I hate to say it , and I hope I'm wrong , but ...

[Davey Jones II]

The fact that something seems obvious does not make it true. There's also no statistical evidence supporting "lots of people cutting down their trips". The fact that a bunch of posters on a forum talk about it means nothing.

This is not a court of law, we don't have to prove everything we say beyond a reasonable doubt. The people on these boards are not aliens and don't live in a vacuum. We represent the most loyal repeat customers for the theme parks.

If a consumer product is already in high demand and then the price drops instead of going up, you contend that the demand wouldn't change? That makes no sense, sorry. Next you'll be saying that up is down and black is white.

 

[Eoghann]

This is not a court of law, we don't have to prove everything we say beyond a reasonable doubt. The people on these boards are not aliens and don't live in a vacuum. We represent the most loyal repeat customers for the theme parks.

If a consumer product is already in high demand and then the price drops instead of going up, you contend that the demand wouldn't change? That makes no sense, sorry. Next you'll be saying that up is down and black is white.

No, it's not a court of law but it is generally a good idea to have something beyond "it sounds right" to back up an opinion. The fact that the people on this board are 1) fanatics, 2) self reporting and 3) unverifiable is exactly why they are statistically useless in gauging what if any portion of Disney's customer base has cut back. When people try to use them as evidence of something they are generally doing so in ignorance of how statistics or polling works and they think it means something it doesn't actually mean.

And whether you like or not there are entire lines of economic study devoted to price elasticity which is about the effect of price changes on demand. It is not simply the case that lower price equals higher demand.

 

[UncleMike101]

I don't know. I sort of feel like nothing is a good value anymore without some kind of deal.

Our primary incentive to vacation at WDW has been the discounts that we're offered each year.
The 30% room discount makes staying a week more wallet friendly.
Of course, free dining is a good incentive but it's never offered during the time frame that we can take our vacation.

 

[Eoghann]

Our primary incentive to vacation at WDW has been the discounts that we're offered each year.
The 30% room discount makes staying a week more wallet friendly.
Of course, free dining is a good incentive but it's never offered during the time frame that we can take our vacation.

So is it actually a deal or does it feel like a deal? It's an old retail trick to over-inflate the prices on items just so you can claim an impressive 25-50% markdown on them. Even though you never expected anyone to pay full price in the first place.

The fact that Disney even offers those sorts of discounts in the summer makes me wonder.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Economists talk about the elasticity of pricing. Some items are immune to what people think are the normal rules about increased pricing resulting in dropped sales. Comic books for example have increased in cover price dramatically above the rate of inflation but because the core market for them are essentially fanatics, those price increases don't result in sales drops.

There's also the factor of people thinking that a premium price equals a premium product. AOL found that increasing the monthly price it charged actually produced an increase in customers. Independent authors on Amazon have discovered the same thing when they move their book prices from $0.99 to $2.99, they actually sell more. I wouldn't be surprised if Disney experiences similar effects.

Everyone recommends reading Freakonomics and I would agree but perhaps an even better read because it doesn't just focus on economics but how what we think are careful logical decisions are anything but is Predictable Irrational by Dan Ariely. Fascinating stuff. It's amazing all the stupid things we do and then justify as logical. And marketers study this stuff.

I love freakonomics...it was fascination as a social commentary loosley based in consumer economics.

Loved Capital in the 21st Century too...

I'll take your advice and pick up the suggested book...I'm sure it will be a good read.

 

[Davey Jones II]

No, it's not a court of law but it is generally a good idea to have something beyond "it sounds right" to back up an opinion. The fact that the people on this board are 1) fanatics, 2) self reporting and 3) unverifiable is exactly why they are statistically useless in gauging what if any portion of Disney's customer base has cut back. When people try to use them as evidence of something they are generally doing so in ignorance of how statistics or polling works and they think it means something it doesn't actually mean.

And whether you like or not there are entire lines of economic study devoted to price elasticity which is about the effect of price changes on demand. It is not simply the case that lower price equals higher demand.

Every single time that Disney offers discounts and/or free dining (a way of temporarily lowering prices) they fill a lot more hotel rooms (in other words, the demand goes up). So once again, you will keep insisting that up is down?

As for the people who post here, we are not freaks whose opinion mean nothing. We are real and loyal Disney customers. It's well known that Disney insiders read these boards, because it's a source of free and valuable feedback for the company. If our opinion meant zero, as you like to believe, why would they read what the freaks have to say?

 

[UncleMike101]

So is it actually a deal or does it feel like a deal? It's an old retail trick to over-inflate the prices on items just so you can claim an impressive 25-50% markdown on them. Even though you never expected anyone to pay full price in the first place.

The fact that Disney even offers those sorts of discounts in the summer makes me wonder.

Of course it is and we could spend hours playing the "I know they know that I know so they allow for the fact that I know by raising the prices even more, which I know they do." game a la The Princess Bride.
The reality being that we take our vacation when we can and utilize whatever "discounts", whether real or perceived, that Disney offers.
The plain truth is that if the "discounts" don't allow the visit to fit within our budget we will have to look elsewhere to spend our vacation time.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Considering that lots of people have cut down the number of trips because of price increases, or simply feel priced out, it's pretty obvious that any price drop would swell crowds even more.

I try to not use generalities too much...I try to use historical trends or hard data to substantiate opinions...
...but I do do it from time to time and apologize.

This one...however...I gotta call out. Tough to make blanket assessments of business by referring to specifics actions taken by "lots"

First you have to be able to quantify what "lots" is?

Especially when you are using it to then describe what would then be "obvious"

 

[Eoghann]

Every single time that Disney offers discounts and/or free dining (a way of temporarily lowering prices) they fill a lot more hotel rooms (in other words, the demand goes up). So once again, you will keep insisting that up is down?

As for the people who post here, we are not freaks whose opinion mean nothing. We are real and loyal Disney customers. It's well known that Disney insiders read these boards, because it's a source of free and valuable feedback for the company. If our opinion meant zero, as you like to believe, why would they read what the freaks have to say?

There is a difference between temporarily lowering prices by offering a discount and simply across the board lowering of prices. People are incentivized to visit by discounts because they don't want to miss out on the "deal". Again this is a very well documented area of economics I'm not saying anything that isn't widely recognized. A general price rollback does not have the same effect.

At no point did I claim I meant our opinion means nothing. I said it is statistically useless. And they are because they're impossible to quantify in relation to the customer base as a whole. That's why Disney does proper surveys and it's why often people are rejected from surveys because they don't fit the criteria. Disney, nor any other company, does not use message boards as the basis for any business decisions.

Yes Disney likely has some people checking out various boards. Tracking reactions on social networks is a common strategy amongst companies. The aim is not to gather data, it is to identify conversation trends in social media relating to a brand and, where they need to, attempt to redirect negative trends because if the conversations became widespread enough and negative enough there would be a knock on effect. In some cases they may even choose to contact an individual directly and address their specific issues, this generates customer loyalty.

 

[Lothlórien]

"Free Dining" has always been an illusion anyway. It's not really free, you're paying full price for a room to get it. I've never understood why people get so excited about it.

I agree 150%.

We never stay in a value. Before purchasing DVC, we always did a cost analysis of free dining vs room discount and the room discount was always the better deal. When my family takes all of us to Disney, booking multiple rooms, the room discount is always the better deal as well.

For the Dining Plan in general, for my family, it is ridiculous to eat the most expensive meals at restaurants we may not really want to go to in order to get the most bang for our buck. When we compare Tables in Wonderland, the Dining Plan and paying out of pocket.... out of pocket is always the least expensive option.

 

[Lothlórien]

Disney, nor any other company, does not use message boards as the basis for any business decisions.

That is not correct. With absolutely certainty, I can tell you that is so far from accurate.

 

[circus4u]

I wonder how big of a deal it will be for Disney when people start hitting their breaking point and stop going to see the mouse? It will take that before they review it I believe. At this point, the parks are still filling up and people are still staying onsite, so there is no reason for them to change.

We stopped going two years ago. We made five trips that last year, flying from AZ, and stayed on property for all of them. Length of stay was 10-14 days for each trip. We decided we could not justify the cost when everywhere you went was surrounded by construction walls.

 

[Davey Jones II]

There is a difference between temporarily lowering prices by offering a discount and simply across the board lowering of prices. People are incentivized to visit by discounts because they don't want to miss out on the "deal". Again this is a very well documented area of economics I'm not saying anything that isn't widely recognized. A general price rollback does not have the same effect.

At no point did I claim I meant our opinion means nothing. I said it is statistically useless. And they are because they're impossible to quantify in relation to the customer base as a whole. That's why Disney does proper surveys and it's why often people are rejected from surveys because they don't fit the criteria. Disney, nor any other company, does not use message boards as the basis for any business decisions.

Yes Disney likely has some people checking out various boards. Tracking reactions on social networks is a common strategy amongst companies. The aim is not to gather data, it is to identify conversation trends in social media relating to a brand and, where they need to, attempt to redirect negative trends because if the conversations became widespread enough and negative enough there would be a knock on effect. In some cases they may even choose to contact an individual directly and address their specific issues, this generates customer loyalty.

Basic economics, common sense, and human nature, says that demand will increase when price decreases. Your fixation on "freakonomics" doesn't change that.

Anyway, I'm done playing ping pong with someone who refuses to make any sense. Over and out.

 

[TeresaWen]

We stopped going two years ago. We made five trips that last year, flying from AZ, and stayed on property for all of them. Length of stay was 10-14 days for each trip. We decided we could not justify the cost when everywhere you went was surrounded by construction walls.

We stopped staying onsite 2 years ago. Now we get a 2 bedroom suite with a full kitchen, living room, laundry room, dining room, send 2 baths for a week for less than one day in 200 sq foot room in the yacht club (where we could not be guaranteed a king bed)

This may be our last trip. We have annual passes & TIW card that expire in December. Tons of points on our Disney visa and cheap flights. With all the changes, price increase in restaurants (while giving away dining and making folks think they are getting the deal of the century), and making it impossible to get an adr or fast pass unless you stay in an overpriced shoe box, I am done.

We are two people. Free dining will never be a good discount and I refuse to subsidize free dining by paying the over inflated prices so after this trip we are done. Will stop using our Disney visa too.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Freakonomics style pricing conundrums aside, what's clear is that Disney had the equivalent of a very popular lemonade stand ... and instead of reacting to the success of their product by making and selling more lemonade they decided to take a decade plus vacation from significant new product development and instead apply as many MBA-inspired pricing and accounting tricks as they can. Such as complicated and often dubious discount promotions, timeshare conversions, ride rationing and crowd-cramming. Not to mention the largest possible price increases based on the assumption that their lemonade recipe is absolutely unique and immune to imitation and substitution. To strain the analogy just a little more ... squeezing the same lemon over and over.

 

[jade1]

1. Disney was never an inclusive destination...or "affordable". That hasn't and will never change.

Agreed 100% across the board.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Freakonomics style pricing conundrums aside, what's clear is that Disney had the equivalent of a very popular lemonade stand ... and instead of reacting to the success of their product by making and selling more lemonade they decided to take a decade plus vacation from significant new product development and instead apply as many MBA-inspired pricing and accounting tricks as they can. Such as complicated and often dubious discount promotions, timeshare conversions, ride rationing and crowd-cramming. Not to mention the largest possible price increases based on the assumption that their lemonade recipe is absolutely unique and immune to imitation and substitution. To strain the analogy just a little more ... squeezing the same lemon over and over.

I had a feeling you'd bring this gun to a knife fight...

And you are correct. For the next few years the pounders are going to be lauding "all this stuff" they're "heaping upon us"...

The 2 bil avatar land...the Orlando premium outlets annex (except at retail)...toy story and the jerky Star Wars sims gen 2 (REALLY hope I'm wrong about that one)...

But the reality is the "we're so busy because of the demand" has been created in a laboratory...so has my magic + and many ways the food situation and the hotel pricing...
...because Eisner and most especially Iger have sat and done a "net zero" addition policy (at best...might be negative) in wdw for 10 years. The record form 98-09 is honestly embarassing if you're gonna even attempt to maintain that the parks have been run "the Disney way".

And that damage is on the experience now in busy times and will continue to be a factor for years to come.

It's not really even an argument on paper. We are paying double for what is almost the same amount of physical entertainment. And it's hard to defend.

 

[kandb]

One thing I think Disney has done is not make it worth it to visit the parks for a few days. If we came down to Orlando and wanted to do other attractions (SeaWorld, Aquatica (love it), Gatorland) and wanted to spend a few days at WDW, it would be too expensive and not worth it. A 2 day ticket for our family of 5 would be around $1K. I would never spend a THOUSAND dollars to spend 2 days going to an amusement park, so therefore every time we go down, we want to visit WDW, so we make the whole vacation a WDW vacation, which includes the room, 10 day tickets and all food eaten on Disney property. Disney is smart and I think this is why they charge so much for a few day ticket.

 

[jade1]

I had a feeling you'd bring this gun to a knife fight...

And you are correct. For the next few years the pounders are going to be lauding "all this stuff" they're "heaping upon us"...

The 2 bil avatar land...the Orlando premium outlets annex (except at retail)...toy story and the jerky Star Wars sims gen 2 (REALLY hope I'm wrong about that one)...

But the reality is the "we're so busy because of the demand" has been created in a laboratory...so has my magic + and many ways the food situation and the hotel pricing...
...because Eisner and most especially Iger have sat and done a "net zero" addition policy (at best...might be negative) in wdw for 10 years. The record form 98-09 is honestly embarassing if you're gonna even attempt to maintain that the parks have been run "the Disney way".

And that damage is on the experience now in busy times and will continue to be a factor for years to come.

It's not really even an argument on paper. We are paying double for what is almost the same amount of physical entertainment. And it's hard to defend.

Maybe they could offer a half price ticket that doesn't include

Kali, exp everest, Fantasmic, RNR, TSM, Wishes, 7DMT, Soarin and Test Track.

 

[TwoMisfits]

One thing I think Disney has done is not make it worth it to visit the parks for a few days. If we came down to Orlando and wanted to do other attractions (SeaWorld, Aquatica (love it), Gatorland) and wanted to spend a few days at WDW, it would be too expensive and not worth it. A 2 day ticket for our family of 5 would be around $1K. I would never spend a THOUSAND dollars to spend 2 days going to an amusement park, so therefore every time we go down, we want to visit WDW, so we make the whole vacation a WDW vacation, which includes the room, 10 day tickets and all food eaten on Disney property. Disney is smart and I think this is why they charge so much for a few day ticket.

See, I'm the reverse...if I had a family of 5, I'd say there's no way I'd spend over $1550 just visiting one real park and 3 lesser children for 4 days...and instead, I'd get Universal power passes for my family of 5 for $1200 and I'd make sure to go back the following year...so, spending $600/year for main trip theme parks...and giving me the chance to try Sea World, LegoLand, Discovery Cove, Kennedy Space Center, Aquatica, the Merlin I-Drive attractions, dinner shows, museums/special exhibits, etc with my extra saved $950+!!

As I've mentioned before, last year I got Universal Power Passes (and 1 annual pass), LegoLand Day tickets, Seaworld and Aquatica tickets for $50/less per person than it would have cost me to get 4 day Disney tickets per person (at the time). This year, with Universal paid for, I now have an additional "free" vacation to which I've only added the I-Drive triple Merlin attraction for $20/person so far. I may add Aquatica or Legoland again with a great deal, or some attraction we haven't seen, but right now my ticket cost for this vacation is minimal. Disney pushed us to this after 2012 and I can say, we no longer miss it. I have 1 day passes to MK for if and when we just feel like seeing it, but we think we are gonna pass again this year (and since they don't expire, we can).