Hurricane Irma?

[AndreaA]

No documentation on that site of the track Irma would have to take to get into the position it shows, much less what time frame it represents. Short of seeing that, it's just another random speculative forecast that doesn't reflect anything the NHS or Euro models are pointing to.

It specifically says it is the GFS track which is US. It changes every single time there is an update, so I exp c't to see another change at 11pm. I trust it more than a hundred random tracks coming from various places that may or may not be accurate.

 

[wonder whisper]

They're using the latest GFS model (which is American) for their Irma projected path.

Doesn't matter what model they are using. They are all speculative, all based on assumptions and have huge error margins when used to predict paths more than a few days out.

 

[aleh021]

A little harsh, don't you think?

With that said, we will be monitoring the situation over the next 24 hours. We will make a call tomorrow evening on whether to go, delay our arrival or cancel. If it looks bad, I am not putting my family's safety in jeopardy.

My parents, who are also part-time Florida residents (they have a place in Punta Gorda) are telling us not to worry yet as it is still way to early in the ball game to tell the impact on Central Florida.

It is harsh. & I get it, everyone is on edge, mainly due to the fact Harvey was just a week ago. And the media isn't helping much either. They tell you one thing one minute, a different the next.

I've lived and experienced many strange & wild storms. Its nature. Were just an ant on this earth that we have no control over.

But come Thursday we will figure out what to do as we will have a better idea by then.

BUT ... there is no reason to come on here and call people here stupid when all they're trying to do is get some answers for a vacation they just spent thousands on.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

No documentation on that site of the track Irma would have to take to get into the position it shows, much less what time frame it represents. Short of seeing that, it's just another random speculative forecast that doesn't reflect anything the NHS or Euro models are pointing to.

Actually, it states very plainly in the bottom left corner that it is using the GFS model for it's hurricane path projections. The GFS and the EURO are the two most reliable and trusted models in the world.

And the latest run of the GFS is located here, showing the same possible path:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...wind&runtime=2017090518&fh=-6&xpos=0&ypos=505

 

[lawboysam]

Doesn't matter what model they are using. They are all speculative, all based on assumptions and have huge error margins when used to predict paths more than a few days out.

AKA, science.

 

[AndreaA]

Unfortunately, some people here are falling into the "please show me what I want to see" mindset and ignoring the actual tracking that is going on with this storm.

What is this "actual tracking" you speak of, when Ventusky uses GFS which is a US source?

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

Doesn't matter what model they are using. They are all speculative, all based on assumptions and have huge error margins when used to predict paths more than a few days out.

Yes, it is a POSSIBLE path. One of many. No one here is saying that its a course set in stone.

 

[wonder whisper]

It specifically says it is the GFS track which is US. It changes every single time there is an update, so I exp c't to see another change at 11pm. I trust it more than a hundred random tracks coming from various places that may or may not be accurate.

One senses you trust it after searching endlessly for a graphic (which ended up being from an obscure foreign site) that showed you what you want to see.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

What is this "actual tracking" you speak of, when Ventusky uses GFS which is a US source?

THIS! The previous poster mentions the EURO and NHC...well the NHC also uses the GFS to help craft it's projected path. Just because NHC doesn't go past 5 days right now doesn't mean that the EURO and GFS are useless past the 5 day mark.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Mike is live on Facebook and doing a great job explaining everything. I highly suggest people check it out.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage

 

[fbarker]

The models all seem to be tightening up and reflecting the same general path. There is only one, that I have seen that takes Irma up along the eastern seaboard and only one model that shows it entering the Gulf of Mexico. All the others show it going into Florida, at various different spots but because Florida is so narrow a lot of it will be impacted. I feel so sorry for whoever is going to be hit by this storm as well as all those people who have saved and planned for many years and are not able to modify their plans.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

One senses you trust it after searching endlessly for a graphic (which ended up being from an obscure foreign site) that showed you what you want to see.

Starting to find it very convenient that you just joined the Disboards today

 

[AngiTN]

Is Disney still accepting hotels reservations for this weekend? It says not one room is available on the website.

It's possible they are not. When things were getting down to the wire for Matthew they did shut down new bookings online. They kept any open rooms for folks needing to be relocated or trips extended, etc. They did this prior to the shut down being announced.

 

[perditax]

AKA, science.

Well, some perform better than others, such as the Euro.

https://arstechnica.com/science/201...harvey-the-european-model-outperformed-humans

 

[tmcd1126]

I know that no one may have a solid answer but I'll even settle for a best guess at this point, let me be clear I would like this stupid hurricane to go back out to sea and leave everyone the hell alone, BUT if that isn't the case and it does end up hitting southern Florida and leaving Orlando untouched is there a chance they will still close or cancel flights flying into MCO? I have ZERO experience with any kind of hurricane and I know it's hard to say, I'm just trying to get the best idea I can.

 

[BigMac3001]

The models all seem to be tightening up and reflecting the same general path. There is only one, that I have seen that takes Irma up along the eastern seaboard and only one model that shows it entering the Gulf of Mexico. All the others show it going into Florida, at various different spots but because Florida is so narrow a lot of it will be impacted. I feel so sorry for whoever is going to be hit by this storm as well as all those people who have saved and planned for many years and are not able to modify their plans.

The models, they are a changin'. (and they'll continue to change) https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma

 

[perditax]

I know that no one may have a solid answer but I'll even settle for a best guess at this point, let me be clear I would like this stupid hurricane to go back out to sea and leave everyone the hell alone, BUT if that isn't the case and it does end up hitting southern Florida and leaving Orlando untouched is there a chance they will still close or cancel flights flying into MCO? I have ZERO experience with any kind of hurricane and I know it's hard to say, I'm just trying to get the best idea I can.

If there's no impact to Orlando I can't see them shutting down the airports, no.

 

[SpookyJ]

I know that no one may have a solid answer but I'll even settle for a best guess at this point, let me be clear I would like this stupid hurricane to go back out to sea and leave everyone the hell alone, BUT if that isn't the case and it does end up hitting southern Florida and leaving Orlando untouched is there a chance they will still close or cancel flights flying into MCO? I have ZERO experience with any kind of hurricane and I know it's hard to say, I'm just trying to get the best idea I can.

I would imagine they still might and it would depend on what day you're looking at. A friend I spoke to today in FL said they likely will, anyway. Hopefully not before my flight in Thursday morning (if things aren't looking too bad then.)

 

[SpookyJ]

The models, they are a changin'. (and they'll continue to change) https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma

Woah, check out that wild one in the ensemble tab that just skips off into Canada. I know it's only one option of many right now, but I wonder what impact that would have.

 

[tmcd1126]

I would imagine they still might and it would depend on what day you're looking at. A friend I spoke to today in FL said they likely will, anyway. Hopefully not before my flight in Thursday morning (if things aren't looking too bad then.)

Of course I'm supposed to fly in on Sunday, the projected worst day. So who knows. Praying and hoping this nasty storm gets knocked off course somewhere along the way.