How would a possible recession affect DVC sales?

[DLBDS]

Just curious to know what others think Disney will do if DVC sales drop drastically in the coming months due to a recession.

 

[CarolAnnC]

Have not seen sales drop in the history of DVC so I would be very surprised. In fact, often times during a recession prices and demand of certain things rise such as furniture, makeup and vacations! WDW resort prices have steadily increased since opening in 1971, and that would contain a few recession periods as well.

 

[PamOKW]

If DVC survived the post-9/11 days, I think they are on solid ground for whatever highs and lows lay ahead. As they did then, they may offer more "incentives" but they will not drop the prices.

On the resale, market you may see DVC contracts for sale from people who were using "credit" to live beyond their means.

 

[DLBDS]

Here's hoping for some deals then. I really want in but DH isn't impressed. Might have to make the leap on my own.

 

[dianeschlicht]

Here's hoping for some deals then. I really want in but DH isn't impressed. Might have to make the leap on my own.

You wont get many other "deals" that are of more value than what you can get today. DVC always has some sort of "deal", but they are usually of a similar value.

 

[Chellymouse]

Here's hoping for some deals then. I really want in but DH isn't impressed. Might have to make the leap on my own.

It took me 2 months and our neighbors (who were first time WDW visitors ever with us this past August and they bought DVC as soon as they came home) to convince DH it was worth it. We looked into it 4 years ago and DH even agreed that he's sorry we didn't buy in then. What got my DH (aside from my persistance) is that some of the places that we'd like to go are available through DVC (we are considering the Italy trip through the Adventure Club) and once he saw really how economical it was going to be, the lightbulb went off. Also, point out, that with DVC for what it costs to take one trip, now you can take 2 or 3 a year for the same cost. We are planning 2 trips later this year (Aug-5 days and Dec-9 days) and even with the cost of our dues included, we can do both of these trips for what it would have cost to do a 10 day in Dec. at POR-FQ.

 

[drusba]

Slowdown in economy could mean slowdown in visitors to WDW, which in turn could mean slowdown in DVC sales. These things happen from time to time and it is not "drastic." Following 9/11, Disney faced a period that one could classify as "drastic" as number of visitors dropped significantly and DVC sales were impacted somewhat, but even then recovery began within nine months to a year. A recession will not be anything near as bad for the travel industry as what happened as a result of 9/11. You might see some better DVC sale incentives although I have doubts you will see anything much better than what exists now which are pretty good in themselves. A decision to raise point price might be put off.

A concern is whether a recession and slowdown in sales could impact the yet-to-confirmed Contemporary Resort Villas. If a recession slows AKV sales, Disney is not going to be anxious to announce CRV too soon and could always choose to nix it as a DVC resort.

 

[DLBDS]

Slowdown in economy could mean slowdown in visitors to WDW, which in turn could mean slowdown in DVC sales. These things happen from time to time and it is not "drastic." Following 9/11, Disney faced a period that one could classify as "drastic" as number of visitors dropped significantly and DVC sales were impacted somewhat, but even then recovery began within nine months to a year. A recession will not be anything near as bad for the travel industry as what happened as a result of 9/11. You might see some better DVC sale incentives although I have doubts you will see anything much better than what exists now which are pretty good in themselves. A decision to raise point price might be put off.

A concern is whether a recession and slowdown in sales could impact the yet-to-confirmed Contemporary Resort Villas. If a recession slows AKV sales, Disney is not going to be anxious to announce CRV too soon and could always choose to nix it as a DVC resort.

THAT would be bad. The reason I'm not jumping in now is that I'm waiting on the CR. I'm only interested in a MK DVC resort. I wish I had known about DVC back when the VWL were announced. I guess it doesn't really matter. I couldn't have afforded it back then anyway. I'm hoping there's a plan for me and when the stars and planets are aligned just right, I'll have my DVC!

 

[corpcomp]

Considering that the ISM report showed today that the services sector contracted badly last month for the first time in years, we are likely looking at a recession very soon if we are not already in it. Market dropped 370 points as a result today.

I suspect that the R word will have more impact but long term, things will get better. Disney outlook is long term. They don't do anything based on short term cycles unless there is a total crash which is unlikely.

If they do lose park visitors, they will cut deals on the ticket price but nothing long term. I'm holding a meeting at The Yacht Club for about 100 people in June and we have group rates as low as $40 for a park entrance fee. And that was before any of this recession talk started.

 

[lesley.a.murray@talk]

On the resale, market you may see DVC contracts for sale from people who were using "credit" to live beyond their means.

I was wondering about this too. But then I figure, even if there are more resale contracts on the market to choose from, ROFR will still keep the price up. I am guessing this right do you think?

 

[PamOKW]

Yes. As I was typing this was running through my mind. DVC will benefit from "firesales" because they have the ability to buy and hold the points. Even as they "hold" them, they can generate cash rentals on those points.