Hurricane Matthew - Keep your guard up -- still a dangerous storm

[JimMIA]

First of all -- com_op_2000, THANK YOU for updating folks!

I was actually going to PM you and ask that you do some updates because we've been in the weeds that last couple of days.

On Sunday, we were undecided whether we should risk a trip to Washington DC. My daughter is a competitive figure skater, and our most important competition of the year (US Figure Skating's South Atlantic Regional Championship) is being held in a Washington suburb this week. It was not until 6 AM on Monday that we actually decided to go. By last night, however, the projected path of the storm had changed enough to make us nervous.

With the 2 AM advisory last night, I made a decision that we had to return to Miami today. We have an 88 year old Grandma who simply can't be by herself in a storm, so we finally had to admit defeat and come home. It's a big disappointment for DD (they look forward to Regionals all year), but we really didn't have any choice. So we're back and will be having big fun putting up shutters tomorrow and moving GM from her house to ours.

*****
There has been a continued shifting to the west (bad thing) of some of the guidance, and with the 5 PM advisories, the Hurricane Watch was extended southward a tiny bit and now covers from the Brevard/Volusia County line to Golden Beach in Miami-Dade County. The Tropical Storm Watch was extended southward as well, and now covers Golden Beach to the Seven Mile Bridge just south of Marathon in the Florida Keys.

I hope not, but I would not be surprised to see a further shift to the left, which would bring the storm closer to Florida and increase the possibility of a Florida landfall, and increase the threat to South Florida. We'll see what develops tomorrow.

Everybody say a quick prayer for the poor people of Haiti. I am dreading the news reports from Haiti over the next couple of days.

 

[JimMIA]

Fortunately, our trip isn't until next Friday (the 14th) so hopefully Matthew will be a non-issue by then...

Yes, it will be.

...but right now, our biggest concern is for a co-worker of mine who moved to Haiti in June with his wife and two pre-teen daughters. They literally sold off almost everything they had, left their jobs (he's been granted a LOA for 2 years) and moved to Haiti to do missionary and medical work. Needless to say, they are terrified. They have been updating us on Facebook but they expected to lose their connection sometime overnight so the last update we had from them was at 10pm yesterday.

My trip plans are nothing for me to worry about right now. These guys are worried about losing their lives.

Kristen, where are they in Haiti?

Keep us posted on their well-being, and we wish them the best. Must be very special people to make that kind of commitment and sacrifice!

 

[kristenrice]

Yes, it will be.


Kristen, where are they in Haiti?

Keep us posted on their well-being, and we wish them the best. Must be very special people to make that kind of commitment and sacrifice!

The are living and working in LaGonave but they've moved to Anse a Galets for shelter. His last update was around 3pm today. He said they are dry and secure and still have power. He reported rain, wind and lightning from the back end of the hurricane.but so far, no reports of the damage. I'm sure there will be plenty to report once the storm has completely passed, but for now, all is well.

 

[Sandisw]

Ugg...we are schedule to fly from Syr to MCo on Friday morning and if we get canceled, the whole trip will have to be off. I'm trying to decide what to do..hoping to wait to Thursday. At this point, the points will become holding points so hoping to wait to the last possible second to make a decision. Jetblue will refund the tickets with no penalty so not out there...But so so so wanted to be there for F & W....

 

[CarolMN]

Prayers for all in Matthew's path.

 

[JimMIA]

The are living and working in LaGonave but they've moved to Anse a Galets for shelter. His last update was around 3pm today. He said they are dry and secure and still have power. He reported rain, wind and lightning from the back end of the hurricane.but so far, no reports of the damage. I'm sure there will be plenty to report once the storm has completely passed, but for now, all is well.

Okay, so they're on the island, and were evacuated to the most sheltered point. That's good news.

The most vulnerable part of Haiti would be the SW peninsula west of Port au Prince, because that was the epicenter of the landfall. The actual landfall was at Les Anglais, near the western tip of the peninsula, but the most severe winds would have been east of there, and the storm surge should have been very strong. Hopefully the worst of the surge occurred at low tide.

But really, anywhere in Haiti is vulnerable. Haiti is a very poor place in terms of natural resources, and an enormous percentage of the countryside has been denuded by people cutting down trees to make charcoal. With the vegetation gone, there is nothing to hold the soil, so landslides and mudslides are potential killers just about anywhere in Haiti...even well away from the landfall point.

To make matters worse, the heaviest rainfall has been to the east of the path of the storm (which is to say, most of Haiti) and there has also consistently been a large area of very heavy rain WAY far east that extended even beyond the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic (+/- 400 miles east of the landfall). So all of Haiti, and the eastern part of the DR got enough rain to cause catastrophic flooding and landslide/mudslide problems.

Hopefully your friends are okay and were spared the worst of the storm.

 

[JimMIA]

Ugg...we are schedule to fly from Syr to MCo on Friday morning and if we get canceled, the whole trip will have to be off. I'm trying to decide what to do..hoping to wait to Thursday. At this point, the points will become holding points so hoping to wait to the last possible second to make a decision. Jetblue will refund the tickets with no penalty so not out there...But so so so wanted to be there for F & W....

If you can't get there because of the storm, I'm sure DVC will make some accommodations. They've never been stupid contract-followers in the past in situations like this.

Whether MCO will be open Friday morning is another matter. You'll just have to wait and see if your flight is canceled.

 

[CarolMN]

At MCO now. Decided to leave a day early & feel fortunate to have been able to change our flights.

Keeping all in Matthew's path in my prayers.

 

[jekjones1558]

At MCO now. Decided to leave a day early & feel fortunate to have been able to change our flights.

Keeping all in Matthew's path in my prayers.

We just arrived at BWV yesterday (Tuesday) and it looks like Thursday and Friday are both going to be rough. Rain this afternoon too. I guess the weather gods are not smiling on us this trip. Glad you are going to be safe in MN, Carol. I think we will be safe but the kids we have along will probably have serious cabin fever by Friday night.

 

[vinmar4]

We were able to change or flight from Friday am to Sat am with Southwest, better safe then sorry IMHO.
Praying for the victims

 

[JimMIA]

There are two disturbing things to report from the 11 AM Wednesday advisories and commentary.

Hurricane Matthew has temporarily decreased in intensity because of interaction with Cuba and Haiti-- now a Category 3 storm with 120 MPH sustained winds, gusting to 145 MPH. The storm is between the eastern end of Cuba and the island of Long Island in the south-central Bahamas. Matthew is moving NW at 12 MPH and is projected to continue on that path today, bending a few degrees to the westward on Thursday.

Matthew is reorganizing and will regain Category 4 intensity as it enters the Bahamas where it will have very warm waters and high humidity to draw power from, and no significant land elevations. This path marches Matthew right up through the middle of the Bahamas, roughly directly over both Nassau and Freeport, and could have devastating effects in the middle and northern Bahamas, which are going to have both severe winds and heavy storm surge.

In addition to the threat to the Bahamas, there are two disturbing threats to Florida.

First of all, the track has moved closer to the Florida coast and the storm is expected to be on, or very near, the coast on Friday morning -- generally somewhere between Vero Beach and St. Augustine, with the Cocoa Beach area being in the crosshairs. Actual landfall is very possible, but proceeding up the coast just offshore could actually be worse.

Because of the counter-clockwise rotation of hurricane winds, very heavy storm surges will hit all of the Florida coast ahead of the main body of the storm. The worst storm surges are expected from West Palm Beach north to Daytona. For DVCers, that means a very significant threat to the VB resort, and probably pretty nasty weather at WDW Thursday and Friday. I haven't checked, but I would expect the VB resort to be closed and evacuated today if it hasn't been already.

The second thing is even more disturbing. Two of the most reliable models (GFS and the European) are both showing a significant possibility of Matthew following the US coastline up to about the SC/NC border area, and then looping back around through the northern Bahamas and back into South Florida. The NHC thinks enough of those models that they have incorporated the start of that loop into their 5-day path. That path would take the storm over much cooler waters than it's in now, which would reduce intensity a good bit, but it is still a very troubling prospect -- especially for the northern Bahamas which is already going to bear the brunt of a Cat 4 tomorrow. To have even a weak tropical storm a few days after a Cat 4 could be very difficult.

Here's the 5PM Wednesday 5-day track, showing the looping back thing:

[ETA: Hmmm, that's interesting! The map automatically updates itself, so the map you see will be the most current.]

I'll post more later, but right now I have to go put the rest of our shutters up.

 

[kristenrice]

My friend in Haiti updated at 10am today and said that their house is 100% intact. He said that the damage is bad, but does not appear to be as bad as predicted. They will know more in the next few days when it is safe to venture further out.

 

[bobbiwoz]

My friend in Haiti updated at 10am today and said that their house is 100% intact. He said that the damage is bad, but does not appear to be as bad as predicted. They will know more in the next few days when it is safe to venture further out.

Wow.
Prayers for all in Haiti.

 

[JimMIA]

Weird Hurricane Warning for Orlando area:

The National Weather Service issued a weird Hurricane WARNING alert for the Orange/Osceola counties area. The warning was issued at 11 AM today, but it expires at 7:15 PM this evening. Which makes zero sense.

Here's a link to the Orange County alert: https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwac...FL.MLBTCVMLB.85c90271cc5b01fc7989f49548024003

Anybody in the Orlando/WDW area know what is going on???

 

[Sandisw]

Well, we ended up canceling the trip. We were only going to be there till Monday and worried that if they canceled Thursday flights, and then our Friday flight as well, that getting out Saturday would even be tough. We rebooked a trip for December...got three nights in a 1 bedroom at VGF for a long weekend.. DVC was great and because of the hurricane warning, we got our points back without restrictions and even would have put back borrowed points had we used any. Jetblue gave us full credit to use toward our December flight and even Priceline refunded our entire car rental fee that we paid through Name Your Own price. Thankful it all worked out okay.

 

[Deb & Bill]

My son told me that SeaWorld closed today and schools are closed in Orlando.

 

[com_op_2000]

Sorry, busy the past 24 hours with work hurricane prep.
Most area attractions are closed on Thursday and Friday.
MK has cancelled MNSSHP for Thursday night.
Orange County where most of WDW resides is closing all offices today at noon and will be closed on Friday.
Be aware, that Fla might be getting a double dose of Hurricane Matthew:
Today/Friday, then he moves up the coast to NC, then circles out into the Atlantic (staying at a level 2), and then slamming back into the Atlantic coast of FLa on Monday/Tuesday between Miami and Daytona (at this time).

 

[dawne98]

 

[dawne98]

Weird Hurricane Warning for Orlando area:

The National Weather Service issued a weird Hurricane WARNING alert for the Orange/Osceola counties area. The warning was issued at 11 AM today, but it expires at 7:15 PM this evening. Which makes zero sense.

Here's a link to the Orange County alert: https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwac...FL.MLBTCVMLB.85c90271cc5b01fc7989f49548024003

Anybody in the Orlando/WDW area know what is going on???

IT's not weird to get a warning a Cat 4 hurricane is going to hit us tonight into Friday!

 

[dawne98]

Parks at Disney are closing at 5 pm and not going to be open Friday...