How accurate do you think crowd trackers have been historically?

[DisneyKoyote]

Out of curiosity, how accurate do you think crowd trackers have been in the past? Were the crowds mostly on point with the predictions or all over the place?

Not revolving my trip around them or anything (plans are already set regardless of trackers!), but just wondering.

 

[TheBigErn]

Depends on what you mean. It's very easy to predict crowds around holidays in general. I have found them less and less useful as crowds have been generally big the last several years and the old low crowd times are fewer and fewer. So I think they are becoming less useful.

 

[monkyby87]

They used to be somewhat reliable, as they often used historical crowd data to make predictions. And some times are always going to be busier than others (Christmas, Fourth of July, etc.) However, there have been so many changes to Disney over these past several years that they are becoming less and less accurate all the time. With things like EEMH, DAK, and all of the ongoing construction, it's very hard now to accurately predict crowds. As I mentioned, there are some times that you know will be busy regardless, but those are also the times when you don't need a crowd calendar to tell you that information. Personally, I don't use them anymore or even consult them to see what things used to be like. Overall attendance has also been down reportedly, so that too will affect things.

Now that I've said my opinion, everyone else can chime in saying how they're extremely accurate or the worst thing ever conceived by man

 

[_19disnA]

3rd party efforts at crowd prediction are fairly useless. Applying a formula to historical data doesn't make your future predictions any more reliable or accurate. Disney doesn't provide advance booking info to such people and even Disney doesn't know how many locals with AP's will just decide to show up some weekend when there is good weather. Trying to further sub-divide that to specific parks (or even rides) is a complete waste of time.

As prior poster mentioned, certain holidays tend to be peak times for Disney and there isn't anything to predict.

 

[BobbyDukes]

Definitely use them, they are another tool in the box. Weather, school schedules and Disney parties/marathons/events all affect the crowd numbers.
I always look at the calender's but never rely on them, use them more for a heads up what I may expect for crowds.

 

[AuntJamelle]

I was very happy with Touring Plans - maybe I just got lucky - but their predictions helped me pick which parks for which days - and then when touring in the park I used their Lines app (and MDE) to figure out best rides to hit next.

I think it is a good point though that so much has changed - I think being aware of holidays, EMH etc. and trying to go the way the majority of people will NOT be going is a good idea. We went in late Sept and enjoyed low crowds - didn't get rained on once despite it being hurricane season - but I think it's just luck of the draw.