice boat ride when staying at BWV.

All 3 Crescent lake resorts have their appeal for different reasons and we like them all.

 

[eticketplease]

soak herself and expend way too much energy at Journey of Water

You are lucky with this. DS has us all positioned so that we get soaked instead!!

 

[eticketplease]

It hasn’t been 23 years since 2019. That was six years ago.

I’m not sure where that number came from either. The range of years would be 6-28 although I doubt any resale contracts were bought in 1991!!