HURRICANE FLORENCE TRACKING -- potentially the worst ever

[JimMIA]

Okay, here is the 11 AM Wednesday tracking chart, and there are big, and critically important changes in the predicted path of this storm:

• As I suggested earlier, Florence is now projected to STALL either just offshore, or just onshore of North Carolina.
• The map shows the storm wandering slowly SW, but remaining in the same general area for three days. On the map below, the last purple icon is 8 PM Thursday, the red (Cat 3) icon is 8 AM Friday near Wilmington, NC, the orange icon (Cat 2) is 8 AM Saturday, and the green icon is 8 AM Sunday...roughly in the area of Columbia, SC. (From Wilmington to Columbia is only 200 miles...so that is crawling!)
  • That means three days of torrential rains and heavy winds. A lot of buildings, trees, bridges, etc can withstand hurricane conditions for 8-12 hours. 48-72 hours is another story entirely.
• The storm is then expected to cross South Carolina, and then recurve to the NE...probably west of the Appalachian Mountains, still as a tropical depression with a lot of rain.
• The official NHC prediction for STORM SURGE is 13 feet, and they project that it may extend as far as 50 miles inland. That kind of reach inland is almost unheard of.
  • For reference, in NC, 50 miles inland would be more than halfway to Fayetteville. A little further north, where the worst storm surge is likely, it could extend as far as Wilson, NC...and I-95 is just west of Wilson.
• Other scientists are predicting storm surge as high as 20 feet.
• Also, because the storm is likely to stall, the storm surge could remain for several days. And then, it will surge back out to sea.

It's also possible that Florence will tick up a bit to a Category 5 tonight. Ignore that, it will be a temporary thing. Also remember that anything Cat 3 and above is horrific.



Long story short, for all the hype that these storms often generate, THIS storm has the potential to be the most costly hurricane in US history.

Here's a look at some of the computer models, to give you an idea of the possible path of the storm next week. The dots on each model are 12 hours apart, so when you see them clustered, the system is essentially stationary.



And here's the rainfall map, which just keeps getting worse.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

Here is a link to Gas Buddy that will show which stations have gas and which ones are sold out or close to sold out.

https://tracker.gasbuddy.com/?q=myrtle beach, sc

 

[JimMIA]

11AM Thursday update:

At 11 AM, Florence was about 145 miles ESE of Wilmington, NC, moving NW at 10 MPH. Florence has weakened to a strong Category 2 hurricane, with maximum winds of 105 MPH. However, she will be over the Gulf Stream in a few hours and the warmer waters there may cause some strengthening. If winds reach 111 MPH, she will be a Category 3 again, so Florence is still a large powerful storm capable of causing catastrophic damage throughout North and South Carolina.

Florence is projected to continue to slow down as she approaches landfall in the Wilmington area early Friday morning. She is expected to creep SW into South Carolina late Friday and then meander slowly westward through South Carolina.

Life threatening storm surge and life threatening flooding (including flash floods) are expected in both North and South Carolina.

With the very slow to stalled motion of the storm, the maps are too hard to read, so instead I'm posting a picture. This view will give you a better idea of the scope of this average-sized hurricane.

 

[OnceUponATime15]

Just heard on CNN that the width of Florence is the equivalent distance as from NYC to Toronto, Canada...

Perspective - the last time I drove from Toronto to Manhattan it took just under 9.5 hours - with two brief stops along the way and in summer perfect conditions.
So anyone still contemplating driving in the vicinity of Florence - that’s 9.5 hours or so of very rough driving top to bottom (and vice versa) in far from perfect conditions.

 

[JimMIA]

Florence is an average-sized storm, but many people don't realize how BIG "average" is. Florence has hurricane force winds across a 130 mile front, and tropical storm force winds across a 310 mile front. And of course, some crummy weather and a lot of rain extend well beyond those parameters.

There is going to be a lot of damage from this storm caused by its excruciatingly slow progress once it gets to landfall. Instead of 4-8 hours of heavy rain and wind, NC and SC are going to get 24+ hours each. Some areas are expected to get 20-30 inches of rain.

That level of rain will cause heavy flooding, and even in areas where flooding doesn't happen, it will soften the ground to the point that even modest winds blow big trees over. It will also probably undermine some building foundations and road beds, so we might see a lot of road and bridge damage. And that says nothing about the storm surge coming in...AND going back out.

And, to put the winds in perspective, people may remember the video of the roof blowing off an apartment building in Miami during Irma last year. That happened many miles from the eye of the hurricane and from winds in the 85-90 MPH range, in a densely-populated area with a lot of other sizable buildings to provide protection. Florence has winds of 105 MPH now and might intensify a little, so close to the eye Florence is going to have a potent punch just from wind alone.

But again, the BIG threat is water, not wind.

 

[JimMIA]

I just read this paragraph by Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, and it really sums up Florence perfectly. Emphasis added.

Heavy rains from Category 2 Hurricane Florence are lashing the coast of North Carolina as the dangerous storm heads northwest towards an expected landfall on Friday. Florence may be a Category 2 hurricane by the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, but it is a Category 5 heavy rain and inland flooding threat. Florence will stall on Friday and move slowly west-southwest along the coast for several days, bringing a devastating rainfall and storm surge event.