How many of you are waiting for more contracts to be available?

[fmer55]

That's completely untrue. Let's pretend DVC started decades ago and when it started you bought a 100 point BWV contract that expires in 3 years. The MF's this year are $5.84...or $584 for all 100 points. The next cheapest option to stay at WDW is to rent points for around $12....or $1200 for 100 points.

Right off the bat your contract saves the owner $616 the first year. Extrapolate that over the 3 years remaining on the contract (assuming a similar savings each year, which is a safe assumption) and the remainder of your contract would save the owner over $1800. That's hardly worthless. A smart person would buy your contract for $1000 and realize an $800 savings over 3 years.

When you say today's contracts are worthless in 15-20 years...that's simply not true. I have a feeling you wouldnt hand over your contracts to me for free in 15-20 years. If so, I'll gladly take them off your hands.

There is value in use and a couple bucks renting, but resale? I stand by my statement. The problem with your reasoning is you think people look at this as a type of investment when the fact is the vast majority understand this is a prepaid vacation.

 

[DougEMG]

I do agree that anyone that bought in the last year bought at the bottom of the market. I think that durning the recession a lot of people were forced to sell and it was a buyer's market. Today with the limited inventory of points, it looks like a seller's market, which should keep price higher than all of us 'deal hunters' are use to.

How I wish my OKW contracts from last Mar had made it through ROFR. I think it will be a long time before I get someone to accept $39/point for OKW.

 

[theguda]

There is value in use and a couple bucks renting, but resale? I stand by my statement. The problem with your reasoning is you think people look at this as a type of investment when the fact is the vast majority understand this is a prepaid vacation.

.

Ok...you do admit there is value is renting those points. That means these contracts never become worthless.

Let's take the next step...resale. You seem to think there would be no value is resale and again, that's not true. if you have years left on your contract that still represents a way for someone to pay MF costs instead of renting. Doesn't matter if it's 1 year left on the contract or 29. People buy one time discounts everyday via Groupon, LivingSocial, etc just to save $5. You think someone wouldn't buy a resale contract to save $500???

 

[theguda]

I do agree that anyone that bought in the last year bought at the bottom of the market. I think that durning the recession a lot of people were forced to sell and it was a buyer's market. Today with the limited inventory of points, it looks like a seller's market, which should keep price higher than all of us 'deal hunters' are use.

How I wish my OKW contracts from last Mar had made it through ROFR. I think it will be a long time before I get someone to accept $39/point for OKW.

I wish i would have bought a few months ago...but after looking at historical #'s I'm happy to pay $68 for a stacked BWV contract. I could be wrong and prices could drop...but it looks more likely that we've just exited a bottom period in the market

 

[NoleFan]

Right now, prices are much higher due to increased demand, DVC exercising ROFR more frequently, less inventory, & wait lists generated by the price increase. Once GF is offered for sale, I don't think this trend is going to continue. I think prices will stabilize. People may sell their old properties to purchase GF or people may simply be interested in purchasing GF with less focus & demand on older properties. I don't necessarily think prices will decrease significantly, if at all, but I don't think they are going to continue to sharply increase. Smaller contracts (under 100 points) will continue to sell for a premium as they are less readily available & demand for those is consistently greater. Even looking at the Fidelity web site, prices range from 1/2 of buying direct to equal to buying direct. Doesn't mean a seller is going to get asking price. $85 on a stripped, larger point point contract is inflated. I just don't see anyone paying asking price. I would not pay that for a 50 point stripped contract either. Although someone may as the difference is nominal on a smaller contract although I don't see the value in it.

 

[Minniesgal]

The prices you're seeing are not...repeat...not inflated. Instead, the prices paid over the past year or so were overly deflated.

These prices aren't going back down. They're going to keep rising. When Disney announces DVC at the Grand Floridian you're gonna see a spike in interest. People will want DVC and those those won't pay the GF price will look for alternatives in the resale market. This demand will continue to drive prices up. Trust me...I slept in a Holiday Inn last night.

If you want a good deal...you can still find them. Those who wait will pay higher prices in the future. If you bought a contract within the last year...congratulations, you bought at the bottom.

I disagree totally I think the current prices are an artificially inflated bubble driven by Disney advertising and low inventory. Disney are fairly well through the direct wait lists. the reason i know this is i wait listed VGC in January and was told several times that had the longest wait list of all and my points have come through already. ROFR buy backs have been lower recently than they were just a few weeks ago.

Disney cleverly created a frenzy that buyers and sellers reacted to. I believe certainly the top end of the asking prices we see today will drop very soon.

The classic resorts will drop in value quite soon as people are going to be come more and more aware of the expiry date. I'm not convinced VGF will make a lot of people buy personally it doesn't interest me at all and I know a lot of the same opinion. Now if it were the Poly different story.

 

[Minniesgal]

That's completely untrue. Let's pretend DVC started decades ago and when it started you bought a 100 point BWV contract that expires in 3 years. The MF's this year are $5.84...or $584 for all 100 points. The next cheapest option to stay at WDW is to rent points for around $12....or $1200 for 100 points.

Right off the bat your contract saves the owner $616 the first year. Extrapolate that over the 3 years remaining on the contract (assuming a similar savings each year, which is a safe assumption) and the remainder of your contract would save the owner over $1800. That's hardly worthless. A smart person would buy your contract for $1000 and realize an $800 savings over 3 years.

When you say today's contracts are worthless in 15-20 years...that's simply not true. I have a feeling you wouldnt hand over your contracts to me for free in 15-20 years. If so, I'll gladly take them off your hands.

You missed the point of that statement, the BWV contract might be worth something to you in 15 years as you already own it but no-one is going to pay you to take it off your hands.

 

[theguda]

You missed the point of that statement, the BWV contract might be worth something to you in 15 years as you already own it but no-one is going to pay you to take it off your hands.

Again...not true. I don't know why this is hard to accept...but people will buy anything if it saves them money. Why do you think people stand in line for hours on Black Friday...or join websites like Slickdeals or Fat Wallet?
Tell you what...I'll buy any contract with 5 years remaining for $500 and make a small fortune renting the points....and so would all of the DVC rental point brokers. Anyone who tries to sell their DVC contract will never have a problem doing so. There will be plenty of people willing to buy it (either to rent the points out or to save $ on their own vacation). These contracts are never ever "worthless" and will always have a market for rental and resale. They will always have value not only to the current owner...but also to anyone who wants to rent points OR someone who would like to buy the contract to realize the savings until it expired.

 

[lodge]

Geez, maybe I should have listed my contract for more! I listed a 50 point BWV stripped contract a week or so ago and settled on $73/point. Granted, I doubt they'll get $85 for those contracts but may well get above what I got for a much larger contract.

The site that listed the BWV contract in the $80's typically has listings well above market price. Personally, I would not pay those inflated prices.Also, none of those have gone to contract yet. Upcoming price reductions?

Me neither. However, there are people who are considering buying direct at $130pp who still see this as a discount.

That's been my thought process, then I saw a contract (always seem to be watching them) with small points, loaded to the gills, and the total cost of it paid for accommodations for a trip this year that we had not expected to use points for.... paid for itself right out of the gate.

 

[Minniesgal]

Again...not true. I don't know why this is hard to accept...but people will buy anything if it saves them money. Why do you think people stand in line for hours on Black Friday...or join websites like Slickdeals or Fat Wallet?
Tell you what...I'll buy any contract with 5 years remaining for $500 and make a small fortune renting the points....and so would all of the DVC rental point brokers. Anyone who tries to sell their DVC contract will never have a problem doing so. There will be plenty of people willing to buy it (either to rent the points out or to save $ on their own vacation). These contracts are never ever "worthless" and will always have a market for rental and resale. They will always have value not only to the current owner...but also to anyone who wants to rent points OR someone who would like to buy the contract to realize the savings until it expired.

I wouldn't call being sellable for $500 having residual sales value.

 

[theguda]

I wouldn't call being sellable for $500 having residual value.

is $500 higher than $0? Of course it's residual value. But $500 was just an arbitrary # I picked. Someone buying that contract for $1000 would still give them value and give you $1000 back. The point is...you guys are saying the contracts are worthless to anyone else but the original owner (not true) and there is no residual value (not true).

 

[fmer55]

You missed the point of that statement, the BWV contract might be worth something to you in 15 years as you already own it but no-one is going to pay you to take it off your hands.

Precisely what I was saying...........

Again...not true. I don't know why this is hard to accept...but people will buy anything if it saves them money. Why do you think people stand in line for hours on Black Friday...or join websites like Slickdeals or Fat Wallet?
Tell you what...I'll buy any contract with 5 years remaining for $500 and make a small fortune renting the points....and so would all of the DVC rental point brokers. Anyone who tries to sell their DVC contract will never have a problem doing so. There will be plenty of people willing to buy it (either to rent the points out or to save $ on their own vacation). These contracts are never ever "worthless" and will always have a market for rental and resale. They will always have value not only to the current owner...but also to anyone who wants to rent points OR someone who would like to buy the contract to realize the savings until it expired.

I almost went analytical on you, but then decided I am done. 2 weeks ago buying DVC was foolish, now you are the foremost mentioned expert on all DVC economics, a Kreskin of DVC.

is $500 higher than $0? Of course it's residual value. But $500 was just an arbitrary # I picked. Someone buying that contract for $1000 would still give them value and give you $1000 back. The point is...you guys are saying the contracts are worthless to anyone else but the original owner (not true) and there is no residual value (not true).

$500 bucks in 10 years? worth about $2.83 cents today, good luck with your points, hope you enjoy, I am done with this thread

 

[theguda]

Precisely what I was saying...........

I almost went analytical on you, but then decided I am done. 2 weeks ago buying DVC was foolish, now you are the foremost mentioned expert on all DVC economics, a Kreskin of DVC.

$500 bucks in 10 years? worth about $2.83 cents today, good luck with your points, hope you enjoy, I am done with this thread

Don't get mad because I'm proving to you that your contract isn't worthless in 15 years. I'm actually doing you a favor. The #'s I'm using in my example are TODAY'S numbers. They assume you bought the contract decades ago. Smh

I can see now how you'd mistakenly think your contract would become worthless. I look forward to buying contracts from others who feel the same in 15 years. I'll make a fortune buying these "worthless" contracts and renting the points for profit. A great investment.

 

[CarolMN]

As with most anything, the contracts will be worth what someone is willing to pay for them at the time the owner wants to sell.

As long as WDW remains a place people want to visit, the contracts will have some value. IMO, the value of the contract will depend on the rates Disney charges for on site lodging as well as the number of contracts for sale. Both factors will be important!

Those who want to stay on site, will be able to compare doing that with the price of a contract. There will be some who see only a few years remaining as a plus. The end date was a plus for us when we bought - less of a long-term financial commitment to pay for a luxury.

 

[ELMC]

Again...not true. I don't know why this is hard to accept...but people will buy anything if it saves them money. Why do you think people stand in line for hours on Black Friday...or join websites like Slickdeals or Fat Wallet?
Tell you what...I'll buy any contract with 5 years remaining for $500 and make a small fortune renting the points....and so would all of the DVC rental point brokers. Anyone who tries to sell their DVC contract will never have a problem doing so. There will be plenty of people willing to buy it (either to rent the points out or to save $ on their own vacation). These contracts are never ever "worthless" and will always have a market for rental and resale. They will always have value not only to the current owner...but also to anyone who wants to rent points OR someone who would like to buy the contract to realize the savings until it expired.

In my opinion, you get yourself into trouble when you use words like "never", "always", and from a previous post, "guarantee". DVC is a timeshare. It has an expiration date. It is subject to ever increasing maintenance fees and an unstable point rental market with a less than generous history. And finally, it is controlled by Disney and their ability to make changes with the swipe of the pen. What I'm saying is that there are WAY too many variables to make any assumption beyond what is guaranteed...the right to book lodging at your home resort. To me, banking on anything else from an investment (or even a vacation) standpoint is too risky.

I wish i would have bought a few months ago...but after looking at historical #'s I'm happy to pay $68 for a stacked BWV contract. I could be wrong and prices could drop...but it looks more likely that we've just exited a bottom period in the market

I'm a bit nervous here, and I'll tell you why. Just as you used the numbers to convince yourself that DVC was a bad option a few weeks ago, you are now equally as vocal about using the numbers to convince yourself that it's a good investment. The problem is that they are the same numbers, and yet you are using them to draw two polar opposite conclusions.

I'm curious, and I ask this genuinely and not to insult you, how did you come to this change in thinking?

 

[theguda]

As with most anything, the contracts will be worth what someone is willing to pay for them at the time the owner wants to sell.

As long as WDW remains a place people want to visit, the contracts will have some value. IMO, the value of the contract will depend on the rates Disney charges for on site lodging as well as the number of contracts for sale. Both factors will be important!

Those who want to stay on site, will be able to compare doing that with the price of a contract. There will be some who see only a few years remaining as a plus. The end date was a plus for us when we bought - less of a long-term financial commitment to pay for a luxury.

Excellent points

 

[theguda]

In my opinion, you get yourself into trouble when you use words like "never", "always", and from a previous post, "guarantee". DVC is a timeshare. It has an expiration date. It is subject to ever increasing maintenance fees and an unstable point rental market with a less than generous history. And finally, it is controlled by Disney and their ability to make changes with the swipe of the pen. What I'm saying is that there are WAY too many variables to make any assumption beyond what is guaranteed...the right to book lodging at your home resort. To me, banking on anything else from an investment (or even a vacation) standpoint is too risky.

I'm a bit nervous here, and I'll tell you why. Just as you used the numbers to convince yourself that DVC was a bad option a few weeks ago, you are now equally as vocal about using the numbers to convince yourself that it's a good investment. The problem is that they are the same numbers, and yet you are using them to draw two polar opposite conclusions.

I'm curious, and I ask this genuinely and not to insult you, how did you come to this change in thinking?

No insult taken at all. I say that I wish I would've bought a few months ago because I could have bought at a lower price point.

As for what changed my mind on owning... It was two things:

1) Despite what many say I do view DVC as a quasi investment. The extra points I have on my contract each year will be rented to offset the upfront cost of the contract. Eventually the profit I make in rent will overtake the cost of the contract and from that point on I will be in the black. So from a financial standpoint it does make sense to purchase and recoup my initial costs by renting extra points. Some think the gap between MF's and rent will eventually close. I don't think that will happen. The more I researched and looked at numbers like historical maintenance fees, historical resale prices, etc. it made me believe that there is an opportunity to profit off extra points.

2) I go to disney every year and i love Epcot and the food and wine festival. To me, being pretty much guaranteed a room at BWV during F&W has a huge value to it. I am in control of the booking and I don't have to rely on finding someone to rent points from that can book 11 months out.

Also...I get to debate with you guys!

 

[permavac]

I personally agree that our DVC will not be worthless - even during the year of expiration, barring any unforeseen disasters, but this (see below)?

...These prices aren't going back down. They're going to keep rising...

...Those who wait will pay higher prices in the future...

The nature of a "recession" and the damage that it inflicts is this: Most people don't see it coming. Do you think the people who sold the past 2 years were hoping to sell at "rock bottom" prices? No - no they didn't. Bottom line - nothing is guaranteed and resale prices could drop like a stone after GF or they could continue to rise. We just don't know.

Terri

 

[theguda]

I personally agree that our DVC will not be worthless - even during the year of expiration, barring any unforeseen disasters, but this (see below)?

The nature of a "recession" and the damage that it afflicts is this: Most people don't see it coming. Do you think the people who sold the past 2 years were hoping to sell at "rock bottom" prices? No - no they didn't. Bottom line - nothing is guaranteed and resale prices could drop like a stone after GF or they could continue to rise. We just don't know.

Terri

It's good to see someone else understands that these contracts will always hold value.

As for your 2nd comment...you are correct. No one knows FOR SURE what will happen in the future. I just think there is a better chance that prices will rise instead of decrease and the recent low prices are the exception...not the rule. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But I think I'll be right.

 

[ELMC]

We just don't know.

Terri

This sums it up perfectly.

It's good to see someone else understands that these contracts will always hold value.

The value in a DVC contract is in its use and in what someone will pay you for it. So it doesn't matter if there is opportunity for profit in a contract with 10 or 15 years left, if no one will pay you for it then the resale value is zero. That being said, you will still be able to use it or profit from renting points (if such a situation exists). To speculate that this will be the case, however, is too risky IMO.