How low will Disney let Poly go?

[Brianstl]

That's fine but again it's not like the housing market because of a few reasons.

1. The job reduction is temporary and government enforced.
2. Unemployment payments are also proped up by additional money the receiver gets.
3. People don't have huge payments like their mortgage (most don't have any payment).
4. You can't rent out your house like DVC.

So yes things are serious but I just keep seeing these analogies to the past when it's really not the same. Numbers more interesting for me is bankruptcy numbers for both business and individuals.

You are making an assumption that most of the job losses are temporary. The next official unemployment rate number will be double that of at any point during the last economic crisis. Cutting the current number in half in less than six months or even a year would be a small miracle. There just isn’t going to be enough economic activity for that.

Unemployment payments are only propped up until July, plus most people lost their medical coverage. The cost of COBRA or uninsured medical expenses more than wipe out the boost in unemployment.

Huge payments aren’t the first thing people get rid of when facing a financial crisis. Those usually represent a person’s housing and transportation. People view those as essential. They cut the things they view as luxuries.

You are making a huge assumption that there will be significant demand for DVC rentals going forward. Are people really going to want to rent DVC when they are hearing the horror stories about trying to get refunds for rentals scheduled during a resort closure when they know we could only be spike in cases away from another shutdown in the future while we wait for a vaccine?

 

[CastAStone]

The job reduction is temporary and government enforced.

When we start losing restaurants and retailers forever in the next few weeks, those job losses won't be temporary. Bravo-Brio filed for bankruptcy last week and indicated many of their restaurants won't reopen. The company that owns Logans and Gordon Biersch was trying to work through a Chapter 11, but earlier this month when they did layoffs, they didn't furlough - they fired. Lord & Taylor and Nieman Marcus bankruptcies are expected next week, and it's very possible neither will survive. JC Penney skipped a loan payment 2 weeks ago, and their creditor could choose for force them into bankruptcy for it (they haven't so far).

I also don't think prices will fall sharply for the next several months but if and when it does happen, it will probably be little by little, but then all at once.

 

[Sandisw]

You are making an assumption that most of the job losses are temporary. The next official unemployment rate number will be double that of at any point during the last economic crisis. Cutting the current number in half in less than six months or even a year would be a small miracle. There just isn’t going to be enough economic activity for that.

Unemployment payments are only propped up until July, plus most people lost their medical coverage. The cost of COBRA or uninsured medical expenses more than wipe out the boost in unemployment.

Huge payments aren’t the first thing people get rid of when facing a financial crisis. Those usually represent a person’s housing and transportation. People view those as essential. They cut the things they view as luxuries.

You are making a huge assumption that there will be significant demand for DVC rentals going forward. Are people really going to want to rent DVC when they are hearing the horror stories about trying to get refunds for rentals scheduled during a resort closure when they know we could only be spike in cases away from another shutdown in the future while we wait for a vaccine?

I completely agree, People may be selling now to beat the downturn and to eliminate dues as well as get an influx of cash,

I also agree about rental market. No way will I get involved again. Someone just posted in another thread the discount for a BCV is about $300 going with a broker Not enough to overcome the no refunds IMO,

As someone who is in the process of selling, it took weeks to get offers on my BWV, which was priced lower than what took 2 days in the fall when I was selling my other BWV...similar contracts too,

I really think buyers will be getting some good deals and that sellers may simply take them because in my experience, the offers weren’t there

 

[Brianstl]

I completely agree, People may be selling now to beat the downturn and to eliminate dues as well as get an influx of cash,

I also agree about rental market. No way will I get involved again. Someone just posted in another thread the discount for a BCV is about $300 going with a broker Not enough to overcome the no refunds IMO,

As someone who is in the process of selling, it took weeks to get offers on my BWV, which was priced lower than what took 2 days in the fall when I was selling my other BWV...similar contracts too,

I really think buyers will be getting some good deals and that sellers may simply take them because in my experience, the offers weren’t there

It will be interesting to see if there is any discount at all in three months. My guess at the current DVC rental cost that it will be considerably cheaper to book a hotel room.

 

[sethschroeder]

You are making an assumption that most of the job losses are temporary.

So the unemployment right now is not primarily driven by government mandated shutdowns? All these businesses under and open market would be closed with these sorts of unemployment numbers?

You are making a huge assumption that there will be significant demand for DVC rentals going forward.

You are telling me if I posted my points for 2020 or 2021 right now I could easily get $9-$10/point to cover my MFs?

That is roughly $900 for a studio at SSR in November for a week. There is zero doubts as long as WDW is open you couldnt get your MFs covered.

When we start losing restaurants and retailers forever in the next few weeks, those job losses won't be temporary.

As that job loss starts to increase then I will start looking at thing is differently. I am not however going to try and predict white collar job loss that more directly relates to DVC when a majority of companies that I work with are doing at this point still temporary decreases in employees.

My point since the start for the last few weeks is you can't look at unemployment rates and then just look back at historical rates as again a majority of employment increases are driven by government mandated shutdowns with loss of jobs either temporarily or permanently.

I also agree about rental market. No way will I get involved again.

It's not about wanting to get involved but here is the equation in December. Do you rent your BWV points to cover MFs in 2020 or do you sell your contract for $90/point.

That is the sort of thing people will be deciding. They can rent out there points for $10/point, cover MFs, have a little left over, and hold on to their contract.

Things could be much much worse and none of the jobs ever return. At that point Disney might not ever reopen. Again until I am hearing about small businesses shutting down in mass I think the economy will rebound as things reopen.

Need to remeber there is also a portion of the US right now with lower than typical expenses that are making the same wages and thus building up saving they will likely dump in to local economy once let out of the house.

 

[holyrita]

What resort? In the article, there were definitely some more ROFR'd than others. Old Key West had a good amount, while SSR was ignored.

Waiting to hear from my broker that it has been sent to Disney for ROFR before posting.

 

[FireworksEverAfter]

I know they can’t increase points of the resorts, but from talking to a CM awhile ago I was told they can move points from one area to another. Does this mean they could change the point value of the rooms?

With the influx of contracts, I would be strongly concerned if they decided to raise the price of all studios by decreasing the point values of bungalows. Anyone else see this as a possibility?

 

[sethschroeder]

I know they can’t increase points of the resorts, but from talking to a CM awhile ago I was told they can move points from one area to another. Does this mean they could change the point value of the rooms?

With the influx of contracts, I would be strongly concerned if they decided to raise the price of all studios by decreasing the point values of bungalows. Anyone else see this as a possibility?

There is threads about this. I never walked away with a full answer.

It seemed than people thought they can't but doesn't mean Disney wouldn't try.

 

[DisMomKY]

I know they can’t increase points of the resorts, but from talking to a CM awhile ago I was told they can move points from one area to another. Does this mean they could change the point value of the rooms?

With the influx of contracts, I would be strongly concerned if they decided to raise the price of all studios by decreasing the point values of bungalows. Anyone else see this as a possibility?

Oh I didn’t even think about that, maybe I should stick with SSR or AKL so I can buy a little bit of a surplus

 

[Sandisw]

I know they can’t increase points of the resorts, but from talking to a CM awhile ago I was told they can move points from one area to another. Does this mean they could change the point value of the rooms?

With the influx of contracts, I would be strongly concerned if they decided to raise the price of all studios by decreasing the point values of bungalows. Anyone else see this as a possibility?

Yes, they can adjust the charts, as long as it stays point neutral. So, studios could go up and 1 bedrooms can go down,

The point charts are built around 2 bedrooms as lock offs, so it allows them to adjust across room size,

From my understanding it becomes trickier for dedicated rooms. After I first joined, they made weekdays higher and lowered weekend to even it out,

So, it’s always good to have a cushion,.,or make sure you have enough to travel in the highest season.

 

[spunkylouamanda]

All this DVC price speculation is way too premature. I don't think we'll have any clue if there will be a major price decrease until February/March of next year when dues are past due. Even if we are seeing some reduction now, it's not going to nose dive, if at all, until 2021. You'll see some crazy deals that are anomalies like that $100/point 100 point Poly contract -- that is not the market, that's an anomaly. To Disney - Poly is prime real estate. DVC is not it's end-all, be-all, and it could easily rent rooms at the rate that they earn from DVC fees/purchases. They will ROFR contracts.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

All this DVC price speculation is way too premature. I don't think we'll have any clue if there will be a major price decrease until February/March of next year when dues are past due. Even if we are seeing some reduction now, it's not going to nose dive, if at all, until 2021. You'll see some crazy deals that are anomalies like that $100/point 100 point Poly contract -- that is not the market, that's an anomaly. To Disney - Poly is prime real estate. DVC is not it's end-all, be-all, and it could easily rent rooms at the rate that they earn from DVC fees/purchases. They will ROFR contracts.

I could see this for contracts that are paid in full and dont hit those laid off until dues are due but what about the ones with financing payments due every month? Those are the contracts that might get sold at lower prices. If they can't make their mortgage payments or car payments DVC might be the first thing to go unfortunately.

 

[Noah_t]

Q1 2018. BTW, if anyone is looking for a deal. Follow @poofyo101 consistently gets the deals according to ROFR threads.



That logic does have some merit as some won't be able to afford it. But I don't know that it fully qualifies. By that theory, Six Flags would be a hot commodity due to multiple state locations (ie, no airfare) and cheaper park tickets. While they're doing relatively well, they're no Disney. The same has always been the case with resorts and hotels. DVC has never been able to compete with outside resorts, nor has Disney cash reservations. I mean heck, you could rent a 3 bedroom townhouse for $99/night 15 minutes from the park on AirBnB. You can even buy a 3bed, 2 bath right in Celebration for $200,000. At $235/pt for Poly, that's about 850 points and I'm already at 300!

I for one, never stayed on Disney property growing up. Even as an adult you can easily find hotel deals for under $50/night. For years, I lobbied to buy a house in Kissimmee instead. Point in time they were $75k-$100k. From an investment perspective, DVC and staying on property will never match that.

But I can also say, staying on Disney property has been a tremendously different vacation experience. Staying off property, we went to Florida. We visited Disney while we were in Florida, but we mostly vacationed in Florida. But because we stayed off property, we ate off property and we visited other parks. It was more economical that way. A week stay would mean maybe 2 days at Disney. With DVC, we go to Disney. It costs us a boatload more, but it's been worth every penny.

I couldn't agree more about staying on property. Sure the financial argument makes no sense whatsoever but the intangibles of sleeping on property make it worthwhile to me.
My main argument was mainly directed at Aulani and even then it's filled with wishful thinking as I am hoping to see Aulanis price per point drop a lot. Lol

 

[DisMomKY]

Have any of you all bought less point than what you *really* need then added more later? I found a 100 pt poly with 2020 points I can bank and we can split those up by banking future years to make it last for 3ish years then we would need to add on 25-40 points for the future after that. Is that a dumb idea? Should we just wait out a 120-130 pt contract?

 

[Noah_t]

Have any of you all bought less point than what you *really* need then added more later? I found a 100 pt poly with 2020 points I can bank and we can split those up by banking future years to make it last for 3ish years then we would need to add on 25-40 points for the future after that. Is that a dumb idea? Should we just wait out a 120-130 pt contract?

Disclaimer: What you are about to read contains absolutely no knowledge whatsoever. Pure speculation and guesswork.

Remember now Disney has the new banking rules that only allow you to borrow 50% so you should keep that in mind. I also believe if you wait a few months price will have dropped enough where you will be able to afford that many more points.

 

[Sandisw]

Have any of you all bought less point than what you *really* need then added more later? I found a 100 pt poly with 2020 points I can bank and we can split those up by banking future years to make it last for 3ish years then we would need to add on 25-40 points for the future after that. Is that a dumb idea? Should we just wait out a 120-130 pt contract?

That is how I started out in 2009, and slowly got up to 825. Now I just sold BWV so we will be back to 675, but as soon as it closes in June I will be on the hunt for VGF or BLT from 125 to 150!

 

[Yinn]

Have any of you all bought less point than what you *really* need then added more later? I found a 100 pt poly with 2020 points I can bank and we can split those up by banking future years to make it last for 3ish years then we would need to add on 25-40 points for the future after that. Is that a dumb idea? Should we just wait out a 120-130 pt contract?

Is this going to be your first contract?

I think first and foremost is, if that’s what you can afford. Thats fine. There’s nothing wrong with a 100 point contract.

Otherwise, I bought a 75 pointer first. It’s good for long weekends, and I have to visit on the cheap. Then I bought a 200 point add-on which I thought was absurd. And it is...if I kept my travel habits. But I found myswlf using it for 1 bedrooms (roughly 1.5x points) longer trips (7 days vs 3 or 4) and more frequent (3-4x a year vs 1) and now I need more. MORE! I need a DVCA group. Hi, my name is Yinn and I’m a DVC addict...

 

[sethschroeder]

To Disney - Poly is prime real estate. DVC is not it's end-all, be-all, and it could easily rent rooms at the rate that they earn from DVC fees/purchases. They will ROFR contracts.

I see these comments come up all the time. People forget during their biggest growth period likely in company history they built DVC not hotels. They tore down sections of resorts to build DVC not hotel rooms.

Now during a downturn they are suddenly going to want the rooms back that they didn't want on the hotel side for the last 10+ years?

This is exactly when they want DVC more than ever. Zero investment of marketing and resources to get 96-100% capacity.

 

[DisMomKY]

Is this going to be your first contract?

I think first and foremost is, if that’s what you can afford. Thats fine. There’s nothing wrong with a 100 point contract.

Otherwise, I bought a 75 pointer first. It’s good for long weekends, and I have to visit on the cheap. Then I bought a 200 point add-on which I thought was absurd. And it is...if I kept my travel habits. But I found myswlf using it for 1 bedrooms (roughly 1.5x points) longer trips (7 days vs 3 or 4) and more frequent (3-4x a year vs 1) and now I need more. MORE! I need a DVCA group. Hi, my name is Yinn and I’m a DVC addict...

We had 2, 100 pointers at AKL and SSR but we should be closing on both of them being sold this week. We only had them both for a few month but made money on them and decided we really needed to own at a MK area or boardwalk or resort

 

[Yinn]

We had 2, 100 pointers at AKL and SSR but we should be closing on both of them being sold this week. We only had them both for a few month but made money on them and decided we really needed to own at a MK area or boardwalk or resort

Booking PVB studios is going to be the same cost as booking a 1BR Value at AKL. So gauge it off of that one.

If you felt 100 points was enough but you were staying in Studios at AKL then you might want more.