How will all of this affect Reflections?

[TraderSamWDW]

Not that its really important, but I am curious, because there are multiple variables.
1. It was only going to part DVC - part cash - but if park attendance drops will they need all those cash rooms?
2. Is it likely to not change or just get pushed a year or two.
3. Will it become the new "Classic Years" a la Pop Century?

Just curious as to what people think, (And a tad bored)

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I have to think Reflections and the new DVC resort at DL being planned are both going to be on hold until things level off with the virus and eventually the economy. It might depend on how long it takes for places to open again. The longer the wait for opening our businesses, the longer projects like Reflections will likely be put off. I would hope/expect the design to not change much, but the project to perhaps get pushed back a couple years - but who knows?!

I'm not clear what you're asking in #3 - are you referring to the building being built and just sitting there, but not open? Since they only appear to have cleared the ground for Reflections, and have done little to no actual building, I don't think it's the same.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

I meant just scraped altogether (#3)....or indefinitely at least (more than 5 years say)

 

[bookwormde]

I think a 6 to 12 month delay for the DVC and entrance and an indefinite hold after putting the foundation and underground work for the hotel side.

 

[bobbiwoz]

We bought in 2003, and our papers included a statement that we understood that DVC was not going to build Eagle Pines...I think that was the name of the resort never built.

 

[CarolMN]

In light of all the lost revenue, Disney is no doubt reviewing all its currently planned capital projects. Wouldn't surprise me if the capital budget gets cut. I hope they don't need to delay the projects already in progress in the parks. Selfishly, I'd rather see those prioritized ahead of new DVC resorts.

 

[SL6827]

So Riviera could be the only DVC-2 for a while?

 

[Deb & Bill]

Eagle Pines was scrapped all together around 2007-2008. It was located where Golden Oaks is now located.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think it may delay Reflections but not change it much. A big difference between Eagle Pines or even Pop/AOA is that EP was kinda far out, and Pop/AOA were in an expansion era where they had good land for resort development.

Always remember how much of the land cannot be built out.

Reflections is roughly the second best piece of prime land they have left. And the only one with a plan. They are not going to make it smaller or dumb it down unless they do some massive planning to make it phasable.

 

[tjkraz]

Eagle Pines was scrapped all together around 2007-2008. It was located where Golden Oaks is now located.

It was earlier than that. Eagle Pines was a post-9/11 (2001) casualty, when they decided to instead convert The Disney Institute to Saratoga Springs.

During the 2008/2009 recession, the projects most likely derailed were:

- National Harbor (Wash DC) off-site hotel
- Second Disneyland DVC
- Possibly the original River Country / Ft. Wilderness project

Bay Lake Tower and Grand Californian both opened during the recession, while DVC also had SSR and AKV points left to sell. And they also pressed-forward with Aulani.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

In light of all the lost revenue, Disney is no doubt reviewing all its currently planned capital projects. Wouldn't surprise me if the capital budget gets cut. I hope they don't need to delay the projects already in progress in the parks. Selfishly, I'd rather see those prioritized ahead of new DVC resorts.

I have been wondering about this too. Pretty much half of Future World in Epcot was under construction when we where there this past Jan, I hope they finish it up and also all the improvements in France. It has been over 2 years since the train in MK has been running because of Tron, I hope they finish that so the train can run again. I too would rather see these things finished before another DVC resort. Does anybody have any inside information to confirm if these projects are currently being worked on or they at a standstill?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

National Harbor (Wash DC) off-site hotel

And, really, I think the odds of ever seeing another off-site are wildly low unless some round of new leadership gets delusional.

 

[Spridell]

Have they laid a foundation yet with Reflections? I was there about 2 months ago and saw trees being removed but I didnt see a foundation.

If no foundation i can see it being put on hold for a while. When compared to something like the Star Wars hotel. That I see being finished soon than later.

 

[bookwormde]

Have they laid a foundation yet with Reflections? I was there about 2 months ago and saw trees being removed but I didnt see a foundation.

If no foundation i can see it being put on hold for a while. When compared to something like the Star Wars hotel. That I see being finished soon than later.

Since it it likely that the foundation will be a (concrete) piling and cap system it will be quite apparent since it requires large cranes and the ground vibration is quite significant it appears to not have started.

I do suspect that by where they are in the construction process that the pilings have already been made/purchased and are in the curing stage. With the number of pilings likely needed (1000+) when this is going on it is going to be impactful on the campground and even WL. so doing it when these resorts are closed would prevent a lot of complaints and the related compensation that often accompanies.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Since it it likely that the foundation will be a (concrete) piling and cap system it will be quite apparent since it requires large cranes and the ground vibration is quite significant it appears to not have started.

I do suspect that by where they are in the construction process that the pilings have already been made/purchased and are in the curing stage. With the number of pilings likely needed (1000+) when this is going on it is going to be impactful on the campground and even WL. so doing it when these resorts are closed would prevent a lot of complaints and the related compensation that often accompanies.

Construction crews are on layoff right now. Even the castle painting is delayed.

 

[bookwormde]

Construction crews are on layoff right now. Even the castle painting is delayed.

Yes but once priorities are set and distancing practices are created some work will likely restart

 

[TraderSamWDW]

Yes but once priorities are set and distancing practices are created some work will likely restart

That is kind of the question, what will be the priorities?
Reflections is set to be (about) half DVC - and DVC needs this to some on line just as DRR is selling out, which is now likely to be further in the future that originally thought. Well, they do not need it to come on line then, only if they want something to sell. If DRR sales tank, they may go for a bit with nothing to sell, who knows. If cash rooms are down they may be as concerned about the cash rooms the new resort will offer.
I see four options.
A. Restart construction as soon as possible, and stay with the original time line
B. Push back the time like a little bit (a year or so) and construct accordingly
C. Push the time line back longer, say up to 5 years
D. Pause the project indefinitely, perhaps even scrapping it altogether.

I do not think they are going to be going with option A.

And what you are saying about having a slightly opportunistic construction window, Disney accepted disturbing guests before(with no other option). They could utilize it with A or B though.

I have trouble seeing them getting to a point where they can put pilings in before June 1, which is the dates the resorts are currently set to reopen.

 

[mamaofsix]

While I am hoping for "A," likely "B" is the most realistic. A delayed construction / opening, but not a total scrap of the project.

 

[bookwormde]

They certainly could not get all the pilings in by 6/1, but could complete the areas proximate to the camp ground/HDDR

My guess is that priorities will be where they can generate the maximum short term profit with the least investment which is why I think the hotel side will be scrapped or delayed at least 3 years since it has a 10 TO 15 year payback even in good times

I do think that just due to practical issues that the DVC side will not finish until 6 to 10 months after the original date

 

[TraderSamWDW]

While I am hoping for "A," likely "B" is the most realistic. A delayed construction / opening, but not a total scrap of the project.

I hope you are right! I think A is out of the question totally. I am in the C camp myself - 2 years give or take - as I think DRR sales are going to struggle for numerous factors for a while (no one at the parks for a month and a half - at least, high unemployment, economic uncertainty)