Has Disney miscalculated the economic recovery

You may be onto something. Disney is pricing out many families and with the recent news that ME ridership is down and expansion of free dining dates in December, you may be have hit the nail on the head. I don't know about anyone else but we have never paid more for our airfare or our resort for our upcoming trip.
 
or have they simply decided that the long-term strategic goal of weaning the public off discounts overrides the tactical objective of keeping their resorts relatively full?

Some observations:

Up through Q1 of 2012, it appeared as if the economy was slowly on the road to recovery. Disney has seemed to rely on this as an opportunity to wean the public off of discounts.

However, since then it has become increasingly apparent that the to so-called recovery is stagnating. GDP growth over the last couple quarters has dropped substantially and unemployment has seemed to hit a wall (with the increased possiblity of a double dip recession).

Nevertheless, Disney seems intent on cutting discounts. While free dining has still been offered, the dates have been much more limited than in the previous couple of years.

Room discounts, in particular, have been cut rather dramatically. These discounts are particluarly relevant to deluxe resort bookings, which has led me to wonder whether the stall in the recovery has not affected the higher-end consumer as much as the rest of the population (or, at least, Disney sees it this way).

But then I hear reports that an entire longhouse at the Poly is closed in the middle of the summer, not for renovations but because bookings in the resort have been insufficient.

Putting all of this together, I'm having a hard time believing that Disney is hitting their usual capacity goals at their higher end (and perhaps even some of their moderate) resorts. This leads me back to my original question.

In any event, it will be interesting to see what kind of room discounts are offered for the remainder of this year and into 2013.

Disney seems ok to me. I tried to upgrade to an Epcot resort, standard room, for October and all that is left is Club Level or Suites.... seems like they are doing just fine. I also had to take a preferred room in my Mod resort because all the standard rooms were booked.
 

Disney seems ok to me. I tried to upgrade to an Epcot resort, standard room, for October and all that is left is Club Level or Suites.... seems like they are doing just fine. I also had to take a preferred room in my Mod resort because all the standard rooms were booked.
Resorts aren't a faultless way of judging how Disney is actually doing. They fill those rooms with a LOT of other traffic, apart from park-goers. They have conventions and events all throughout the year and those fill up rooms, but don't necessarily drive up sales as far as the parks go.
 
Resorts aren't a faultless way of judging how Disney is actually doing. They fill those rooms with a LOT of other traffic, apart from park-goers. They have conventions and events all throughout the year and those fill up rooms, but don't necessarily drive up sales as far as the parks go.

seems to me they are still making $$$$$. Rooms or parks $ is $...
 
I doubt Disney has miscalculated anything.

A couple of weeks ago I looked out at the throngs of people either on Main Street or waiting for Fantasmic to start (with a full stadium close to an hour before showtime) and thought: Disney is averaging pulling in around $50 per person per day (that's my guess...I don't know what it really is) and that's just for park admission. Add food, souvenirs, parking, etc., etc. and the numbers have got to be staggering.

If they did make a gross miscalculation somewhere, they have the ability to do last minute discounting. I just don't see it; demand is still very strong.

I don't think looking at a busy crowd on a summer day can tell you anything about what WDW is doing business-wise. Of course the park is gonna look crowded in July!

I actually think the fact they opened up FD to AoA is more telling. They didn't expect folks to move out of their brand new digs for FD, and were surprised when it happened.

I do think they anticipated a better financial recovery. The discounts were down dramatically this year, especially on Deluxes, and I think they are in the process of rethinking it.
 
Disney seems ok to me. I tried to upgrade to an Epcot resort, standard room, for October and all that is left is Club Level or Suites.... seems like they are doing just fine. I also had to take a preferred room in my Mod resort because all the standard rooms were booked.

Let's face it, Mid to late October used to be a time to get deals, but they really hit a home run with the F&W festival.
 
I was shocked to see Disney extend the FD offer to Dec 20th this morning. I did a quick look at the calendar and anyone going Christmas week could really take advantage. Most of the schools have a half day on the 21st. If you checked in Thurs night 12/20 you could certainly take advantage of FD for the entire Christmas holiday week. You would only have to pull your child out of school for a half day on 12/21.

I am thinking that reservations must be down Christmas week for Disney to do this. I just booked a trip arriving Nov 1 for 10 days. We moved our trip up 2 days to take advantage of FD. It was very tempting to cancel the Nov trip and change it to end of Dec.
 
You may be onto something. Disney is pricing out many families and with the recent news that ME ridership is down and expansion of free dining dates in December, you may be have hit the nail on the head. I don't know about anyone else but we have never paid more for our airfare or our resort for our upcoming trip.

I thought the price of airfare might have something to do with why ME ridership is down. More people are driving. We have our trip all booked except for air. At three months out I am hoping that it will start dropping - it seems there are a lot of unfilled seats on many flights.
 
I was shocked to see Disney extend the FD offer to Dec 20th this morning. I did a quick look at the calendar and anyone going Christmas week could really take advantage. Most of the schools have a half day on the 21st. If you checked in Thurs night 12/20 you could certainly take advantage of FD for the entire Christmas holiday week. You would only have to pull your child out of school for a half day on 12/21.

I am thinking that reservations must be down Christmas week for Disney to do this. I just booked a trip arriving Nov 1 for 10 days. We moved our trip up 2 days to take advantage of FD. It was very tempting to cancel the Nov trip and change it to end of Dec.


I wasn't shocked since the year long PIN included the 20th so when it wasn't included thought they didn't have rooms to fill but gotta tell ya readies are still available and pretty much all cat of rooms are available for booking (even POP and AOA). With part of fantasyland opening the bookings must be way down.
 
This past Easter we stayed at POR when we usually stay at BC but there was no way I was paying 600/night. POR was a ghost town. We also got upgraded which was also a first for us. There was availability everywhere onsite up to the day we left. I also tried to book Bonnet creek and the Hilton and they were completely booked.

IMHO people are moving offsite. The DDP was an attraction but now it's a wash in saving money unless you really work at it. Onsite transportation use to also be a draw but this was are 20th trip and we were so fed up with the buses I gave up and rented a car from the S/D/ halfway thru our trip.

Theme park attendance was up 29% at UO and 0% for WDW in 2011.
 
Resorts aren't a faultless way of judging how Disney is actually doing. They fill those rooms with a LOT of other traffic, apart from park-goers. They have conventions and events all throughout the year and those fill up rooms, but don't necessarily drive up sales as far as the parks go.

There are some huge conventions at WDW in October. I moved my vacation from the end of October to the end of September because of this. There is lots of availability in Sept. I have never had a problem with availability on any of our trips. I book with an interline or Ap discount, and have had no problems even last minute.
 
I have noticed a huge drop in the discounts offered in 2012 compared to the past few years. I am not sure what is fueling this. Disney has more and more rooms to fill, considering they are adding a DVC at GF and Poly. Their expansion in FL is also an expensive undertaking. Maybe they are just trying to recoup their expenses and seeing how far they can push the public before they start loosing money.

We are planning a trip for the first week of Jan 2013 and I am nervous about the discounts being offered. We may have to downgrade our resort and shorten our stay if they can not come up with something. Notice, I did not say cancel our trip, and this is what Disney is counting on.
 
I have noticed a huge drop in the discounts offered in 2012 compared to the past few years. I am not sure what is fueling this.

Because they stated a few years ago that they were going to start cutting back on the discounts to try and wean visitors from expecting them. And that's basically what they have done.

Resort revenues and park revenues were up last year per the annual report (as I mentioned up thread somewhere, I did pull some data from the annual report on a thread a few weeks ago, but I'm too lazy to go find it now or look it up again).

EDITED: Ok, so I was curious as to what I did actually post before, so I went and found it - this is just quoted from a different thread, so it's possible some of my comments may not apply here, but the #s are the #s.

Excerpts from Disney's 2011 annual report (because I would rather have facts than guesses) - feel free to read it in more detail yourself.

"The increase in EPS for fiscal 2011 reflected higher operating results driven by ... increased guest spending and volumes at our domestic parks and resorts,.... These increases were partially offset by higher costs at ESPN and at our domestic parks and resorts...."

Parks & resorts had a 10% increase in revenue from 2010 to 2011, and operating income up 18%. 9% increase in operating expenses.

Attendance at domestic parks was only up 1%, but per capita park spending was up 8%. Per room guest spending (so spending @ the resorts, not parks) went up from $224 to $241.

"Revenue growth of 11% at our domestic operations reflected a 6% increase driven by higher average guest spending and a 3% increase due to volume driven by higher passenger cruise ship days due to the launch of our new cruise ship, the Disney Dream, in January 2011, and higher attendance. Higher guest spending was primarily due to higher average ticket prices, daily hotel room rates, and food, beverage, and merchandise spending."

So it's not true that people are still going, but spending less.
 














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