Help deciding for home resort

[Michal Holm]

Hi

I need a little help deciding which my home resort should be.

We are a family of 5, kids aged 4,10,11. We are from Europe. We normally travel during school holidays, which are almost the same as in the US.

We would go to the US every other year with the kids, and stay for approx 14 days. We are also owners at HGVC so we would use those points for most of the stay. The DVC contract should cover 3-4 days in a 2 BR. I know we could all fit in a 1BR but the family and I like to have enough space to wrigle our ears

My initially thought was to buy a contract with 100-125 points. This way I could bank and borrow from the years. Currently the kids would like to stay at AKV because of the animals, but that might change in the future. At AKV I would need a contract with 100 points to book a 2BR SV every other year. I know that the points required each year might change, thats also why 100 points are a minimum.

If we for some reason shouldn't be able to go every other year, my thought was to rent out the points. This is where things get a bit difficult to decide where to buy. I could opt for SSR for the lowest MF, but I frankly rather buy at a resort which is "hard" to get into and maybe pay a small premium with the buyin costs. On the other hand a lot of the DVC resorts are expiring at 2042 and in my book thats pretty soon when you pay so much money. I have therefore looked at Aulani and AKV, the MF is higher at Aulani compared to AKV, but again on a yearly basic its not much. From what I have read getting into a 2BR SV at AKV is not that difficult at the 7 month mark? is it more difficult to get into Aulani at the 7 month mark?

If I selected Aulani as home resort I would not be using it for the first 4-6 years, but I would go to HI at some point and then we would stay at Aulani.

For UY I would go for either April or June, since most of the travelling would be in July or August.

What resort would you guys recommend and why ?

Regards

 

[_auroraborealis_]

1. I would not recommend you buy Aulani. You will never get an 11-month booking priority for a Walt Disney World resort with Aulani points, and depending on your dates, that would leave you having paid premium rates to stay mostly at Saratoga or Old Key West. While both are lovely resorts, I don't think you should pay for premium points to mostly stay at either. If you are going to buy based on a 7-month window, buy a resort with a lower cost of ownership -- BLT for premium points with high rental value, or Saratoga.

2. Buy where you would most frequently want to stay. Even traveling July-August, 11-month booking matters.

3. AKV should mostly be available at 7 months in July-August. To be honest, the main 2BRs you might have issues with for that time period would be Beach Club, and the usual suspects at Animal Kingdom Villas (the Club Level and Value 2BRs).

Based on your requirements, I would look chiefly at BLT or Saratoga.

 

[supersnoop]

I agree with the above. BLT and SSR are the best values because of the low dues and longer expiration. AKV is easy to book at 7 months. BLT rents at a premium.

 

[Michal Holm]

Thanks for Your replies.

I was under the impression that most Disney world resorts had availability at the 7 month mark?. I don't care about the value rooms, I would just need a 2br with a decent view.

I just looked at the resale prices for BLT they are too expensive for me.

if I should look at any of the other resorts which one might suit me better? The RTU until 2042 worries me a bit, because at some point the resale value will fall the question is only when? Maybe I don't need to worrie

Regards

 

[_auroraborealis_]

If BLT is too expensive, I am surprised you were looking at Aulani. Aulani is $165/point!

Accounting for annual dues, BLT will have a lower cost of ownership across life of contract than AKV. Stealing directly from http://www.disboards.com/threads/blt-or-akv-resale.3501816/:

The difference between $6.41 and $5.28 per point is actually quite a lot over the life of the contract.

If you make the following assumptions:
1. 4% increase in annual dues per year over the life of the contract
2. shorten BLT by 3 years (to end at 2057) to match AKL
3. 200 point contract, BLT @ $123 pp and AKL @ $85 pp
4. closing costs: BLT = $610 and AKL = $560
5. 2016 MF: BLT = $5.28 pp, AKL = $6.41 pp

Cost of the contract over it's entire life is:
BLT = $135,692
AKL = $151,948

AKL actually costs $16,000 more than BLT.

If you assume annual dues stay flat (0% increase)
BLT = $69,587.20
AKL= $71,404.00

AKL still $2000 more than BLT.

BLT actually has 3 more years built in, which actually makes it slightly more attractive than the numbers state.

AKL's advantage is that you don't need as many points to rent a room, so you could probably get away with a much smaller contract at AKL than BLT and see significant savings from that standpoint. But point for point, BLT is a great deal.

 

[PagingMr.Morrow]

I agree with auroraborealis, I wouldn't get caught up on the initial cost per point although the lower the better. The majority of the cost will come from maintenance fees. Basically for 100 points, you will have to pay 113 dollars more per year for AKV ($641) than BLT (528) and as you can imagine that adds up significantly over the life of the contract. I believe BLT is a much better deal than AKV due to the MFs and if you ever want to rent your points, BLT commands a higher value because it is a premium resort. Also BLT has 3 more years so that also helps.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Brokers will pay more for BLT points, especially if you are willing to book 11-7 months, than for AKV or Saratoga.

 

[Michal Holm]

Aulani is not 165$ Per point at least not where I have been looking. It's more between 98-130$


I'm at a loss, bc on one hand it would be exciting to stay onsite for a couple of days eoy but with the significant buyin cost I don't know so much.

On the other hand I could also just pickup the cheapest resale I can find at SSR, and then "hope" I will be able to book 7months out. I just hate the word hope in that sentence. With all the new resorts being sold, people wanna try all resort and this will cause the availability to be low pretty quickly.

I haven't stayed at any of the other resort only AKV, I don't know if I would even like them if I should start to look at any of the other ones like BCV or BWV.

Regards.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Aulani is not 165$ Per point at least not where I have been looking. It's more between 98-130$

Those $98/pp contracts scream ROFR. Aulani is still being sold direct. Similar numbers to AKV vs. BLT would still apply, since Aulani has high dues per point unless you're also looking at subsidized dues contracts. Aulani's dues are actually higher than AKV's, so all of the math still applies.

 

[PagingMr.Morrow]

I just checked the inventory (on multiple sites) on resale for both AKV and BLT @ 100 points. The lowest AKV was $92 pp while BLT tower was $115 pp. A side note is Aulani was $98 pp. I would definitely chose a resort on Disney Grounds however if that is where you plan on spending most of your points at. When comparing AKV and BLT strictly on cost and investment, BLT wins in my opinion even though the initial cpp is higher. Before buying, you might want to consider renting and staying at a few other dvc resorts first since you have only been to AKV since this is a big financial decision.

Since you are worrying about availability at the 7 month mark, I attached a link to a thread that helps break that down by resort.

http://www.disboards.com/threads/an...vailability-for-days-7-11-months-out.3281173/

 

[supersnoop]

I was under the impression that most Disney world resorts had availability at the 7 month mark?

"Availability" and "the room I want to book" are two very different things. One-bedrooms will be available almost everywhere all year long at 7 months. Studios near Epcot will be gone long before 7 months during the Food & Wine festival.
Here's some good data on the topic: http://disboards.com/threads/predic...-some-1-bedrooms-vgc-update-10-21-15.3419112/

if I should look at any of the other resorts which one might suit me better?

Over the long term, and based on my calculations, BLT is the second least expensive. Only SSR is cheaper. The up-front cost is only part of the expense. The dues are just as important.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

At $98/point for Aulani vs. $115/point for BLT, the numbers for that comparison above that were AKV vs. BLT remain directionally true, only Aulani will have an even greater gap for Total Cost of Ownership (and not in its favor). The buy-in is less favorable than the AKV example in that math on one side, more favorable for BLT, and you add in the higher dues of Aulani.

DVC really is a long-term thing, and just looking at buy-in is a single piece of the long-term expense. Dues are another part, as are issues of renting points if you can't use them, and commitment to specific Disney vacations over time (and the expenses thereof).

 

[suebeelin]

You should be able to get akv at the 7mo mark during the summer. If you're ok with that, go with SSR.

We bought bwv and BLT bc we have little kids and place a premium on walking to the parks. We did not like akv bc of its lack of proximity to the parks. Figure out your priorities, be it theming, room size, proximity to parks, pools, etc...

 

[jerseyduke]

When you buy, part of the cost is dictated by the importance of the 11 month home resort advantage. Are you going to use that? If not, you would be paying a premium for an option you would not use - That screams buy SSR.

If you plan on using the 11 month window, then buy where you want to stay. I would not buy a place that is "harder to get" without the intent of wanting to get it.

SSR and BLT are the best values, but BLT is only worth it if you want to stay at BLT (and book at 7+ months); in which case, buy there.

 

[disneynutz]

Thanks for Your replies.

I was under the impression that most Disney world resorts had availability at the 7 month mark?. I don't care about the value rooms, I would just need a 2br with a decent view.

I just looked at the resale prices for BLT they are too expensive for me.

if I should look at any of the other resorts which one might suit me better? The RTU until 2042 worries me a bit, because at some point the resale value will fall the question is only when? Maybe I don't need to worrie

Regards

Your cost for DVC is just the tip of the iceberg. Owning DVC tends to lock you into expensive Disney vacations. I did a recent study on owning 50 year contract and vacationing at WDW each year. When you add food, airfare, admission, dues, extras and the cost of the contract, the total was over $200,000 dollars.

Bill

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

I think that the most important thing is that you are happy with your purchase, and to me, that means buying someplace that where you like staying. Saving $10 per point but ending up stuck with a resort you don't like is not worth it IMO. If you love AKL more than any other resort, just buy AKL and be done with it. Don't worry about renting points out. If there are a couple different resorts that you like, then I would take cost more into consideration. Renting points out should be a tiebreaker rather than a primary decision point in my opinion.

My recommendation would be to sit down and research all the resorts and come up with a list of which ones you like. I personally wouldn't buy Aulani unless you are going to go there frequently, it's better to have a Disney World resort if you are going to be doing most of your vacations there. So, I would just look at the Disney World resorts. You can make a rank list, or put them into tiers, or however you want.

Once you come up with a list of resorts that you like, break each one of the contenders down by cost (we can help you with that if you like).

That's how we did it, although we haven't yet taken our first trip, I feel pretty comfortable with our decision. We looked at all the resorts and determined that we ideally wanted someplace that was convenient to the parks. To us, that meant the monorail resorts (not everyone will agree with that though). This is how our thought process went:

Contenders:
1. BLT or VGF - monorail resorts close to MK. We were fine with both themes.
2. AKL - not near any parks, but we really like the theme. Doesn't share buses with other resorts which is a plus.
3. VWL - this was borderline for us. Sort of close to MK, but no monorail. Theme for us was fine, but like AKL theme better.

Out of contention:
4. BCV and BWV - my wife didn't like the theme all the much, and we would rather be close to MK than Epcot
5. Poly - monorail resort, but no 1-BR or 2-BR suits
6. OKW and SSR - too far away from everything, theme not enough for us to overcome that downside

After we came up with the list above, I figured looked at the buy-in price as well as the projected price over the lifetime of the contract as @_auroraborealis_ mentioned, we used a spreadsheet for that.

Between BLT and VGF, we didn't feel that VGF was worth the price difference over BLT.
Between BLT and AKL, although AKL was lower buy-in, the long term price of AKL was about the same or higher than BLT. We decided we valued the proximity of BLT to MK over the theme of AKL, and because cost wasn't really an issue, we chose BLT over AKL.
Between BLT and VWL, again we preferred the location of BLT over VWL, and long term cost of VWL I believe is a bit higher than BLT.

So, now we are the happy owners of a 200 point contract at BLT, with a trip booked for January 2017.

Hope that helps!

tl;dr, in case you don't feel like reading my manifesto: Come up with a rank list of the resorts that you like and which are definitely out, and we'll help you choose between them.