Hurricane Wilma

[JimMIA]

Overnight Hurricane Wilma has been upgraded to a Category FIVE hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 175 MPH, and gusts approaching 215 MPH. The central pressure of the storm may be the lowest (most intense) ever recorded in an Atlantic storm.

People in Florida, or coming to Florida this weekend should watch Wilma carefully. The storm is expected to weaken over the next three days, but it will still probably strike the lower west coast of Florida as a major hurricane with winds in the 120-140 MPH range.

The track of Wilma is going to be very deceptive to folks not used to watching hurricanes. Wilma is going to remain a major hurricane and plod NW through the northwestern Caribbean, either over the Yucatan (Mexico) or through the Yucatan Channel separating Mexico from Cuba. But soon after entering the Gulf of Mexico, Wilma is projected to make a sudden 90-degree shift in direction, gain speed rapidly, and dart toward Florida.

The expectations are for very slow movement before the turn, and then very, very fast movement toward Florida. Wilma is expected to move from the tip of the Yucatan to the Florida coast in less than 24 hours, and the timing of the storm is such that much of that movement will occur overnight Saturday.

Predicting a hurricane's movement 5 days out is very difficult, but the trend of the computer models has been moving the storm slightly westward with each advisory -- and, after the turn, that translates to a landfall more northward on the Florida coast. It would not take much of a shift to the west/north to bring the hurricane directly over WDW during the weekend.

The best source of accurate information -- as opposed to media hype -- is the National Hurricane Center website: www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[CarolMN]

Thanks for posting - was hoping you were still around as I haven't noticed any posts lately.

Sending good thoughts and prayers for any and all who might be in Wilma's path.

Best wishes -

 

[keef22]

Thanks, Jim. We're in Ohio and we're SUPPOSED to be leaving Saturday morning for our first night ever at HOME in SSR and then off to our first ever Disney Cruise Sunday morning.

I've been watching Wilma for a while now and it looks like things have changed to the point where we may be able to fly down Saturday. (At first, it looked like the projected path would take it over central FL Saturday morning!) Unfortunately, depending on the track, I know that still may not be a wise move. No reason to fly in Saturday so that we can hunker down and experience our first hurricane since Hugo back in '99.

I had a glimmer of hope for the shortest possible time last night when the folks at the Weather Channel mentioned that Isadore was in a similar situation earlier this year and had a similar forecast; but turned west after the trough that she was projected to ride into Florida fizzled out. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. At least the only thing I may be losing is my vacation. I can't imagine what it would be like to live in a place that ws threatened by a hurricane.

Best wishes to all of you in Florida.

 

[jiggerj]

Thanks JimMIA! I too was wondering about our own "personal Dis weatherman!" I am not heading down this weekend but I like to know what the weather is for down south. I appreciate you keeping us updated. Best wishes to our Florida friends!

 

[JimMIA]

Whenever you look at hurricane forecasts, the single most important thing you must remember is a hurricane is NOT a point on a map. It is a huge area of terrible weather.

For example, despite expected weakening by Saturday, the NHC still expects tropical storm force winds to extend out 150 miles in all directions across the front of the storm. That is a storm that is 300 miles across.

A better way to look at this is time, rather than distance. This storm is going to be moving fast when it hits Florida, but if it's moving 15 MPH, that still means TS force winds will hit 10 hours before the center of the storm arrives. TS force winds are usually the point where buses stop running, evacuations stop, the cops come off the street, and airports are shut down (which is no big deal, because the airlines will have repo'd their equipment out of harm's way anyway).

The current 5-day cone takes the center of Wilma along the southern edge of Lake Okeechobee on Sunday, but WDW is well within 150 miles of there. Also, we're looking at the five-day projections, and 5 day tracks miss predicting the center location by an average of almost 400 miles! When you look at those cones, it's very important to remember the center of the storm could well be anywhere within that cone, and whereever it hits, the weather throughout Florida is going to be bad.

WDW (and Port Canaveral) are only a tiny bit off the midline of the cone. Even an almost unnoticeable shift in course anytime over the next four days could bring the storm right over WDW. For example, if the storm moves NW through the Yucatan channel just a couple of knots faster than expected, that could put the turning point further northwest and bring the path through Florida a hundred miles or more further north than NHC is currently expecting. A slower accelleration after the turn could bring the storm over the Keys and Bahamas, and it could miss the Florida mainland entirely.

Stay tuned, because we really can't predict where this thing is going yet. We'll have a pretty good idea by Friday afternoon, but right now, it could go anywhere in that cone.

****
With regard to my limited posting lately, I've been helping out at Everglades National Park for the last couple of weeks. They had an unexpected vacancy, and I've been volunteering there for five years, so I'm filling in as an emergency-hire Ranger Jim for 60 days.

So, I'll be around, but I won't be posting as much as I used to.

 

[chris1gill]

JimMIA... you seem to be knowledgeable about this... what would be your recommendation for those of us arriving Thursday, not leaving until Monday? What would you recommend we do? Stay home, or come down?? If it's not safe for us to be in a DVC resort, then I think we should cancel... how safe will we be?

 

[JimMIA]

JimMIA... you seem to be knowledgeable about this... what would be your recommendation for those of us arriving Thursday, not leaving until Monday? What would you recommend we do? Stay home, or come down?? If it's not safe for us to be in a DVC resort, then I think we should cancel... how safe will we be?

First of all, you'll be safe. Don't worry about being at risk; you won't be.

But there are two bigger questions: 1) What are your options for changing your plans?, and 2) Since you are doing a short visit, how enjoyable is the stay going to be?

I would say your weather will probably be okay Thursday and Friday. Depending on what the storm does, the weather could deteriorate on Saturday...especially late Saturday. Or it could be beautiful, or it could be rainy and windy all day Saturday. I'm in Miami and we had a few strong squalls yesterday afternoon, which I think were from the outflow of the storm. The current prediction is for landfall around midnight Saturday night, but it is still way to early to know where or when yet.

I'd look up the zip for Lake Buena Vista, FL and then go to www.weatherunderground.com and do a search for weather for that zip. You'll get the current weather, but you'll also be able to see the extended forecast in some detail, so you should be able to get an idea of what Saturday will be like. I find their info pretty darn accurate most of the time.

 

[LIFERBABE]

I have family currently at SSR and checking into Vero Beach tomorrow. They are scheduled to depart MCO on Saturday.

Should they go to VB? Or should I try to find them accomomodations at WDW. They are on my points right now.

Thanks Again.

 

[JimMIA]

The short story of the 11 AM Wednesday information is that the projected path through Florida has shifted very slightly northward.

It is WAY too early to put much stock in projections four days out. Having said that, the revised path takes the storm ashore between Naples and Ft. Myers and along the northern edge of Lake Okeechobee, which is within 100 miles of WDW, and then pretty much right over the top of Vero. On the bright side, the hurricane will be moving over land for more than 100 miles before hitting either place, and will diminsh rapidly once it comes ashore.

Stay tuned to www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[JimMIA]

It will be interesting to see what the 5 PM advisory brings.

The computer models have been unusually similar since Wilma was just a Tropical Depression. Now, all of a sudden, the 2 PM computer runs are all over the place.

Hopefully things will sort out during the night and we'll have a better idea what is going on by the 11 AM advisory tomorrow.

 

[JimMIA]

The 5 PM forecast and discussions are out, and as I expected the forecast track has not changed much. If you just look at the map, you see the track has moved from the north side of Lake Okeechobee to just south of the lake.

However, if you read the discussion, you see that they have absolutely no idea where the storm is going past about two days. The solution for one of their main models changed from off New England five days from now...to still south of Cuba five days from now! Go figure!

Hopefully, tomorrow will bring better data and a better idea of where this puppy's going!

 

[byoung]

Whatever happens I am going in 2 days Wilma or not.

 

[JimMIA]

The forecast is a little bit more settled this morning, and should become more reliable over the next couple of days.

At 5 AM EDT, Wilma was 195 miles SE of Cozumel, Mexico and should already be affecting Cozumel with tropical storm force winds and 12-foot seas. The Cozumel-Cancun-Merida area of the Yucatan is going to get pounded for most of the next 48 hours with 150 mph winds and storm surge. The official forecast discussion says they expect no strengthening, but the official forecast advisory predicts continued intensification until the storm comes off the Yucatan, so you can take your choice. Either way, this is going to be a very bad upper Cat 4 - low Cat 5 storm for the Yucatan.

Also, some of the models show the storm stalling for 24 hours or so over the Yucatan, although the official forecast shows it moving through slowly. Obviously, the longer the storm affects the area, the worse the damage will be.

The path through Florida is still very difficult to predict this far out. The official 5-day cone shows the storm moving ashore around Naples Sunday afternoon/evening, with 125 mph winds (strong Cat 3). Wilma is now projected to pass slightly south of Lake Okeechobee, and exit Florida in the West Palm Beach-Stuart area.

This timing is somewhat later than predicted yesterday, and on this track, both WDW and Vero are still well within the cone.

However, all of the computer models show the path considerably south of the official track. 3 of the 4 models currently available show the storm moving roughly up the Florida Keys, over Miami, then out to sea. One of the models takes the storm from the Yucatan, over western Cuba, and then over the central Bahamas. (We LIKE that model! )

If the storm follows the official forecast track, I would expect heavy impact at Vero Sunday night. The path of the storm (if it goes where they now say) should create heavy surf and strong winds coming off the ocean in the Vero area. You'll probably have bad weather at WDW Sunday and much of Monday, but probably no major impact.

All of that, of course, is subject to hourly radical change, so keep an eye on the storm.

 

[keef22]

For those of you who have experience,

Let's play out a scenario:

If the storm follows the track that they're saying now (and by that I mean that the eye barely clears the Yucatan by Saturday morning), Do you think that the flights coming in to Orlando on Saturday early afternoon would still be allowed in?

We're hoping to get in Saturday and hop on our Sunday morning cruise before it gets bad...

I realize that Saturday is still 2 days away; but I'm kind of looking for signs indicating that our flight would be able to land in Orlando.

 

[JimMIA]

For those of you who have experience,

Let's play out a scenario:

If the storm follows the track that they're saying now (and by that I mean that the eye barely clears the Yucatan by Saturday morning), Do you think that the flights coming in to Orlando on Saturday early afternoon would still be allowed in?

We're hoping to get in Saturday and hop on our Sunday morning cruise before it gets bad...

I realize that Saturday is still 2 days away; but I'm kind of looking for signs indicating that our flight would be able to land in Orlando.

I think you will get in, but a lot depends on the storm, obviously.

They will keep the airport open as long as they can, and it's possible that MCO will not close at all.

I'd say the bigger question is whether the cruise will go. If you're going from Miami, Tampa or Port Everglades (Ft. Lauderdale), you might...depending on where the storm is. From those ports, they have a chance of scooting out of the way of the storm.

But I wonder whether anything will go out of Port Canaveral...especially on Sunday morning. If they go out of there with the storm to the south (and not very far south), they are trapped between the storm and the coast. If you're going on a Disney cruise from Port Canaveral, I'd sure start checking with them before you fly down.

 

[JimMIA]

There's not a lot of "new" news at the 11 AM advisory.

The projections have slowed the progress of the storm toward Florida slightly, and both the computer models and forecast track have moved back a little northward. The current track comes ashore about Naples, skirts the south shore of Lake Okeechobee (which is a few miles north from the 8 AM track) and exits around Stuart-Ft. Pierce (again, slightly north of 8 AM).

WDW is well within the cone, and Vero is almost in the bullseye now.

Obviously, it is still a couple of days too early to tell where the storm will go, but it's a good idea to keep an eye on it.

 

[kimpossible]

Do you still think it is safe to go down on Sat? Would DVC cancel the ressies if things are dangerous?

 

[JimMIA]

Again, there is not much change in the projected route of Wilma over Florida, but the timing has been drawn out more.

Wilma is now expected to hit the Yucatan (Cozumel, Cancun, etc.) and stall for the next 36-48 hours, then move NE through Florida, passing just south of Lake Okeechobee, and out to sea in the Ft. Pierce-Stuart area on the East Coast. That journey across Florida -- once predicted for Saturday -- now appears to be an Monday night event.

However, to give you an idea of the size of a typical hurricane, Wilma is more than 500 miles from Miami, but we received several feeder bands with heavy rain and gusty winds last night, and will continue to get them now until Wilma passes by.

I won't be posting today, but for accurate information, log on to www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[Judique]

Again, there is not much change in the projected route of Wilma over Florida, but the timing has been drawn out more.

Wilma is now expected to hit the Yucatan (Cozumel, Cancun, etc.) and stall for the next 36-48 hours, then move NE through Florida, passing just south of Lake Okeechobee, and out to sea in the Ft. Pierce-Stuart area on the East Coast. That journey across Florida -- once predicted for Saturday -- now appears to be an Monday night event.

However, to give you an idea of the size of a typical hurricane, Wilma is more than 500 miles from Miami, but we received several feeder bands with heavy rain and gusty winds last night, and will continue to get them now until Wilma passes by.

I won't be posting today, but for accurate information, log on to www.nhc.noaa.gov

Jim,

Thank you very much for posting this information. It's been extremely helpful. I have a visit planned for Food and Wine....we were arriving this weekend. I'm now busy revamping my plans, and your posts have definitely helped in the decision making process.

 

[JimMIA]

Nothing much has changed as of 5 PM...and nothing is likely to change for the next 24 hours or so.

The projected track through Florida continues to move around, from just south of Lake Okeechobee (130 miles or so from WDW) to just north of the lake (<100 miles). The projection this moment is for north of the lake.

The reality is that the storm is going to almost stall over the Yucatan and where it goes in Florida will depend on when it starts moving off the Yucatan and how quickly the ridge holding it moves out of the way.

For now, WDW is still well within the cone and Vero is the bullseye again. It appears that Wilma will weaken a LOT over the Yucatan, then strengthen, then weaken again, before hitting around the Naples-Ft. Myers area. However, we have to remember that this is the storm that increased from Cat 2 to Cat 5 in 12 hours...so anything can happen.

Wilma looks like a Monday afternoon/overnight event, but the weather throughout peninsular Florida will be pretty crummy all day Monday and Tuesday.

As Wilma moves through Florida, she will be a system with tropical storm conditions (Jeanne killed almost 3,000 people in Haiti last year as a tropical storm) over an area 350 miles wide and almost 300 miles deep. So the weather is going to be very un-Florida like Monday and Tuesday.

There will probably be no benefit to posting for another 24 hours or so...until the storm starts to move.

For accruate info with no media hype, go to www.nhc.noaa.gov