How many total points do you think each resort will have when it expires and is sold as new?

[maui22]

We often see posts about point chart inflation. With 5 resorts fully expiring in 2042, Disney only needs enough new resorts/associations to sell points for 18-20 years. (VGF BPK was a quick flip that required less than a year. PVB longhouses were gutted and almost entirely redone inside in approximately 3 years).

Over the last 15 years, there has been point chart inflation. Look at BWV compared to Riviera and VGF.

Here is a breakdown of resorts by expiration dates and approximately the total points (in millions) per resort:

2042

• BCV - 3.027
• BWV - 4.889
• BRV - 1.962
• HHI - 1.369
• VB - 1.616

2054

• SSR - 13.124

2042/2057

• OKW - 7.675

2057

• AKV - 7.399

2060

• BLT - 5.733

2062

• AUL - 11.519

2064

• VGF - 4.3 (VGF 1 was 2.52 and BPK was 1.78 (thank you @Massachusetts)).

2066

• PVB - 4.033 (If Disney stays with their plans announced last December, probably 3-4 million more with the tower).

2068

• CCV - 3.322

2070

• RIV - 6.74

2074

• VDH - 3.256

2075

• CFW - 2.8-2.85

What do you think Disney does with each resort?
Will they remove the property from DVC system entirely?
Will they make a quick flip or gut/remodel to modern day expectations?
Will they raise/lower point charts and if so which resorts?
Do you think Disney will need to build any new WDW/DL resorts after 2042 properties become available for them to remodel and resell?

Curious what people think happens. 18 years of debate seems like a good timeframe for the boards to debate.

 

[Massachusetts]

According to this article: Grand Floridian Sales Up, Overall Direct Sales Down in January 2023. VGF2 had 1,779,822 in the Big Pine Key offering.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

I’ll be pushing 90 and over 100 when our points expire where we own…..not much of a concern for us.

 

[T00dles]

The approach Disney takes to resetting their DVC resorts will likely vary from one resort to another, based on an analysis of data using advanced tools and technologies. Given the timeline and rate of advancement in data science, these methodologies will likely evolve significantly by then.

 

[JackosinDIS]

I can’t see them removing the properties from the system. More likely they will refurb and resell, or move points in to the trust but with a much higher point chart.

It will be interesting to see what they do with the points charts for BRV, as I suppose they will be limited from increasing them too much because of the CCV charts (which broadly match BRV).

 

[Sandisw]

We often see posts about point chart inflation. With 5 resorts fully expiring in 2042, Disney only needs enough new resorts/associations to sell points for 18-20 years. (VGF BPK was a quick flip that required less than a year. PVB longhouses were gutted and almost entirely redone inside in approximately 3 years).

Over the last 15 years, there has been point chart inflation. Look at BWV compared to Riviera and VGF.

Here is a breakdown of resorts by expiration dates and approximately the total points (in millions) per resort:

2042

• BCV - 3.027
• BWV - 4.889
• BRV - 1.962
• HHI - 1.369
• VB - 1.616

2054

• SSR - 13.124

2042/2057

• OKW - 7.675

2057

• AKV - 7.399

2060

• BLT - 5.733

2062

• AUL - 11.519

2064

• VGF - guessing roughly 3.4-3.5 million points. VGF 1 was 2.52 and I believe BPK was under 1 million points. If anyone has good numbers, I will update.

2066

• PVB - 4.033 (If Disney stays with their plans announced last December, probably 3-4 million more with the tower).

2068

• CCV - 3.322

2070

• RIV - 6.74

2074

• VDH - 3.256

2075

• CFW - ???

What do you think Disney does with each resort?
Will they remove the property from DVC system entirely?
Will they make a quick flip or gut/remodel to modern day expectations?
Will they raise/lower point charts and if so which resorts?
Do you think Disney will need to build any new WDW/DL resorts after 2042 properties become available for them to remodel and resell?

Curious what people think happens. 18 years of debate seems like a good timeframe for the boards to debate.

I think you have to look at the cash price of deluxe when the point charts were created.

When BWV was opening, the cost to stay there was much less and played a role in why those points are what they are, right?

So, I think the point charts for things moving forward will mimic those factors. And I think the cabins charts sort of support that.

 

[hhisc16]

We often see posts about point chart inflation. With 5 resorts fully expiring in 2042, Disney only needs enough new resorts/associations to sell points for 18-20 years. (VGF BPK was a quick flip that required less than a year. PVB longhouses were gutted and almost entirely redone inside in approximately 3 years).

Over the last 15 years, there has been point chart inflation. Look at BWV compared to Riviera and VGF.

Here is a breakdown of resorts by expiration dates and approximately the total points (in millions) per resort:

2042

• BCV - 3.027
• BWV - 4.889
• BRV - 1.962
• HHI - 1.369
• VB - 1.616

2054

• SSR - 13.124

2042/2057

• OKW - 7.675

2057

• AKV - 7.399

2060

• BLT - 5.733

2062

• AUL - 11.519

2064

• VGF - guessing roughly 3.4-3.5 million points. VGF 1 was 2.52 and I believe BPK was under 1 million points. If anyone has good numbers, I will update.

2066

• PVB - 4.033 (If Disney stays with their plans announced last December, probably 3-4 million more with the tower).

2068

• CCV - 3.322

2070

• RIV - 6.74

2074

• VDH - 3.256

2075

• CFW - ???

What do you think Disney does with each resort?
Will they remove the property from DVC system entirely?
Will they make a quick flip or gut/remodel to modern day expectations?
Will they raise/lower point charts and if so which resorts?
Do you think Disney will need to build any new WDW/DL resorts after 2042 properties become available for them to remodel and resell?

Curious what people think happens. 18 years of debate seems like a good timeframe for the boards to debate.

I think they will flip the 2042 resorts and put into the trust after 2042.

 

[maui22]

I think you have to look at the cash price of deluxe when the point charts were created.

When BWV was opening, the cost to stay there was much less and played a role in why those points are what they are, right?

So, I think the point charts for things moving forward will mimic those factors. And I think the cabins charts sort of support that.

BWV and BCV are the best examples that they will adjust those price charts significantly higher.

In order for point chart inflation to keep working, doesn't that require Disney to be able to sell more points each year?

Apologies, I know this isn't a good description, but hopefully everyone understands what I'm trying to write.
Example, if Disney averages sold 2 million points sold for the last 10 years that means they had 20 million points for the resorts they sold. If point chart inflation is 50% higher in 50 years, Disney either averages selling 3 million points a year or they have an additional 10 million unsold points from the flip.

 

[Sandisw]

BWV and BCV are the best examples that they will adjust those price charts significantly higher.

In order for point chart inflation to keep working, doesn't that require Disney to be able to sell more points each year?

Apologies, I know this isn't a good description, but hopefully everyone understands what I'm trying to write.
Example, if Disney averages sold 2 million points sold for the last 10 years that means they had 20 million points for the resorts they sold. If point chart inflation is 50% higher in 50 years, Disney either averages selling 3 million points a year or they have an additional 10 million unsold points from the flip.

The total points obviously go up if they set the point charts higher.

But, I don’t know if it’s about total points to be higher with each new resort. The cabins are a prime example.

That is going to have a total of 363 cabins…assuming all get activated for sale..and points are well below RIV which has similar number of rooms.

It’s all related to the cash price at the time and how it will related in savings for those buying.

When the 2042 resorts were created, the cash priced was in the $200 to $300s. Now they are more than double that.

So, that alone means the charts will be higher!!

 

[JackosinDIS]

BWV and BCV are the best examples that they will adjust those price charts significantly higher.

In order for point chart inflation to keep working, doesn't that require Disney to be able to sell more points each year?

Apologies, I know this isn't a good description, but hopefully everyone understands what I'm trying to write.
Example, if Disney averages sold 2 million points sold for the last 10 years that means they had 20 million points for the resorts they sold. If point chart inflation is 50% higher in 50 years, Disney either averages selling 3 million points a year or they have an additional 10 million unsold points from the flip.

I get what you’re saying, and yes they will need to sell more points, but in theory that will be easy as people will be told you need X points for a week in a studio, and that is what they will buy. So rather than 100 they will buy 200 points at the outset and the cost will just be higher, rather than DVC having to find a bigger pool of buyers.

 

[maui22]

The total points obviously go up if they set the point charts higher.

But, I don’t know if it’s about total points to be higher with each new resort. The cabins are a prime example.

That is going to have a total of 363 cabins…assuming all get activated for sale..and points are well below RIV which has similar number of rooms.

It’s all related to the cash price at the time and how it will related in savings for those buying.

When the 2042 resorts were created, the cash priced was in the $200 to $300s. Now they are more than double that.

So, that alone means the charts will be higher!!

I get what you’re saying, and yes they will need to sell more points, but in theory that will be easy as people will be told you need X points for a week in a studio, and that is what they will buy. So rather than 100 they will buy 200 points at the outset and the cost will just be higher, rather than DVC having to find a bigger pool of buyers.

Point chart inflation is only a portion of the DVC costs though.
Isn't it a 3 legged stool. Price/pt, points/night at resorts, and annual dues?

Dircect price inflation examples...

• BWV opened 1996 and direct price was $62.75/pt. Today, the price per point is more than 500% higher.
• BRV opened 2000 and direct price was $67. Today, the price per point is more than 300% higher.
• BCV opened July 1, 2002. Direct price started at $75 to start, raised to $80 in June 2002, and again raised to $84 in December 2002. Today's direct prices range are nearly 300% higher (actually higher if using the direct price of BCV initially).
• SSR opened 2004. From what I can find, direct prices in 2004 were $95/pt.
• AKV opened 2007 and direct price in 2007 was $101 and raised to $104.
• BLT opened 2009. Sales started at $112 in 2008. (Prices raised to $120 but not until after opening).
• VGC opened 2009. Sales started at $112.
• AUL opened 2011 (time flies). Sales started at $114 and were quickly raised to $120.
• VGF opened 2013. Sales started at $145, raised to $150 a month later. (Not sure, but these number may be with incentives).
• PVB opened 2015. Sales started at $160 (mad scramble because DVC couldn't sell in many states). Raised price to $165/pt the next month. Later the same year, raised again to $168.
• CCV opened 2017. Sales started at $176.

DW and I bought during the 2009 crash (imo, best incentives since the original OKW incentives), so maybe my experience is not common.

 

[Sandisw]

Point chart inflation is only a portion of the DVC costs though.
Isn't it a 3 legged stool. Price/pt, points/night at resorts, and annual dues?

Dircect price inflation examples...

• BWV opened 1996 and direct price was $62.75/pt. Today, the price per point is more than 500% higher.
• BRV opened 2000 and direct price was $67. Today, the price per point is more than 300% higher.
• BCV opened July 1, 2002. Direct price started at $75 to start, raised to $80 in June 2002, and again raised to $84 in December 2002. Today's direct prices range are nearly 300% higher (actually higher if using the direct price of BCV initially).
• SSR opened 2004. From what I can find, direct prices in 2004 were $95/pt.
• AKV opened 2007 and direct price in 2007 was $101 and raised to $104.
• BLT opened 2009. Sales started at $112 in 2008. (Prices raised to $120 but not until after opening).
• VGC opened 2009. Sales started at $112.
• AUL opened 2011 (time flies). Sales started at $114 and were quickly raised to $120.
• VGF opened 2013. Sales started at $145, raised to $150 a month later. (Not sure, but these number may be with incentives).
• PVB opened 2015. Sales started at $160 (mad scramble because DVC couldn't sell in many states). Raised price to $165/pt the next month. Later the same year, raised again to $168.
• CCV opened 2017. Sales started at $176.

DW and I bought during the 2009 crash (imo, best incentives since the original OKW incentives), so maybe my experience is not common.

Yes, all those play a role but I was saying that the point chart creation is based, in part, in comparison to its cash price.

So, they have not made the new charts more expensive per room simply to sell more points, but because the cash room rate is higher now so the point charts reflect that.

Of course, the higher the piece the more money they take in.

 

[DisTravels]

DW and I bought during the 2009 crash (imo, best incentives since the original OKW incentives), so maybe my experience is not common.

What incentives were they offering (either with OKW initially or 2009 when you purchased)

 

[maui22]

What incentives were they offering (either with OKW initially or 2009 when you purchased)

I don't know the full incentives of OKW initially, but IIRC people posted they received annual passes for several years with their purchase. I think it was 7 or maybe 10 years. I think it was also for 2 people. Considering prices back then, it was a huge value.

In spring 2009, Disney began what was called a webcast promotion. You would signup and watch a webcast with others. You could ask questions afterward. The two that stand out to me were.

• BLT direct was $112, but incentives for 160 points brought it to $96/pt. If you bought more, incentives were higher. IIRC, best deal brought the price to $91/pt (or maybe it was $87). As I type this, I think the $87/pt was more accurate. There were a number of people who claimed they bought large numbers of points and rented them.
  • Disney had similar $96/pt options during a few more promotions over remaining 2009-2010. Last time that offered a BLT similar to this was a Black Friday 2010 promotion at their Doorway to Dreams stores (which no longer exist). Doorway to Dreams were located in only a few mall areas (NYC, Chicago, and 1-2 more). People booked flights or drove several hours to get this deal.
• VGC is the one I will forever kick myself over. I can't recall the number of points you need to buy, but it was as low as $85/pt. (Roughly a 24% off price). Compare that VGC price to what resale is today.

2009 direct sales numbers were crazy. I know the 2011 year is commonly used for best sales year, but I believe that is because the person at DVCNews tracking the sale didn't start tracking until late 2009 (or maybe it was 2010). BLT sales were not good from the initial sales in 2008 until the spring and webcast promotion. Sales soared and often exceeded 200K points each month for BLT.

To give some perspective, VGF summer sale was incredible but it lasted 2-3 months. With BLT, they did blowout promotions from spring 2009, when that ended they had other promotions, stopped deep promotions for a few months, and then the Black Friday promotion. Easy to see why BLT had so many months of sales exceeding 200K points sold (or more accurately showing up on the occompt web site).

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I know inflation explains a part of this, but it’s fascinating that even 15 years ago DVC prices were barely above $100/pt and members received better incentives then we do today where starting price is $225. Plus the product was less diminished and complicated. I know we members have kept the beast fed and well marketed all these years but I imagine these prices will become unsustainable at some point. I wonder what that breaking point price is where they barely move new inventory and have to come back down to earth, $350? 400? And what will dues look like then? Even if cash prices continue to grow at current level, I would think people would just go to Disney less often then join DVC for “savings”.

Then again, I’m sure those who purchased in 1992 never would have believed what the product would grow into today.

 

[beccasmom]

I don't know the full incentives of OKW initially, but IIRC people posted they received annual passes for several years with their purchase. I think it was 7 or maybe 10 years. I think it was also for 2 people. Considering prices back then, it was a huge value.

We purchased our OKW (called “Disney Vacation Club” at that point) in 1992. The incentive then was for free park tickets until 2000. Tickets to AK were excluded. The number of tickets was based on half the occupancy for the unit - 2 for a studio and one bedroom, 4 for a two-bedroom, 6 for a GV. It was terrific and the final reason we decided to purchase 230 points (the minimum) for a shade over $14,000. No regrets at all.

 

[Anthony1971]

Disney offered numerous incentives through the years.
IE; SSR they have you bonus points = to amount you bought and purchased your actual use year points back for 10 each so a 10 discount. On a number of occasions if a member recommended someone I believe it was a 10 discount plus the member got the normal payout for the recommendation.
All kinds of ways make money for members as well. With SSR a member would buy a small 50 point contact sell the points back use the points as you got the prior year points if that makes sense - you buy a August use year in July you get 100 points (double) plus August you get another 50 use or rent etc. the 100 points and sell the 50 point contract going for a large premium because there was 150 min buy in.

 

[Genie+]

We purchased our OKW (called “Disney Vacation Club” at that point) in 1992. The incentive then was for free park tickets until 2000. Tickets to AK were excluded. The number of tickets was based on half the occupancy for the unit - 2 for a studio and one bedroom, 4 for a two-bedroom, 6 for a GV. It was terrific and the final reason we decided to purchase 230 points (the minimum) for a shade over $14,000. No regrets at all.

Back then my roommate was regularly invited by best friend from childhood to join her family on WDW trips after buying DVC. My roommate loved it! I think that was pivotal in her and her sister becoming huge WDW fans once they started raising their own families. Those free park tickets probably motivated many new DVC owners to ‘share’ the Disney. I think that’s when Disney is at its best -providing a great value to their guests while providing a great value to their business. Everybody wins.

 

[zavandor]

My predictions for 2042 resorts:

• No extension whatsoever
• HHI and VB will be sold to a third party (this is more a wish than a predictions, as I have no interest in them, sorry)
• BRV will be resold with point charts unchanged (they tied their hands with CCV)
• BCV will have VGF style point charts
• BWV will have Poly style point charts, with BW view costing more than garden and the difference with standard lowered

The most interesting will be SSR. With resale restrictions I could easily see its resale value plummet when resold in 2054. Will Disney care? Probably not.
(Nothing personal, it's my home resort and I like stay there, but it's unquestionable its appeal is mostly for cheap SAP).

 

[drusba]

It is BRV that has the possible limitation that they may not want to change its points per night any significant amount because of the continuing existence of CCV, but the dollar cost per point will likely be whatever DVD has raised it to before 2042. Otherwise, if the condo format is retained, it is likely the resorts will be refurb somewhat and then sold new at both a higher existing dollar cost per point per night and higher reservation point cost per night -- doing both achieves the same desired finical gain than just raising the dollar-per-point cost a lot more. How much of an increase is anyone's guess.

An interesting issue is whether DVD will instead want to adopt the trust system for any of the resorts. One could see DVD doing that by combining BWV and BCV into one trust with a higher, but equal, per point dollar and per night cost for the same categories of rooms, thus giving purchasers the ability to reserve either at 11-months out.

In any event, we can only speculate as to what is actually going to happen, except that if the resorts are kept, and following some refurb, I am fairly confident that the point cost per night for boardwalk view rooms will be higher than any other views at either BWV or BCV.