Actually, even that is changing with FP+. I have a couple of friends down there this week who are reporting 100+ minute waits for TSMM at 9:15, 60+min for Soarin by 9:30, etc. While the earliest slots seem to be less popular (as reflected in the fact that they've been the only ones available to the friends who couldn't book their FP+ before arrival because of ticket issues), you still have to factor the fact that FP returns now start the minute the park opens, rather than having that first hour of the entire ride capacity being filled from the standby line.
It seems to me that the entire FP+ system is about rationing rides. Disney knows they don't have the capacity for everyone to enjoy every popular attraction, so they're rationing FP access to those top-tier attractions and counting on very long standby times to encourage guests to seek out less in-demand alternatives. Meanwhile, they're manufacturing a perception of value/scarcity by offering fastpasses for rides that are walk-ons at all but the busiest times of year, and steering guests to those attractions using entirely unnecessary pre-assigned ride times.
Yep. They said as much when they publicly stated that they weren't interested in an arms race of rides with Universal. We'll just have to see how that works for them.
This is where I think Disney has made a huge miscalculation. They're counting on first-timers being thrilled that they were able to reserve a time for Space Mountain and because the lines for the other headliners are really long, they will be just as happy going to see Stitch and Carousel of Progress.
But let's be honest, a lot of people (while perhaps glad that they didn't have to wait so long for Space Mountain) are still going to be unhappy that they had to wait so long for Splash and Thunder Mountain... or worse, the lines were so long that they didn't even get to ride them (I know... they CHOSE not to wait in the 1-2 hour line).
One of the biggest complaints first timers have about WDW is crowds/waits. Tossing them a bone by giving them one headliner ride with a shorter wait is not going to be enough to offset the fact that those guests have to wait in long lines the rest of the day. FP+ really doesn't fix that. Some would argue that FP- was no better, but we'll just have to agree to disagree on that point. At least with FP- (and a halfway decent touring strategy) they
could have reduced those waits tremendously.
Also, as has been pointed out repeatedly, tiers are necessary because of the capacity limits not meeting demand for the headliners. What I haven't seen a good answer for yet is this... during the busy season, even with tiers, FP+ offerings for headliners will probably sell out. So guests who wait too long to make their reservations will get a "no available experiences" message for tier 1 and (I assume) be given the option for an extra tier 2 or 3 reservation (little consolation for them). So the very "type" of guest Disney is supposedly trying to cater to and improve their experience is going to be out in the cold.
There will still be guests who go home and say "We're never going back. The lines were so long, we couldn't get on any of the rides. Well, we did get on three rides with FP+, but those were lame and the waits for the good rides were all 2 hours!"
Most people are not stupid. They will figure out that some of those token FPs were a bait and switch.
