Historical Race Weekend Sell Out Timing

[fatmanatee]

2027 MW update!

Goofy: 42 min
10k: 47 min
Dopey: 64 min
Half (30th anniversary): 72 min
Full: 75 min
5k (increased spots): 81 min

VERY clear sign that they've significantly increased 5k spots, and definitely looks an increase in demand for the half due to the anniversary but doesn't seem too crazy.

 

[Mr_Incr3dible]

I am astounded at Goofy going first, and how quickly.

 

[marty3d]

I am astounded at Goofy going first, and how quickly.

It's the smallest group. I think any bibs rD allocates to Goofy reduce the number of Dopey bibs available therefore they keep Goofy small.

 

[fatmanatee]

Think it's like around 1000 Goofy Bibs and 8000 Dopey bibs, something like that. You can tell how small that group is comparatively just based on the bib pickup area.

 

[Mr_Incr3dible]

When I did my one Dopey 4 years ago, I recall going into the bib building and there were the rows of booths for all the races and challenges. Multiple booths for each. And one booth for Dopey by my recollection. So has the Goofy/Dopey ratio always been as lopsided as it is now, or did Goofy used to be bigger and the Dopey smaller? Or is my memory that faulty? I'm beginning to suspect the latter....

 

[FlyingDonut]

When I did my one Dopey 4 years ago, I recall going into the bib building and there were the rows of booths for all the races and challenges. Multiple booths for each. And one booth for Dopey by my recollection. So has the Goofy/Dopey ratio always been as lopsided as it is now, or did Goofy used to be bigger and the Dopey smaller? Or is my memory that faulty? I'm beginning to suspect the latter....

OK I'll bite. I got the challenge results going back to 2016. I've counted the number of PAGES of finishers, and the number of finishers on the second page (first page has fewer due to larger header.) This assumes the last page is full. It's not. It misses anyone who had their names removed from the results (influencers do this sometimes). Finally, it misses DNFs.
So if (DNFs + influencers) > ~45, I undercounted bibs.

It does appear that Goofy is becoming less popular relative to Dopey, but it's mostly driven by spikes in people doing Dopey. Exclusive Goofy appears to be on a slow decline for several years. Because people who do Dopey definitionally do Goofy, this ratio can't go below 1. Note my Y axis not starting at 0 in the ratio plot.






I blame silly errors on inability to sleep. If you want to poke around for yourself, the link formulas are:
https://www.trackshackresults.com/disneysports/results/wdw/wdwYY/
where YY is the last to digits of the year you want results to. Works as far back as 2013.

EDIT: removed table. Formatting was awful.

 

[rick1zoo2]

Over on the team rundis website there is a section with historical runner totals for each race weekend:

https://teamrundis.com/rundisney-runner-totals


Goofy challenge is the smallest population and the numbers have been consistent for the last few years. They do not have 5k numbers:

 

[rick1zoo2]

Another observation about the historical numbers is I can see why the 5k would typically sell out fast - if we assume the 5k race (until the new expanded format) has the smallest runner total (less than the 10K) and the Dopey Challenge accounts for 8,000 - 8,200 of the 5k runners, then it doesn't leave a large number of individual 5k bibs for sale. This also explains to me why the 5k isn't included in the challenges for the other race weekends - to allow for them all to be on sale as an individual race.

 

[Mr_Incr3dible]

Nice work @FlyingDonut and @rick1zoo2 . [nods at graphs]

Looks like the 8:1 ratio of Dopey to Goofy has been in place for a while and I was oblivious to it until recently, incorrectly assuming the Dopey was the more exclusive challenge.

All I can figure is that 2022 was when my car broke down and I showed up 15 minutes before the Expo closed, and in (literally) running around the bib building, I saw only the one remaining manned Dopey booth, fixated on that booth, and wasn't really seeing the empty ones I was running past. (I had run around the bottom floor, saw the seemingly endless rows of booths for the other races, couldn't find Dopey, and was told Dopey booths were back upstairs. I was rather winded by the time I got to the booth).

Thanks for helping me suss this out. Good to know I'm not losing my mind, at least on this....