How will DVC handle a recession/poor economy?

[bonnielynn]

I’ve always thought the biggest problems present the greatest opportunities.
I think it’s a great time to buy real estate and DVC. I also think its good timing for energy prices to soar. The first candidate that puts forward a comprehensive energy bill will be our next president. Without soaring energy prices, the US will never break its dependency on foreign oil. Once we start harnessing our own resources, oil prices will collapse.

Amen.... We need to stand on our own 2 feet and rely on us and stop looking outside this country for oil.

 

[bonnielynn]

The Official Mascot of This Thread:

 

[Chuck S]

Please remember that this thread needs to stay DVC related. General economic threads and comments belong on the Community Board.

 

[spiceycat]

well haven't read everything.

but the last one (it was small) more people brought DVC than before - so they would HAVE to go on vacation. Vacations are often giving up in hard times.

DVC will also advertise in those places not effective - or to the rich. Disney is not just a US company - it is international.

hopefully we will change enough. Driver slower. just don't do what so many experts say - drive slow to the lights - we have enough road rage as is - this in my opinion only increases it - because someone would have liked to turn left but couldn't because you were going to slow.

just would think a 55 mph on Interstate is definitely coming again. and the funds to the state troopers to enforce it.

right now if you even try to go 55 on IS you just about get run over.

will DVC and Disney be here when this recession is over - definitely.

 

[bavaria]

DVC will also advertise in those places not effective - or to the rich. Disney is not just a US company - it is international.

I am still doubting this, other than Canada, the UK and perhaps one or two other select markets. I think that readers here tend to overestimate the interest in purchasing DVC or even visiting Disney parks regularly in most of the world.

Disney has local Disney channels ie Disneychannel India, Disneychannel Germany, etc to drive interest towards their products. But if people from the majority of countries visit Disney parks (other than from the US, Canada, and a few countries around Disneyland Paris) it is usually a once or twice in a lifetime type visit.

Disney has done a good job of targeting various local markets - take China for instance, with the albeit small HK park, and potential plans for a Shanghai park. If they do expand in the Asian market, it would be to build a park in Southeast Asia long before it would be selling DVC to those markets, or building a DVC in that market.

There is no DVC in France, and the use of DVC points for Disneyland Paris is even worse value than it once was. The timeshare and the Disney mentality are not as strong universally as they are in the US.

 

[bavaria]

here is an interesting discussion for anyone who can read it, about purchasing DVC as a European. One person asks and receives a lot of advice about why it may not be a good idea

http://freizeitparkweb.de/cgi-bin/dcf/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=939&forum=DCForumID17

I know of one Belgian owner, one German owner, and have seen two Germans request information here in all the years that I have been reading. I realize that is not an indepth analysis of international ownership, but as I said earlier in this thread I have looked at the low numbers of international owners on DVC's own map. Considering that up to half of those are most likely US military and/or US expats, the level of foreign ownership is low (with the exception of the UK and Canada) and I suspect that it will remain so in future.

 

[fishermouse]

Some places may be seeing an economic slow down but for the most part it's just election year hog wash same thing happens every 4 years. The party thats out convinces us how bad it is, they all play the same game. DVC corp. leaders will use it to make us think we should buy now while we can afford the bargain they are offering. If a deal sounds good take advantage ot it, prices and interest rates will only go up after the election. Happens every 4 years like clock work makes little difference who wins, big bussiness and Wall Street know how to play the game. JMHO

 

[Pootle]

here is an interesting discussion for anyone who can read it, about purchasing DVC as a European. One person asks and receives a lot of advice about why it may not be a good idea

http://freizeitparkweb.de/cgi-bin/dcf/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=939&forum=DCForumID17

I know of one Belgian owner, one German owner, and have seen two Germans request information here in all the years that I have been reading. I realize that is not an indepth analysis of international ownership, but as I said earlier in this thread I have looked at the low numbers of international owners on DVC's own map. Considering that up to half of those are most likely US military and/or US expats, the level of foreign ownership is low (with the exception of the UK and Canada) and I suspect that it will remain so in future.

I totally agree with your post. DH works all over Europe (but prefers Germany as he speaks German and likes the culture - so we'll 'read' the thread together when he's back home, lol) and I get to mix with many of his colleagues. Disney isn't even on their radar and the USA in general is not a 'must do' destination; even for well-paid fluent English speakers, despite the current euro/dollar exchange rate.

Here in the UK though, it's a totally different matter as you observed. However, we are seeing higher flight prices filter through, plus we too are being squeezed with rising household bills, taxes, food and falling house prices. Eventually I think vacations - including Disney - will be hit as the nation tightens its belt. The current good value of sterling/dollar keeps our loyalty for now.

DVC members are the most loyal of course because we've signed up and the drop in attendance after 9/11 taught them they needed DVC. I think Disney will have to work very hard in the coming years and I bet they have plans in place already for a prolonged slowdown.

 

[photobob]

I think how the economy affects DVC is a time will tell situation. The current weak dollar may help WDW bring in more international travelers, but I'm not sure they are ones that would buy DVC or not. I just got back from a June 1-6 trip and found the lowest crowds that I've ever encountered. I believe it was mostly due to good timing, Memorial Day was the week prior and most northern schools were still in session. I have to believe the economy and energy prices played a roll as well, I'm not sure how much.

DVC will act according to what ever the situation calls for. If sales slow, look for some better incentive packages. If they are having trouble with new sales, they may look to sell to us that already own. They've given us incentives in the past and that trend will probably continue.

 

[bavaria]

I totally agree with your post.

Well, at least one person does! that is more than usual

I went back and checked the DVC map in the latest magazine - '8,800 members in 97 countries' outside of the US. The Canadian board shows about 100 DVC members here; the UK board shows at least that amount (unlike the Canadians, they did not keep a tally and I was too lazy to count)

If we estimate that 3% of owners post here, that makes 6,700 owners in Canada and the UK, leaving 2,100 'elsewhere'. (Assuming that my maths are even relatively correct) I found another 'international' poster last night, from 'South America' in her profile; I also believe that I have seen some from Ireland post here.

Combine that with the fact that DVC would need to be licensed to sell internationally. Until recently, only one or two provinces in Canada were licensed to sell DVC product. I don't know if that has changed with the new development, but based on posts that I scanned, I doubt it.

It would take a lot of financial investment for DVC to sell US based products to the international market (licenses, market material, foreign based guides, etc) for an unknown return.

 

[simzac]

There is no DVC in France

Not yet anyway