How will DVC handle a recession/poor economy?

[soozer52]

Agreed about the month to month expenses encroaching on vacation bucks but I never have seen DVC as over-inflated (WDW is another story) I determined in 1993 that someday we would make the giant step to become DVCers and it took us 12 years to get here. I'm sure someone could tell us the inflationary rate over the last 12 (or 15) year from OKW to SSR or AKV and compare to the national average. ALL hotels are going to increase their rates. 15 years ago $75 for a hotel room was outrageous. Today that is what Motel 6 costs. $100 is more the norm (at least where I live). Another reason we liked Disney as a timeshare is its liquidity--though I would never, ever sell. I want my kids and grandkids to get as much enjoyment out of it as we have. And we have gone several years without vacation. If we couldn't afford it we just didn't go. DVC changed that During the so called boom years in the 90's we opted for a few 3 day jaunts to nearby places in the summer. The kids enjoyed it and never complained. Of course every time I turn around now one of them wants some points to go to SSR....

 

[jdg345]

Just heard on the radio (and looked it up online) about the increase in round trip fuel increases in the last year-June 2007-June 2008--

ex-Atlanta to Orlando-878 miles-Cost increase per car $24.46
increase per SUV $32.54
ex-Denver to the Grand Canyon-1526 miles-Cost increase per car $42.51
increase per SUV $56.55

There are other examples but you get my drift. Would you cancel a family vacation because of $56.55? $75?$100? If you have saved up the money for a vacation (or prepaid like most DVCers) would it stop you from going or would you try to budget in that $56.55--maybe skip out of dining out one or two nights (think sandwiches and chips) or maybe skip that souvenir shop at EPCOT? I always love being in a great place-WDW-with friends/family. I wouldn't let $100 in gasoline keep me from that

Still cheaper than flying....I found the above examples @ BusinessWeek online in the lifestyle section.

PS-You could also go for the $7 bottle of wine rather than the $10 one!

I don't think that's the issue ... it's not that the vacation is a little more expensive, it's that people are spending more day to day. So while that $57 for the Vacation might not be a big deal, the fact that they spent an extra $2000 this year on other necessities might keep them from vacationing at all.

DVC might work its way through this by offering promotions like free dining or maybe some park tickets?

 

[nunzia]

I know one thing DVC has done is lower the minimum buy in points to 100 for Animal Kingdom Villas. I hope they decide to lower the cost of points at Bay Lake Tower and the Grand Californian Villas because I want to buy points there. Maybe fewer people will travel so that will mean easier availability for us and lighter crowds in the parks. Somehow, I doubt this will happen because of so many waitlists already posted for October and December this year.

I was thinking about this too..soo.. 1. they lower the minimum points for a buy in, then 2. they raise the cost per point so they still get more money out of us. I would think BLT and GCV would be the place to try this little trick. Plus..if incentives start at 100, they can 'cut' the price per point (after raising it of course) and then maybe people will bump up a purchase to make the minimum for the incentives.

 

[soozer52]

So while that $57 for the Vacation might not be a big deal, the fact that they spent an extra $2000 this year on other necessities might keep them from vacationing at all.

DVC might work its way through this by offering promotions like free dining or maybe some park tickets?

Oh, I agree. See my post above. I just keep hearing people say they can't go anywhere or do anything because gas is too high. I agree it IS high but the price of gas shouldn't stop you. We are going to have trickle down for a long time-just like the 70's when inflation was double digits. We'll pull out, we always do. Everything is cyclical and if Disney sees a slump, incentives will follow. Wish it was dining they would give incentive on because IMHO the food is the biggest racket that Disney has going. The food quality for the price is lacking. But thats my other soapbox.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

. We are going to have trickle down for a long time-just like the 70's when inflation was double digits. We'll pull out, we always do.

Actually, there is no historical data to compare with concerning the problems with the housing market, and the issues surrounding the fuel crisis. We are treading on new waters. Disney will be affected, you can bet on that.

 

[bonnielynn]

I don't think BLT will sell out quickly, it is a medium sized resort, and in a slowing economy, I think sales will slow, too. I do think the location will be the best selling point for this resort, though. They could still change their mind and make it rental suites, not DVC, for the convention crowd.

Where and what is the BLT?

 

[Chuck S]

Where and what is the BLT?

Bay Lake Tower the latest rumored name for the construction at the Contemporary.

 

[mvc1997]

 

[rinkwide]

The Official Mascot of This Thread:

 

[kimberh]

Good news for the housing market, Up 6.2% Nationwide (I think... May not be right on the .2%) investors are finally buying the deals. Saudi Arabia called Opec together to discuss the out of control Oil prices, there is not any reason for them, Just on ABC news. Maybe we will see some light at the end of the tunnel.

I went to Disney in 2001 when the news was saying Disney's parks were empty...well they were not empty the week we chose to go. We all commented on it. The whole southeast must have heard the news story and went to Disney.

 

[disneynutz]

Bay Lake Tower the latest rumored name for the construction at the Contemporary.

Chuck... just give in, you know you want to.

https://www.myfloridalicense.com/LicenseDetail.asp?SID=&id=D7D1BEE2578C1A3AD7707E38312ECCE5

 

[djmeen]

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PRICELESS.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

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Hey Rinkwide, I don't get it! I never saw "the movie". Maybe you could pm me your interpretation!

 

[disneynutz]

Hey Rinkwide, I don't get it! I never saw "the movie". Maybe you could pm me your interpretation!

Are we suppose to understand rinkwide's posts?

"The sky is falling".

 

[gkrykewy]

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[DVCPAT]

Actually, there is no historical data to compare with concerning the problems with the housing market, and the issues surrounding the fuel crisis. We are treading on new waters. Disney will be affected, you can bet on that.

I’ve always thought the biggest problems present the greatest opportunities.
I think it’s a great time to buy real estate and DVC. I also think its good timing for energy prices to soar. The first candidate that puts forward a comprehensive energy bill will be our next president. Without soaring energy prices, the US will never break its dependency on foreign oil. Once we start harnessing our own resources, oil prices will collapse.

 

[dvc at last !]

subscribing - to read later

 

[bethy]

I’ve always thought the biggest problems present the greatest opportunities.
I think it’s a great time to buy real estate and DVC. I also think its good timing for energy prices to soar. The first candidate that puts forward a comprehensive energy bill will be our next president. Without soaring energy prices, the US will never break its dependency on foreign oil. Once we start harnessing our own resources, oil prices will collapse.

Thank You for this!

 

[nuts]

Originally Posted by BWV Dreamin View Post
Actually, there is no historical data to compare with concerning the problems with the housing market, and the issues surrounding the fuel crisis. We are treading on new waters. Disney will be affected, you can bet on that.

Yes we do!

It's called the 70's

 

[ransom]

Yes we do!

It's called the 70's

So I should invest in polyester?


To get back on topic...

In a recession, DVC will add incentives. If it is long and deep enough, they may also slow their building pace.