Guesses on where April incentives will land?

[Cfabar1]

Wondering what the direct incentives will be starting in April. I’m hoping they are better than the current incentives. A few reasons why I’m hopeful:

- The recently announced direct “sold out” sales seem pretty good.
- The January-March sales are pretty meh…. Makes me think they might get a little more promotional.

Am I totally off base?

 

[Sandisw]

We don’t have any sales data yet for January to March so it will really depend on how those come out.

December was okay but it is an interesting move to get BLT and Poly lower.

They never do what you think though. But if I had to guess, things will be similar but with the potential that they choose other sold out resorts to reduce.

 

[DVChris]

Next set of incentives might include the new Tower at Disneyland. The suspense!

 

[sleepymouse]

Next set of incentives might include the new Tower at Disneyland. The suspense!

I sure hope they do.

 

[hglenn]

Do

Next set of incentives might include the new Tower at Disneyland. The suspense!

You think the initial point sale for VDH will be for current members only like they did with VGF2?

 

[Sandisw]

Do

You think the initial point sale for VDH will be for current members only like they did with VGF2?

They have always done that so I would expect that to happen with VDH as well!!

 

[RoseGold]

Resale is cratering, but direct will keep going up to prepare for DL and Poly2. If they're going to drop prices, it will be with incentives and sales.

 

[CarolynFH]

Do

You think the initial point sale for VDH will be for current members only like they did with VGF2?

As Sandi says, yes - and the prices for current members are usually better, too.

 

[NVDISFamily]

I’d expect CCV to be added to the mix of a discount on a closed resort.

 

[theplanets14]

I’d expect CCV to be added to the mix of a discount on a closed resort.

CCV is such a small resort though. Already rough availability for studios at even 11 months out.

They need to incentivize the Cabins somehow.

CCV was at the top of my list until I saw the availability and inventory. Now it's close to the bottom.

 

[Rochester Disney Fan]

I'm waiting for the incentives when they have 4-5 active resorts to sell . ( Aulani, VDH, RRV ,Poly 2, possibly still have GF).

 

[hglenn]

So, if DVC is sitting on a bunch of unsold points, they can rent those points out for cash, right? So if cash rental remains high, incentives may not be as prevalent? Is that how it works?

 

[Sandisw]

So, if DVC is sitting on a bunch of unsold points, they can rent those points out for cash, right? So if cash rental remains high, incentives may not be as prevalent? Is that how it works?

Yes, the points they own can be used for cash stays. But, typically those would be ones maybe at sold out resorts, because they wouldn’t want to use points at active resorts to make sales.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes, the points they own can be used for cash stays. But, typically those would be ones maybe at sold out resorts, because they wouldn’t want to use points at active resorts to make sales.

I’m sure they look at total direct inventory and projected sales rates and make a decision on what to use for cash rentals vs keep available for sales.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

So, if DVC is sitting on a bunch of unsold points, they can rent those points out for cash, right? So if cash rental remains high, incentives may not be as prevalent? Is that how it works?

Yes. This is why Im of the opinion they had such high ROFR activity over the summer. They needed to meet the demands of consumers for resorts stays.

 

[tjkraz]

Disney hotels rarely operate at 100% occupancy...even less so without any form of discounting or promotions. It really doesn't make sense for them to use ROFR as a way to boost hotel inventory. As long as you've got some rooms sitting empty, why spend thousands to acquire more? There aren't a lot of people out there thinking "I really want to visit Walt Disney World but if you can't give me a deluxe studio at Bay Lake Tower, forget it."

If DVC ROFRs a 200-point contract, they're going to pay $20-30k in real money to the seller. In return, they only get 200 points worth of rooms per year, just like a member using those same points. And if members have already taken all of the desirable inventory 10-11 months into the future, they may not even be able to grab meaningful rooms for CRO until nearly a year down the road.

This is also sort of the antithesis of fretting about supposed high DVC prices and low sales. DVC has 2-3 million unsold points in Grand Floridian and Riviera. I don't see why they would aggressively ROFR other resorts for room inventory purposes while worrying about supposed "slow" sales at two resorts where they are holding points.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Disney hotels rarely operate at 100% occupancy...even less so without any form of discounting or promotions. It really doesn't make sense for them to use ROFR as a way to boost hotel inventory. As long as you've got some rooms sitting empty, why spend thousands to acquire more? There aren't a lot of people out there thinking "I really want to visit Walt Disney World but if you can't give me a deluxe studio at Bay Lake Tower, forget it."

If DVC ROFRs a 200-point contract, they're going to pay $20-30k in real money to the seller. In return, they only get 200 points worth of rooms per year, just like a member using those same points. And if members have already taken all of the desirable inventory 10-11 months into the future, they may not even be able to grab meaningful rooms for CRO until nearly a year down the road.

This is also sort of the antithesis of fretting about supposed high DVC prices and low sales. DVC has 2-3 million unsold points in Grand Floridian and Riviera. I don't see why they would aggressively ROFR other resorts for room inventory purposes while worrying about supposed "slow" sales at two resorts where they are holding points.

"rarely" and "never" are very different. Disney can ROFR contracts that are loaded, and use those points to "rent". They do it all the time. It's a fact.

Many people reported all Deluxe resorts were sold out over the summer. ROFR activity picked up in January 2022 and ended at the precise same time as when Deluxe resorts started having availability. And then....voila... new incentives on BLT which was one of the highest bought back resorts. I don't believe it was a coincidence but I also can't prove it wasn't.

 

[tjkraz]

"rarely" and "never" are very different. Disney can ROFR contracts that are loaded, and use those points to "rent". They do it all the time. It's a fact.

Yes, loaded contracts are often targeted and the points can be used to make rooms available to CRO. (Also for other things like one time use points.)

But it's important to consider the timing on those transactions.

Many people reported all Deluxe resorts were sold out over the summer. ROFR activity picked up in January 2022 and ended at the precise same time as when Deluxe resorts started having availability. And then....voila... new incentives on BLT which was one of the highest bought back resorts. I don't believe it was a coincidence but I also can't prove it wasn't.

Throughout 2021 and 2022, DVC averaged ROFR on about 45k points per month. The outliers to that are January and August 2021 when activity dipped to 17k and 9k points respectively. The upswing didn't actually occur until April - August 2022 when ROFR numbers were:

April 68k
May 75k
June 93k
July 70k
August 84k

Interestingly, 35% of those points taken were at SSR, 21% at OKW and 17% at AKV.

By April / May of last year, DVC availability was already very tight for the remainder of the year. I'm not sure that DVC could have turned points ROFRed in April and beyond into meaningful availability in 2022. And although they'll always be a favorite of many DVC owners, the value of cash rooms at the likes of OKW and SSR is dubious.

 

[CarolynFH]

the value of cash rooms at the likes of OKW and SSR is dubious.

That’s true, but they’re popular when they pop up in RCI and II for inbound exchange. I really wish we knew how those agreements work, especially what DVC’s obligations are in terms of what they offer to RCI/II for exchange. People on TUG are seeing May dates at SSR, OKW, AKV and BRV available in II, and there’s no way to know what was matched in an ongoing search and never appeared online. I don’t think we can determine whether Disney is using ROFR points to book the villas they offer for exchange.

 

[JoeyPeligroso]

I’d expect CCV to be added to the mix of a discount on a closed resort.

Would love to see this! Have they made an substantial effort here since it closed active sales?