One should not purchase AKV with the intent to usually get value or club level rooms. That will lead to disappointment. Owners of AKV can begin booking at 8 a.m. eastern 11-months from date of arrival. The AKV value and club level studios and 2BRs usually fill, year-round, within nano-seconds after 8 a.m. -- the winners are simply those whose computers communicate faster with Disney's computers than the many others also trying to reserve. Thus, the concept of "walking," where you try to reserve well before your desired time and then make continuous modifications to "walk" into the actual time you want, usually itself fails for those rooms because there is no good time to start a walk. To even start a walk, you typically need to spend a lot of days, potentially even months, trying to reserve daily at 11-months out for any given date first thing in the morning and hoping you get lucky.
The best times to attempt to start a walk, assuming one can be attempted at all for those AKV value and club level studios and 2BRs, is usually for reserving time during the lower
DVC demand times of the year, which are (starting with THE lowest): Feb 1 to the Thurs before Presidents' Day, July 7-July 31, the Monday after the Princess half marathon weekend in late Feb through about March 8, and the last week of April.
The 1BR value and club level rooms have somewhat better probability of being open at 11-months out, but even those disappear about 50% of the year right at 11-months out, and, for time from the last week of Sep through marathon weekend in Jan, the highest DVC demand time of the year at WDW, those usually also disappear right at 8 a.m. at 11-months out.
Having a use year start month close to the time you want to go is not a favorable situation for doing a walk. You mention possibly getting a Sep use year with the possibility of going in Sep. That would be an impossible situation for a walk. Example, assume you want to reserve Sep 1-8, 2024. Your Sep 2023 points would be useless for starting a walk for that Sep time. That is because any of the time during the walk has to be during your Sep 2023 use year, which expires Aug 31, 2024. Those Sep 2023 points expire Aug 31, 2024, and thus cannot possibly be used to walk into a trip that begins Sep 1, 2024. Moreover, you cannot bank those points into the Sep 2024 use year unless you do so by April 30, 2024, and thus the walk would have to end then if you needed them for a Sep 2024 trip. Borrowing has a like problem. You cannot borrow points from a Sep 2024 use year into your Sep 2023 use year to do a walk into a Sep 1, 2024 start date for a reservation, because those borrowed points cannot be used for time during the use year from which they came. In others words, banking and borrowing are not concepts that favor a walk. Walks require that points used to begin a walk -- whether current use year, banked or borrowed points -- already be in the use year that you want the actual reservation to occur.
In other words, if you want to attempt any walk, you need a use year that starts well before the desired reservation time. because any walk can start no earlier than the beginning of the use year during which the intended trip will occur.
