Hurricane Irma?

[TinkerBelle_325]

The models all seem to be tightening up and reflecting the same general path. There is only one, that I have seen that takes Irma up along the eastern seaboard and only one model that shows it entering the Gulf of Mexico. All the others show it going into Florida, at various different spots but because Florida is so narrow a lot of it will be impacted. I feel so sorry for whoever is going to be hit by this storm as well as all those people who have saved and planned for many years and are not able to modify their plans.

Today the EURO had 2 runs, the GFS 3 runs (another coming at midnight). While all these runs have the track in a slightly different place there *IS* a trend that the tracks are moving a bit further east with each run. According to hurricane experts, the trends are the thing to watch. Still a day or two until the models really converge and tighten with confidence.

 

[Alicialee05]

If people had free dining booked and have to reschedule their trips and the dates they are rescheduling fall into the dates that were originally scheduled for free dining, Disney SHOULD honor peoples free dining offer. If they do not, I will be very disappointed in Disney. This is no ones fault and Disney should do the right thing.

CM told my TA today that if you change dates you will lose free dining. Sad, but so far that seems to be the consensus.
I'm waiting to cancel until later in the week so we can figure out when to reschedule to.

 

[SpookyJ]

Well, my dog will be excited if we can bring him to my parents as intended after all. As for me, I no longer feel anything one way or another. Goodnight everyone and best wishes for all your plans.

 

[AngiTN]

Hi! Hope your plan works out. We thought about doing that all, but when you switch your SW reservations, I was told your ticket then goes to nonrefundable. Aka if something happens and you have to cancel altogether, you're out of luck or only get a travel voutcher in its stead. Did you get that same information, or are you just willing to swallow the cost in the case that Sat morning flight is canceled, or if you decide to cancel your entire trip?

Our flights with SW are always nonrefundable. I never book the refundable fares. They are all too expensive with SW. The ones we book are always fares that go back on as a voucher if you cancel. So sounds the same to me.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

I know that no one may have a solid answer but I'll even settle for a best guess at this point, let me be clear I would like this stupid hurricane to go back out to sea and leave everyone the hell alone, BUT if that isn't the case and it does end up hitting southern Florida and leaving Orlando untouched is there a chance they will still close or cancel flights flying into MCO? I have ZERO experience with any kind of hurricane and I know it's hard to say, I'm just trying to get the best idea I can.

At this point it is still a possibility that they will close MCO at some point. Once the NHC has more confidence in the model tracks they will update their projected path. When they do that decisions will be made regarding closures. Matthew was supposed to make landfall on the east coast not too far from Orlando so they closed MCO for about 32-34 hours. It ended up wobbling out to sea a bit more, but it was still the safest decision.

 

[wonder whisper]

Yes, it is a POSSIBLE path. One of many. No one here is saying that its a course set in stone.

Yes, a possible projected path out of the thousands out there where the particular one being promoted just happened to be a path (one contrarian to almost all the other major ones out there) which conveniently takes the storm away from Florida and Disney.

Which hints at "shop tracks until I find one I like".

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

Yes, a possible projected path out of the thousands out there where the particular one being promoted just happened to be a path (one contrarian to almost all the other major ones out there) which conveniently takes the storm away from Florida and Disney.

Which hints at "shop tracks until I find one I like".

No, it does not. The GFS 18z run is the MOST RECENT track that has been run. That is why people are posting about it.

 

[fla4fun]

I know that no one may have a solid answer but I'll even settle for a best guess at this point, let me be clear I would like this stupid hurricane to go back out to sea and leave everyone the hell alone, BUT if that isn't the case and it does end up hitting southern Florida and leaving Orlando untouched is there a chance they will still close or cancel flights flying into MCO? I have ZERO experience with any kind of hurricane and I know it's hard to say, I'm just trying to get the best idea I can.

It depends on many things, but I did fly out of MCO once when a hurricane was going across south Florida. In that case they were pretty certain of the storm's path, and that is the path it took. So long as the conditions for safe flights are in place, the airlines will fly. But if anything is compromising that safety, all bets are off. I know that isn't a lot of help, but it's not like they close all the Florida airports if only one of them is threatened. Each one is evaluated separately.

 

[AngiTN]

As a Florida part time resident I just have to ask what kind of stupid do you have to be to travel to our state to experience the 5th largest storm to ever be recorded in the Atlantic ocean. I of course say this with tongue in cheek, and I know people plan their Disney trips over many years, but I seriously have to ask if people think a major, one of the most major storms ever recorded, will be just cleaned up the day after with a few men and brooms and then its all Dole whips and Peterpan. Folks need to think that if it is a major storm then it will probably take more than a couple cleaning folks to make the results go away. Additionally I cant believe that adding more humans to an environment set to be inundated will make things easier on the safety responders. This baffles me.

I think one reason is right now it's not certain to do anything in FL. Let that change and I believe you'll see a lot of plans change.

 

[AndreaA]

Yes, a possible projected path out of the thousands out there where the particular one being promoted just happened to be a path (one contrarian to almost all the other major ones out there) which conveniently takes the storm away from Florida and Disney.

Which hints at "shop tracks until I find one I like".

How is using the second most respected track "shopping around"? Who cares about the other possible tracks if they come from unreliable sources??

 

[BigMac3001]

"Yes, a possible projected path out of the thousands out there where the particular one being promoted just happened to be a path (one contrarian to almost all the other major ones out there) which conveniently takes the storm away from Florida and Disney.

Which hints at "shop tracks until I find one I like"."

You're using a logical fallacy to argue against a logical fallacy. I'm going cross-eyed.

 

[AndreaA]

Mike is live on Facebook and doing a great job explaining everything. I highly suggest people check it out.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage

Where is he live? I see no link on his page. Seriously his web page is a hot mess.

 

[piglet1979]

This is a big hurricane. I remember a few pages back someone saying they heard it's relatively small.

News just updated and said the hurricane is currently 140 miles wide (74+mph winds), while tropical storm winds 330 miles wide (39+mph winds)

I am in Ohio and one of our weather people but Irma over Ohio and it is bigger then the whole state of Ohio.

 

[Tinkerbell2017]

It seems the closer the hurricane gets to Florida, the higher the pitch is on this thread. I believe everybody here means well, but everybody has different circumstances. Please just support each other. I'm watching closely but my trip is starting on the 16th. I may be lucky this time.

 

[tmcd1126]

It depends on many things, but I did fly out of MCO once when a hurricane was going across south Florida. In that case they were pretty certain of the storm's path, and that is the path it took. So long as the conditions for safe flights are in place, the airlines will fly. But if anything is compromising that safety, all bets are off. I know that isn't a lot of help, but it's not like they close all the Florida airports if only one of them is threatened. Each one is evaluated separately.

That was helpful thank you! I'm due to fly into MCO on Sunday at 3pm. So as much as I'd love for no one to get impacted at least if it only hits southern Florida, I'm hoping MCO will remain open and Orlando unaffected.

 

[ChristyJE117]

I can't follow his page at all. All he seems to post is one picture and a caption. Where does he post actual lengthy forecasts and explanations? His website is a nightmare from a web design standpoint... Oooh, my aching eyes!

The basics of what he's saying are: it's too early to go into full panic mode, the models are changing-many going east but a major one going west...

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

Ok, here is an illustration of TRENDS based on the data being provided by the Hurricane Hunter planes.

Midnight EST Sept 5th

6 a.m. EST Sept 5th

Noon EST Sept 5th

6 p.m. EST Sept 5th

Hmm..it's almost as if those dozens of models you speak of are all moving east. The EURO is following the same trend. And when the CMC comes out at midnight I wouldn't be surprised to see it do the same. That would be 95 combined model runs all shifting east with each new run today.

 

[ChristyJE117]

Mike is live on Facebook and doing a great job explaining everything. I highly suggest people check it out.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage

Yes, he's making me feel slightly better about everything.

 

[OhhBother]

Oooh please please please...

Those of us who live on the coast of South Carolina would appreciate you not wishing imminent disaster on our home. Thanks so much.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Where is he live? I see no link on his page. Seriously his web page is a hot mess.

If you click the link I posted it takes you to his Facebook page where his live video is the top post.