You probably wouldn't have a chance at the BWV, BCV or VWL. You might be able to get something at OKW or SSR.
When you call MS to make your reservation, you can ask them to Waitlist you for the booked resort. They won't tell you how many people are ahead of you. Once you are 30 days out, the waitlist is cancelled and you have to call day by day. (I think that's it, we've only waitlisted once and we didn't get it.)