Hurricane Irma?

[TinkerBelle_325]

I don't put much stock in a weather site based in the Czech Republic, but I hope to Mickey that they're right!

They're using the latest GFS model (which is American) for their Irma projected path.

 

[AndreaA]

Here's the one I've been using. The models are easy to follow, but they keep changing, so yeah...

Do you have a link?

 

[AndreaA]

Mike's Weather Page (facebook) has him going live again at 9:00pm.

I can't follow his page at all. All he seems to post is one picture and a caption. Where does he post actual lengthy forecasts and explanations? His website is a nightmare from a web design standpoint... Oooh, my aching eyes!

 

[MommaBerd]

just change the date on calendar and click the precipitation button

Don't know what I was doing before, but that worked!

Here's the one I've been using. The models are easy to follow, but they keep changing, so yeah...

There was no link

It's just a weather model "visualizer" and it's only showing one forecast model (there are many). Stick with the NHC tracking maps.

I like looking at the different tools/analyses/website. I find it interesting.

 

[Amy___M]

Man, I hate Frontier. They are offering ONE free change in itinerary to travel NO LATER THAN October 15, 2017. Gee, thanks, Frontier.

Yeah, I get that. It works for us for this trip, but I would be hacked if it didn't!

 

[BigMac3001]

Do you have a link?

It would help if I did, wouldn't it?

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma

 

[lawboysam]

I can't follow his page at all. All he seems to post is one picture and a caption. Where does he post actual lengthy forecasts and explanations? His website is a nightmare from a web design standpoint... Oooh, my aching eyes!

He explains what it all means in the Facebook videos he does here: https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage

 

[Tonyz]

As much as I hate it I think I'm gonna be better safe than sorry and leave Saturday afternoon. There's a direct flight out at 3:30. Sucks to lose a day but if all goes well and I get 4.5 days during this mess I'll consider myself very lucky.

 

[Sleepy425]

I fly down on Thursday with two of my kids, my husband flies down Friday with the other two kids. We are continuing as planned.
For those who will be down there, here's my advice (I was there for Matthew last year):
- check your room phone often for messages. The phone didn't ring when they called with messages, it went straight to the room voicemail (maybe it was a fluke in our room, but the phone rang other times just not when they were doing the mass messages). They left us messages at least a couple times a day at Poly. Sometimes papers were slid under our door, sometimes it was just a message on the voicemail.
- get food ASAP. We went to Captain Cook's as soon as Magic Kingdom closed early the day before the storm hit. I only waited 30 minutes for food. A friend at another resort waited 2 hours. Other people waited 4+ hours. Seriously, if you want hot meals to put in your fridge to eat later get them early. Thankfully this time the storm is hitting when we will be in a 2BR so we will already have groceries. Last year it hit in the beginning when we were still in a studio.
- they stopped making reservations on property a day or two before the storm hit. We wanted to move my parents over so my daughters would be closer to me (my parents had them off property for a special 3rd birthday trip), but nobody was allowed to book any new rooms. Only extensions were allowed. If you think you may want a room book one now if it is available. Closer to the storm they saved them for CM who were on 3 day hurricane shifts and people who couldn't leave because of canceled flights.
Good luck to everyone!

 

[wonder whisper]

If this becomes the new track it changes things considerably. Shows Irma pushing east and not hitting Florida at all!

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=28.6;-81.4;5&l=rain-3h&t=20170912/00&m=gfs

No documentation on that site of the track Irma would have to take to get into the position it shows, much less what time frame it represents. Short of seeing that, it's just another random speculative forecast that doesn't reflect anything the NHS or Euro models are pointing to.

 

[MommaBerd]

So it hits the OBX and North Carolina instead. That scenario isn't any better.

The sad fact for me is that I have loved ones who would be impacted no matter the path (Daytona Beach, Savannah, OBX) except maybe the Gulf side...and well, I don't want it to impact them either!

 

[Kenzientysmom]

As a Florida part time resident I just have to ask what kind of stupid do you have to be to travel to our state to experience the 5th largest storm to ever be recorded in the Atlantic ocean. I of course say this with tongue in cheek, and I know people plan their Disney trips over many years, but I seriously have to ask if people think a major, one of the most major storms ever recorded, will be just cleaned up the day after with a few men and brooms and then its all Dole whips and Peterpan. Folks need to think that if it is a major storm then it will probably take more than a couple cleaning folks to make the results go away. Additionally I cant believe that adding more humans to an environment set to be inundated will make things easier on the safety responders. This baffles me.

A little harsh, don't you think?

With that said, we will be monitoring the situation over the next 24 hours. We will make a call tomorrow evening on whether to go, delay our arrival or cancel. If it looks bad, I am not putting my family's safety in jeopardy.

My parents, who are also part-time Florida residents (they have a place in Punta Gorda) are telling us not to worry yet as it is still way to early in the ball game to tell the impact on Central Florida.

 

[DLM1980]

No documentation on that site of the track Irma would have to take to get into the position it shows, much less what time frame it represents. Short of seeing that, it's just another random speculative forecast that doesn't reflect anything the NHS or Euro models are pointing to.

The models are inside the settings

 

[wonder whisper]

Oooh please please please...

Unfortunately, some people here are falling into the "please show me what I want to see" mindset and ignoring the actual tracking that is going on with this storm.

 

[kandb]

If people had free dining booked and have to reschedule their trips and the dates they are rescheduling fall into the dates that were originally scheduled for free dining, Disney SHOULD honor peoples free dining offer. If they do not, I will be very disappointed in Disney. This is no ones fault and Disney should do the right thing.

 

[dclpluto]

As a Florida part time resident I just have to ask what kind of stupid do you have to be to travel to our state to experience the 5th largest storm to ever be recorded in the Atlantic ocean. I of course say this with tongue in cheek, and I know people plan their Disney trips over many years, but I seriously have to ask if people think a major, one of the most major storms ever recorded, will be just cleaned up the day after with a few men and brooms and then its all Dole whips and Peterpan. Folks need to think that if it is a major storm then it will probably take more than a couple cleaning folks to make the results go away. Additionally I cant believe that adding more humans to an environment set to be inundated will make things easier on the safety responders. This baffles me.

Very uncalled for. Calling people stupid. Guess I'm stupid and thousands of others

 

[lawboysam]

No documentation on that site of the track Irma would have to take to get into the position it shows, much less what time frame it represents. Short of seeing that, it's just another random speculative forecast that doesn't reflect anything the NHS or Euro models are pointing to.

It's actually just the latest GFS track. You can see the same thing here (click to go through the days): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...z500a&runtime=2017090518&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=369

It will change, like every other track has. (If nothing else, this storm has taught me more than I ever wanted to know about spaghetti models and these hurricane maps)

 

[SpookyJ]

The sad fact for me is that I have loved ones who would be impacted no matter the path (Daytona Beach, Savannah, OBX) except maybe the Gulf side...and well, I don't want it to impact them either!

yeah, I would think it's safe to say none of us are exactly thrilled that this storm might hit anywhere and that should go without saying. I don't think anyone should be made to feel bad for expressing relief that it doesn't hit them. I don't assume that means they're happy it's hitting someone else....

 

[Tonyz]

New GFS has it missing Florida completely! Glad I'm waiting until tomorrow to change.

 

[SpookyJ]

New GFS has it missing Florida completely! Glad I'm waiting until tomorrow to change.

You and me both. Although I would like to at least take back the past 3 sleepless nights and 2 full days of hysterical sobbing if so...