Hurricane Matthew - Keep your guard up -- still a dangerous storm

[dawne98]

 

[gmboy95]

Ugg...we are schedule to fly from Syr to MCo on Friday morning and if we get canceled, the whole trip will have to be off. I'm trying to decide what to do..hoping to wait to Thursday. At this point, the points will become holding points so hoping to wait to the last possible second to make a decision. Jetblue will refund the tickets with no penalty so not out there...But so so so wanted to be there for F & W....

I am hoping DVC will have some kind of policy around these hurricane cancellations, considering the closure of the airport

 

[gmboy95]

Well, we ended up canceling the trip. We were only going to be there till Monday and worried that if they canceled Thursday flights, and then our Friday flight as well, that getting out Saturday would even be tough. We rebooked a trip for December...got three nights in a 1 bedroom at VGF for a long weekend.. DVC was great and because of the hurricane warning, we got our points back without restrictions and even would have put back borrowed points had we used any. Jetblue gave us full credit to use toward our December flight and even Priceline refunded our entire car rental fee that we paid through Name Your Own price. Thankful it all worked out okay.

well that answered that question!!!

 

[wdrl]

I am hoping DVC will have some kind of policy around these hurricane cancellations, considering the closure of the airport

DVC has had a hurricane policy for several years. Its included in this article.

 

[JimMIA]

At 11 AM, Matthew was centered right on top of Nassau, Bahamas, packing 140 mph winds gusting to 165. The storm is moving NW at about 12 mph. The chart in Post #30 above automatically updates, so you can look there to get the latest position and projected path.

It's too early to tell whether the storm will actually make landfall in Florida, but that won't make much difference. The whole Atlantic coast is going to be pounded with heavy onshore winds and storm surge. In many ways, a storm passing by just offshore is worse than a direct hit. DVC's Vero Beach resort, of course, is in that part of the coast which should really take a pounding.

Away from the coast, we are on the weaker side of the storm, so the winds will be much less and we shouldn't have storm surge issues. Depending on where you live, you could have some local flooding if you get a lot of rain.

50 Kt winds extend out about 50 miles from the center of the storm, so the WDW area should be getting +/- 50 mph winds with gusts higher. That's enough to do some damage, and certainly enough to make it unsafe to be outdoors, but nowhere near hurricane conditions. Orlando's winds will start building early this evening and should be peak tomorrow afternoon.

As far as Miami is concerned, Matthew is one degree of longitude east of where I was expecting it at this point, which puts it 50-55 miles further away from us than I was expecting. Our max winds should only be about 50 mph as well, but they are just starting to build. Our winds will tail off to normal levels around 5-6 AM.

 

[JimMIA]

IT's not weird to get a warning a Cat 4 hurricane is going to hit us tonight into Friday!

No, of course not. The weird part was they issued the warning at 11 AM and said it expired at 715 PM last night! Probably a typo.

 

[ScubaCat]

Looks like parks are closing at 5:00pm today and all day tomorrow. Good luck, everyone!

 

[disneynutz]

It has been reported that WDW is moving guests from Fort Wilderness cabins, hoop is cancelled, also THV and Poly bungalows.

Bill

 

[MASrules]

It has been reported that WDW is moving guests from Fort Wilderness cabins, hoop is cancelled, also THV and Poly bungalows.

Bill

We are scheduled to arrive at THV on Saturday. DVC called today an told us we were going to be in a two bedroom at OKW on Saturday and could not check into THV until Sunday

THree bedrooms to two is going to be pretty tight that first night. THey did say if we could not make it to party for the senses on Sat night they would refund our money....so that is good.

 

[JimMIA]

I've been watching the satellite views of Matthew, and the storm is very slightly EAST of where we expected it to be and also slightly east of where the tracking maps show it. In fact, it's probably 50 miles east of the projected path -- which may be good news for people at WDW.

The projected track shows Matthew passing between the northern Bahamian island of Grand Bahama (where Freeport is) and the Bimini chain to the SW. For a reference point, the west end of Grand Bahama Island is about 60 miles from West Palm Beach. But instead of passing between West End and Bimini, the storm appears headed directly toward Freeport...an additional 25 miles east of West End, and probably 50 miles or so east of the projected path.

The storm has been on a very straight path at 325 degrees for hours. The general language of hurricane reports calls that NW, but it's actually 10 degrees to the right of NW...or farther from the Florida coast. Matthew has increased forward speed to 14 mph, which is also a good thing unless you're scrambling at the last minute to put up shutters.

So, long story short, we may see a less threatening picture for WDW in the next advisory -- but people along Florida's coast should take all precautions and really pay attention to local emergency management information.

 

[jekjones1558]

I've been watching the satellite views of Matthew, and the storm is very slightly EAST of where we expected it to be and also slightly east of where the tracking maps show it. In fact, it's probably 50 miles east of the projected path -- which may be good news for people at WDW.

The projected track shows Matthew passing between the northern Bahamian island of Grand Bahama (where Freeport is) and the Bimini chain to the SW. For a reference point, the west end of Grand Bahama Island is about 60 miles from West Palm Beach. But instead of passing between West End and Bimini, the storm appears headed directly toward Freeport...an additional 25 miles east of West End, and probably 50 miles or so east of the projected path.

The storm has been on a very straight path at 325 degrees for hours. The general language of hurricane reports calls that NW, but it's actually 10 degrees to the right of NW...or farther from the Florida coast. Matthew has increased forward speed to 14 mph, which is also a good thing unless you're scrambling at the last minute to put up shutters.

So, long story short, we may see a less threatening picture for WDW in the next advisory -- but people along Florida's coast should take all precautions and really pay attention to local emergency management information.

Thanks for all the updates, Jim. I noticed on recent TV coverage that the path seems to have shifted ever so slightly to the east, and even a few miles can make a big difference for some inland communities. Just now progress has slowed to 13 mph so hopefully that doesn't go much slower. Your commitment to keeping us informed on the DIS is much appreciated. The local TV stations here at WDW are also doing a terrific job of covering this.

 

[dawne98]

 

[JimMIA]

Yeah, Orlando is getting the first rainbands from Matthew. Winds at Lake Buena Vista are still under 10 mph, tho.

The most we've had in our area SW of Miami has been about 30 mph, although they keep saying they will go a little higher. LBV is projected at 50 -- as we were earlier today, but we haven't gotten anywhere near there.

 

[YoYoAurora]

Yeah, Orlando is getting the first rainbands from Matthew. Winds at Lake Buena Vista are still under 10 mph, tho.

The most we've had in our area SW of Miami has been about 30 mph, although they keep saying they will go a little higher. LBV is projected at 50 -- as we were earlier today, but we haven't gotten anywhere near there.

Hunker down and stay safe!

And tell Matthew that he's not welcome in SC. We're barring the door and pulling up the welcome mat.

 

[ScubaCat]

I was there for a previous hurricane (Wilma?) and they opened MK and epcot at noon the following day for resort guests only when it turned out to be less severe then predicted. We'll see what happens.

 

[JimMIA]

Well, that little shift to the right noted in Post 50 above moved Matthew just far enough offshore to reduce the intensity of the offshore winds striking coastal areas. That translated into much lower winds in the WDW area. I haven't researched any of their numbers, but I'd expect nothing more than a bad weather day with a good bit of rain and some moderate winds, possibly not even reaching tropical storm force (39 mph).

HOWEVER...as always with hurricanes, the storm surge is the most dangerous part of a hurricane. And as explained below by Bob Henson of Weather Underground, wind strength is a poor indicator of storm surge. That is the very real weakness of our Category 1-5 assessment system. There are just too many other important factors (tides, structure of the continental shelf in various locations, topography of the land, etc, etc.). It's also why I've been saying that a path just offshore may not be the blessing many think. Bob gives as good of an explanation as you're going to get.

Hurricane-force winds are possible as far north as coastal Georgia and southern South Carolina later on Friday, but the primary threat here will be high water--the most deadly aspect of U.S. hurricanes. Because of the gradual expansion of Matthew’s wind field, its direction of motion, and the largely concave geometry of the coastline, barrier islands and inlets from north FL to southern SC remain at risk of major storm surge even if Matthew remains offshore. Late Thursday night, NHC was projecting the potential for coastal inundations of 7 to 11 feet from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including parts of the St. Johns River between the coast and Jacksonville. Breaking waves of up to 20 - 25 feet are possible atop the coastal surge.

Time and again in recent years, we’ve seen hurricanes weaken in terms of peak winds as they approach the coast, yet push far more water onshore than residents expected. This is one reason why the Saffir-Simpson scale no longer directly relates its strength categories to storm surge: peak winds near the center are an unreliable index to how much surge a hurricane may actually produce. Even if Matthew weakens and stays offshore as projected, surge levels in some areas (especially far north Florida and Georgia) may be the highest observed in many decades, and I fear that many coastal residents will underestimate this risk.

As this is written, Matthew has moved close enough to the coast between Daytona Beach and Jacksonville to bring the western eyewall of the storm to the coastal areas. Matthew is still packing sustained winds of 105 mph with gusts to 130, so there is a possibility of very strong winds along the beach areas. And of course, there is the possibility of catastrophic damage on beach areas if they receive the 7-11 foot storm surge and 20-foot breaking waves on top of that.

So, despite the storm weakening, anyone in coastal north Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina should keep a close eye on this storm and people in Georgia and South Carolina should finish their preparations as soon as possible.

 

[JimMIA]

And of course, people will be people -- and even moreso under stress. We had a bit of a brawl at a Walmart in the northern area of Miami-Dade County.

And of course, the second thing they did was put it on Facebook and YouTube!

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-gardens/article106628762.html

 

[Deb & Bill]

IT's not weird to get a warning a Cat 4 hurricane is going to hit us tonight into Friday!

Jim posted that on Wednesday, not Thursday or Friday.

 

[Deb & Bill]

We are scheduled to arrive at THV on Saturday. DVC called today an told us we were going to be in a two bedroom at OKW on Saturday and could not check into THV until Sunday

THree bedrooms to two is going to be pretty tight that first night. THey did say if we could not make it to party for the senses on Sat night they would refund our money....so that is good.

You still have beds for nine at OKW in a two bedroom villa. Plus one of them is a king bed (you won't get a king at a THV). One king, two queens, a queen sleeper and a twin sleeper chair beat those in a THV every time.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I was there for a previous hurricane (Wilma?) and they opened MK and epcot at noon the following day for resort guests only when it turned out to be less severe then predicted. We'll see what happens.

Problem is the curfew for people on the roads. CMs to clean up the parks won't be able to get there until later on today to start cleanup.