Help me decide, what does the math say...

[HundredAcreWoodNurae]

Hey everyone thanks so much for reading. With the direct deals as they are right now, I've decided to go all in and buy direct points. My only hold up is deciding on the amount of points. My ultimate goal is to have 500 total. I used to think I'd do a mix of resale and direct but I've come to find out that not having the benefit of using all the points at the new resorts bothers me and just feel maybe getting all direct is how I should go (I know, exactly what Disney wants). I'm planning on keeping these to expiration so a lot can happen in that time with new resorts, benefits, etc.

I don't necessarily need all 500 today, but does the math suggest that maybe now is the time to do it with the VGF deals? I for sure want 300 and would split them 150/150, but then I was looking at possibly getting 450 and going 150/150/150 (and pass on to my 3 kids.) But when I was looking at the sheet with the pricing on it from my guide, the math was suggesting that it would only be a little over $3000 more to go to 500 points. Is that correct? Seems crazy to get 50 more points for that little. My brain is fried as I just had twins and am also chasing around a two year old so maybe my math and thinking is really off.

So what's the best deal? 300? 450? 500?

 

[Sandisw]

Historically, deals don’t get better so if 500 points is what you want to be at and feel you can afford it now, I’d do that!

But, if you want the opportunity to potential own more than one home resort, then I’d go with just the 300 to start if it will get you through the next few years, when the FW cabin and Poly tower is for sale!

 

[HundredAcreWoodNurae]

Historically, deals don’t get better so if 500 points is what you want to be at and feel you can afford it now, I’d do that!

But, if you want the opportunity to potential own more than one home resort, then I’d go with just the 300 to start if it will get you through the next few years, when the FW cabin and Poly tower is for sale!

Thank you for your insight! That is what I'm thinking, maybe I just get the 300 now and wait to see what else comes out/see how I feel about Poly and FW

 

[Genie+]

Yeah with that many points I was thinking about 2 home resorts too. And if you don’t need all those points in the near future anyway, you’ll save a couple years of dues and potentially end up with a longer expiration date for resort #2.

 

[intamin]

Historically, deals don’t get better so if 500 points is what you want to be at and feel you can afford it now, I’d do that!

But, if you want the opportunity to potential own more than one home resort, then I’d go with just the 300 to start if it will get you through the next few years, when the FW cabin and Poly tower is for sale!

Personally I'd do a 150/150 at one resort or split between RIV/VGF if you're set on direct only. VGF is a pretty amazing deal right now. I just put in 450 vs 500 points in the add on tool and the math is correct, an additional 3000 dollars to go from 450 to 500 because the incentive goes from 8,340 in savings to 16,180 respectively so if you were going to purchase 450 points you may as well go for the 500. But like I said in the beginning I personally would diversify as I wouldn't want ALL of my points at one resort unless you really love a certain resort or hate split stays. The couple of dollars in savings per point isn't worth it IMO but to each their own, some people have 1000 points at a resort and are completely content. Buying 300 points would also allow you to maybe add on a new resort down the line to get you closer to your goal of 500. Maybe the cabins at FW or polynesian tower?

 

[AstroBlasters]

So the additional 50 points are $60pp?

 

[intamin]

So the additional 50 points are $60pp?

Essentially yes. The price at least for current members goes from 90890 to 93,900, was too lazy to check for new members.

Edit: 90824->93971. 62.94pp

 

[AstroBlasters]

Essentially yes. The price at least for current members goes from 90890 to 93,900.

2 questions:

1) How many points does OP need for target annual vacation?

2) What’s the delta between 300 points and 500 points?

3) Financing or paying cash/0% interest?

 

[intamin]

2 questions:

1) How many points does OP need for target annual vacation?

2) What’s the delta between 300 points and 500 points?

3) Financing or paying cash/0% interest?

1. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
2. 300 is 57858, delta is 36113
3. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ , I would hope just straight up cash. If not cash then should definitely go for the lower amount.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

The oddball way that Disney has structured this promo makes 450 quite inefficient. It’s almost $10/point more than buying 300 points.

If 450 is a magic number you can buy 150 resale and if you decide to stay at Riviera or VDH or whatever just bank your resale points and borrow your unrestricted ones that year.

If it’s more about having even contracts to give to your kids and you want them all to be direct/ the same (are you sure they’ll want them? Many people don’t like inheriting an Annual dues and vacation commitment), they’ll definitely let you buy 3 167 point contracts. They’re trained to pitch round numbers but they’ll gladly sell whatever.

 

[Disney_escape]

With the crazy deals right now, and the magical beginnings here is a thought. Since 500 points is at such a low average price per point. Buy 5 x100 points contracts, then use magical beginnings on half to bring cost down more. Then you have 3 contracts to split for your 3 children and 2 easy to sell contracts if you fall in love with Poly2 or some other future property.
The selling of GF will recoup closer to your price on the selling contracts than a RIV will, most likely.

 

[AstroBlasters]

With the crazy deals right now, and the magical beginnings here is a thought. Since 500 points is at such a low average price per point. Buy 5 x100 points contracts, then use magical beginnings on half to bring cost down more. Then you have 3 contracts to split for your 3 children and 2 easy to sell contracts if you fall in love with Poly2 or some other future property.
The selling of GF will recoup closer to your price on the selling contracts than a RIV will, most likely.

This is where my thoughts were going as well.

My guess is that OP is trying to get 150 for each child to ensure they all have membership magic in the future. But from a flexibility perspective I like the 100x 3 or 100x5 approach.

 

[Disney_escape]

This is where my thoughts were going as well.

My guess is that OP is trying to get 150 for each child to ensure they all have membership magic in the future. But from a flexibility perspective I like the 100x 3 or 100x5 approach.

Good point, I forgot about the passing of the Blue card.

 

[PolyRob]

With the crazy deals right now, and the magical beginnings here is a thought. Since 500 points is at such a low average price per point. Buy 5 x100 points contracts, then use magical beginnings on half to bring cost down more. Then you have 3 contracts to split for your 3 children and 2 easy to sell contracts if you fall in love with Poly2 or some other future property.
The selling of GF will recoup closer to your price on the selling contracts than a RIV will, most likely.

Magical Beginnings is also all or none

 

[Disney_escape]

Magical Beginnings is also all or none

I thought you could do it per contract?

 

[PolyRob]

I thought you could do it per contract?

My guide told me if I went from the initial 150 I was considering (75/75) to 200 (75/75/50) it would be "all or none" with Magical Beginnings. Fine by me since I want the lowest price.

I also have a friend that purchased 300 DLH points (150/150). She wanted to keep 150 and was told no.

 

[achinforsomebacon]

I thought you could do it per contract?

I think if you were to purchase the contract independently, you could pick and choose. For example, if you bought 2 200 point contracts at the 200 point incentives for each, you could do MB for one. If you bought 400 points at the 400 point incentives, you would have to do all or nothing for MB.

 

[achinforsomebacon]

We just went through a similar process. We wanted 400 points, which is in the dead zone of incentives (150-300 and 500-550 are good, 400-450 are bad). One thing to keep in mind is due to how the incentives are, you're better off considering separate 300 point (split into 2 150s) and 150 point contracts vs one 450 pointer split into 3 150s. Before Magical Beginnings and the Welcome Home credit, existing member pricing at 150 is $28,965 (193.1/pt) and 300 is $56,760 (189.2/pt) for a total of $85,725 (190.5/ pt). 450 is $89,310 (198.5/pt) so you'd save $3,585 by doing a split 300 and 150 vs 450. Don't be surprised if your guide is confused by this and you have to walk them through it. It's definitely not intuitive and differs from the past incentives where price per point decreased as points increased. Another benefit of this approach is you should be able to do Magical Beginnings on only one of the contracts whereas I think splitting the 450 would require all or nothing on MB.

The problem still exists that the incremental jump from 150+300 to 500 isn't too bad...$6,595 (131.9/pt) and is very tempting. Don't ask how I know.

 

[HundredAcreWoodNurae]

I would be selling two resales to pay for the 300 points. Jumping to 500 it would be a mix of selling the resale, cash and 0% for the 6 months on Disney Visa.

I've been speaking to my guide and even looking at the spreadsheet it looks like the math is better ($330) to be 2 x 150 contracts and not just a straight 300 points. She thought that was weird and said she'd make sure it didn't come out to the higher price. That's when I really started looking at what is the best option. I'm out for the 400-450 since it seems like that amount of points isn't the best on these deals. Leaning towards 300 since it just seems simpler at this time, although the fact that I hate split stays makes me wanna go all in at one resort to make it easier. I think for the next couple years though with the type of trips we want to take, 300 would work.

In regards to passing it on to my kids - as someone mentioned I really don't know if they'll want it. Heck I may still be traveling and not interested in giving it up. I just thought 150 point contracts were easier for the whole benefits but really who knows what the future holds and if it's even something my kiddos would want.

 

[Genie+]

Leaning towards 300 since it just seems simpler at this time, although the fact that I hate split stays makes me wanna go all in at one resort to make it easier.

Keeping all 300pts at one resort helps simplify things. You could also do 150/150 and alternate using them so each year you have 300pts at one or the other.