Orange County here, 8 miles north of WDW. Transplant from Canada.
We're kind of calm, well stocked up with water and food... but I just heard several media outlets saying this will be the worst hurricane/storm in FL in 100 years?? Huh?? how? At its worst it'll be a CAT 3.. are they saying there's never been CATs 4 or 5 in FL in 100 years? Looks like the media is exaggerating & being overly dramatic.. this is like their superbowl right now they sound so excited!
For the record, as of now, I'd still take 1-2 hurricanes a year over 6 months of snow, 9 months of cold weather. Any day of the week.. I bleeping love Florida.
Hope this beautiful state doesn't get battered too much by Ian.
As someone who grew up in Florida and now lives in New Orleans, I believe your lack of experience with hurricanes is clouding your judgement. Here's how I see it, having lived through the eye of Ida last year:
A) Ian is projected to undergone rapid intensification. Just like Ida did. There may be some slight weakening after that. Ida was projected to weaken quickly following its rapid intensification cycle and make landfall as a Cat 1/weakening to a tropical storm. Instead, it made landfall as a Cat 4/strengthening to Cat 5. Our prediction tools are good, but they're not THAT good. Nobody can predict exactly what will happen after rapid intensification, and many experts are now calling for a Cat 4 at landfall.
B) Ian is going to slow way down. Just like Ida did. It's one thing for a major hurricane to rip through fast and go away. Zeta did that here the year before Ida. It sucked, we lost power for a couple of days, but it was fine. It's something else entirely to be battered by a hurricane that won't leave. As of now, Ian is predicted to start brushing the West Coast of Florida by 2pm tomorrow. It won't be downgraded to a tropical storm until 2am Friday, and it won't exit to Georgia until 2am SATURDAY. That is an insanely long hurricane (most are gone in a few hours). The longer it lasts, the more damage it does.
C) The 100-year storm thing is specifically in reference to Tampa Bay. It was 1921 the last time a major hurricane entered the state from there. They're low-lying, flood-prone, and utterly unprepared. If they get the predicted 10 foot storm surge, there's nothing to stop it.
You should be more or less okay in Orange County, depending on the exact track and intensity. Except, you're currently in the northeast quadrant--which is the WORST place to be besides the eyewall (which could also still hit you, depending on last minute jogs in the path). Prepare for lots of tornadoes and extremely intense storms. If you're in a solid, well-built house and ready for a week to a month of the power being out, you'll likely make it through relatively unscathed (relatively being the operative word).
D) Since you asked, Cat 4/5 hurricanes are RARE. There have been 13 of them to hit Florida in the past 100 years. And again, NONE have taken this track through the center of the state from west to east.
Everyone has to do what they think is best for their own family. But until you've personally huddled with your family in a bathroom all night while you could literally feel your house shifting on its foundation and the walls swaying, please don't come into a thread like this and downplay the potential impacts.
