How do blockout dates affect crowds at Disney World?

[Rubeng724]

I understand that locals make up a large part at Disneyland, but wondering about Disney World.

I am contemplating an early July 2025 trip, before or after July 4th. I see that the two lower tier APs are blocked out July 1 - 4 (Tues - Fri).

I am wondering, will crowds be lower than expected before July 4th, or after when the holiday is over but APs aren’t blocked anymore?

Any tips or insights would be appreciated. Thank you!

 

[scrappinginontario]

It might make some difference but not a lot. The good thing is that July 4th week no longer brings in the large crowds it once did. Crowds might be a bit smaller during block out days but nothing of significance I don't believe.

Looking at Touring Plans (the crowd calendar I choose to use), it is not showing any difference in anticipated crowds leading up to July 4th as opposed to after. No planning site is perfect but I do like TP and find them to be as accurate as any.