GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[montreid]

Fortunately, we are still learning a lot from this new virus...and making adjustments for best practices.

Also fortunately, there appears to be less a divide politically at some levels to get a hold of this thing. You'd think a pandemic would bring us together quicker, but alas it's starting to finally happen in some places.

Immunity probably will require yearly if not twice a year immunization. That is the primary reason why a vaccine was never developed for the current four human coronaviruses that keep daycare snots running....kids kept losing immunity. The trouble is that this novel coronavirus is much more deadly, hence the push for the vaccine now...even if redosing twice a year maybe necessary....we hope not. That is what phase 3 trials is going to help us determine.

 

[montreid]

This is another tweet by Dr Eric that needs some attention...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1284970848277991426

Like i mentioned earlier, the staff will exhaust before running out of beds and conversions. JMH is huge along with Miami hospital and old cedars and mothballed building, beds isn't so much an issue. Experienced Personnel is.

 

[anthony2k7]

Like i mentioned earlier, the staff will exhaust before running out of beds and conversions. JMH is huge along with Miami hospital and old cedars and mothballed building, beds isn't so much an issue. Experienced Personnel is.

Yep. Surge planning to bring on stream extra beds is pointless without extra staff/ppe/drugs/oxygen/cpap/ventilators.

 

[KayMichigan]

As a doctor in my area said when he was begging people to follow the guidelines so the hospital staff wouldn't get overwhelmed, exhausted and sick:

"If we die, you die."

 

[sam_gordon]

I never said "our state is better than your state" Sam....didn't say that. We all know that the NY/NJ/CT metro area got slammed. I mean honestly, you're going to blame the largest metro area in the nation for getting hit very early on with a disease that we barely understood?

I sincerely hope every other state does *way* better than we did with respect to cases/hospitalizations/deaths.

I would just like to see a bit more effort on some of the leaders and citizens of those states.

Even if you didn't say it, that's how it read. "Our state has done IT'S job, why can't everyone be like us?" It's posts like that that have been talked about previously... NYers/tri-state folks patting themselves on the back for doing "such a good job". And that's fine. They should be proud of bringing things under control. But it's the snide little comments of "why can't other states do what we do?" Maybe it's because the virus hadn't really hit those states hard?

Now, do you have any idea of what efforts the leaders and citizens of the states you mention have actually done, or did you just read a map showing these states have an increase in cases?

 

[montreid]

The Northeast does deserve a decent 'good job' and taking a very cautious road to reopening and actually following the metrics laid out so many months ago in a slow reopening. Is it annoying Cuomo did a self gratifying stunt last week? yeah, but admittedly, he did his job well enough to get that.

The thing that got the rest of the nation into trouble is that we thought we dodged the bullet and didn't follow our own reopening plan. And when early signs of trouble were showing, we delayed and played politics and tried to wish/explain away the signals that were showing a resurgence (like CA) or initial major surge (FL and TX) or initial hotspots in rural America.

Now most understand the virus doesn't play nice. Metrics lag as this virus lags; so we need to all together act together and with concerted sustained effort to get this under control.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Nope. New York was being seeding from thousands of travelers coming into JFK from Europe for up to two months before the Government enacted the European Travel Ban. The rest of the country got to learn how to treat more effectively and reduce the spread from their misfortune.

Sure other states had more time. But It's not like New York didn't have any time though. It's not like they couldn't see what was happening abroad before it got here just like the rest of the states could too. And that I'm in charge nonsense went on for a week and that delay cost them. That wasn't leadership. That was a power trip. The same type of power trip going on in Georgia right now. So let us not pretend New York was a completely helpless victim of unlucky circumstances. No. Much of it was their own doing.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Sure other states had more time. But It's not like New York didn't have any time though. It's not like they couldn't see what was happening abroad before it got here just like the rest of the states could too. And that I'm in charge nonsense went on for a week and that delay cost them. That wasn't leadership. That was a power trip. The same type of power trip going on in Georgia right now. So let us not pretend New York was a completely helpless victim of unlucky circumstances. No. Much of it was their own doing.

We closed down a week too late. That's not a very long time, but it cost a lot.

 

[kymom99]

We shut down and kept the counts low, but then people acted like we tanked the economy for nothing.

Today our new cases are almost 1000! On a Sunday! Yesterday was 500+. People are going in droves on vacation to hotspots. They are walking around like it’s 2019. Now we have a mask mandate that the AG tried to overturn. I’m afraid of what lies ahead.

 

[robinb]

We closed down a week too late. That's not a very long time, but it cost a lot.

We closed down in time, but our legislature sued the governor at the supreme court level to overturn his "safer at home" order. They won and the Tavern Association immediately sent out a blanket email telling all the bars that they could reopen. We now have a 838 7-day daily average.

 

[bavaria]

Even if you didn't say it, that's how it read. "Our state has done IT'S job, why can't everyone be like us?" It's posts like that that have been talked about previously... NYers/tri-state folks patting themselves on the back for doing "such a good job". And that's fine. They should be proud of bringing things under control. But it's the snide little comments of "why can't other states do what we do?" Maybe it's because the virus hadn't really hit those states hard?

And then add in the people from various countries saying that about the US (and Brazil) So much is where we ended up through accident of birth (or where we chose to ride out the pandemic, or where we ended up riding out the pandemic)

It continues to disappoint me how this has become some sort of competition. If resources and ideas and experiences are shared, we'll all get to a better outcome more quickly. That includes the development and distribution of a vaccine.

 

[bavaria]

I haven't said this yet, but it's nice to "see" you again. I started on the DIS because of a "medical issue" myself.

If you tell me that you have a grandchild now, that will show how long it's been!

 

[godisney14]

Vaccines work because of herd immunity. Without herd immunity vaccines would not protect society.

Each year when I get the flu shot I am not only protecting myself but those who do not get the flu shot. Some of the people who get the flu shot don't even get protected by the shot itself. They end up protected because of herd immunity. That is ultimately how vaccines work.

By the CDC estimate there have been 38,862,780 Americans infected with the coronavirus resulting in 143,226 deaths. Thus far an overall CFR of .36%. That number is right in line with their planning estimates.

Assuming 164,000,000 Americans (roughly 50% of the population) needs to get infected OR be vaccinated to reach herd immunity that means we need another 125,000,000. Even if we assume all 125,000,000 get infected at the current CFR that is another 450,000 deaths. No where near 2.5 million, no where near over 10 million.

The sky is not falling.

The end of the world is not near.

This is a manageable disease.

“Vaccines work because of herd immunity. Without herd immunity vaccines would not protect society.”

That’s seriously making my mind itch. Major.

All throughout school and work, I’ve definitely never heard of vaccines being talked about in that way. I’m honestly trying to figure out what your train of thought is. I’m trying to think about the converse or contrapositive, or an equivalence logic, to your statement and nothing makes sense.

The level for achieving herd immunity is slightly different for various diseases. For this coronavirus, It’s pretty agreed upon that we would need at least 60% infected. Just that threshold alone is 200 million infected. And that CFR you calculated does not include the endpoints for all current active cases. So, it’s an underestimate. Also, when you try for herd immunity, the infrastructure becomes overwhelmed. There will be MUCH more deaths than the (underestimate) 0.36% figure.

But, having said all this, direct protection by vaccine is better than relying on community immunity.

Vaccines are to protect your own body.


No, this is not just a flu. The US had an estimated death total of 24,000 to 62,000 in the ENTIRE ‘19-20 flu season. We are at about only 5 months in WITH a shutdown, and we have almost 140,000 CONFIRMED deaths.

No, this is not manageable the way some states and some groups of population are going about it. DeSantis may disagree with me, but whatever.

 

[kdonnel]

“Vaccines work because of herd immunity. Without herd immunity vaccines would not protect society.”

That’s seriously making my mind itch. Major.

All throughout school and work, I’ve definitely never heard of vaccines being talked about in that way. I’m honestly trying to figure out what your train of thought is. I’m trying to think about the converse or contrapositive, or an equivalence logic, to your statement and nothing makes sense.

The level for achieving herd immunity is slightly different for various diseases. For this coronavirus, It’s pretty agreed upon that we would need at least 60% infected. Just that threshold alone is 200 million infected. And that CFR you calculated does not include the endpoints for all current active cases. So, it’s an underestimate. Also, when you try for herd immunity, the infrastructure becomes overwhelmed. There will be MUCH more deaths than the (underestimate) 0.36% figure.

But, having said all this, direct protection by vaccine is better than relying on community immunity.

Vaccines are to protect your own body.


No, this is not just a flu. The US had an estimated death total of 24,000 to 62,000 in the ENTIRE ‘19-20 flu season. We are at about only 5 months in WITH a shutdown, and we have almost 140,000 CONFIRMED deaths.

No, this is not manageable the way some states and some groups of population are going about it. DeSantis may disagree with me, but whatever.

Vaccines only protect the community because of herd immunity. No vaccine has 100% effectiveness for the one receiving the vaccine. Vaccines work because enough people get the shot and receive immunity to ensure herd immunity. That is why there is a fear that a vaccine for coronavirus will not achieve herd immunity due to not enough people getting the vaccine. We may have to rely heavily on infections In that case.

Vaccines provide for the community health. Herd immunity protects those that can’t be vaccinated because they are too young or can’t be vaccinated for other health reasons or do not receive immunity from the vaccine.

Herd immunity comes from those infected and those vaccinated. There is no reliance on just one or the other.

There is no scientific consensus as to what percentage of the population is needed for herd immunity from coronavirus. Pessimistic scientist set the possible goal higher(80%), optimistic scientists set the goal lower(40%). Both are using science and coming to a conclusion using the same data. Years from now the two sides will find out who was more accurate in their estimation.

The US will not see a death toll of 2.5 - 10 million from coronavirus.

 

[montreid]

Vaccines only protect the community because of herd immunity. No vaccine has 100% effectiveness for the one receiving the vaccine. Vaccines work because enough people get the shot and receive immunity to ensure herd immunity. That is why there is a fear that a vaccine for coronavirus will not achieve herd immunity due to not enough people getting the vaccine. We may have to rely heavily on infections In that case.

Vaccines provide for the community health. Herd immunity protects those that can’t be vaccinated because they are too young or can’t be vaccinated for other health reasons or do not receive immunity from the vaccine.

Herd immunity comes from those infected and those vaccinated. There is no reliance on just one or the other.

There is no scientific consensus as to what percentage of the population is needed for herd immunity from coronavirus. Pessimistic scientist set the possible goal higher(80%), optimistic scientists set the goal lower(40%). Both are using science and coming to a conclusion using the same data. Years from now the two sides will find out who was more accurate in their estimation.

The US will not see a death toll of 2.5 - 10 million from coronavirus.

Herd immunity is a byproduct of mass vaccination. The Primary goal of vaccination is the protection of the primary subject. A secondary benefit is what you see once a certain threshold is reached. For COVID-19 - we do not know what that threshold, if any, is reached.

We cannot say whether 2.5M will be reached. We know 130k+ have lost the battle in 4months with a partial shutdown. If none of our vaccines achieve near term expectations and we continue marching onwards without mitigations, 2.5M isn't out of the question. But I hope and believe we're smarter than that.

 

[hsmamato2]

I never said "our state is better than your state" Sam....didn't say that. We all know that the NY/NJ/CT metro area got slammed. I mean honestly, you're going to blame the largest metro area in the nation for getting hit very early on with a disease that we barely understood?

I sincerely hope every other state does *way* better than we did with respect to cases/hospitalizations/deaths.

I would just like to see a bit more effort on some of the leaders and citizens of those states.

Agreed. I think what I saw over the past 5-6 months,(and it frustrated me no end) was the west coast getting slammed,then the east coast (NE) got slammed, like dominoes...really fast. (Air travel etc no doubt) at the point where we were all in various stages of lockdowns, it "felt" like so many other states were just doing....whatever. Brushing this off, going about their business as usual,insisting it had nothing to do with their states b/c they hadn't see anything up close and personal yet.
I think this is what pp is trying to get across, that we already muddled thru a lockdown,and we're still stuck in this endless cycle b/c other states did NOT take this seriously for months. Some states just started telling their residents to wear masks,or curtailing certain businesses etc. (Or haven't even yet done those things) so as a resident of one of the early hit states,it's frustrating to see it all playing out again and again,when it could (most likely) have been prevented at this scale by a united effort.
This isn't an indictment of people who live in a certain state,as many times we have NO control over our leaders choices,but it's more of a looking back at what is happening and seeing the flaws in our actions.

 

[hsmamato2]

If you tell me that you have a grandchild now, that will show how long it's been!

Bavaria...the author of one of my favorite posts ever...."how to travel in winter" I still use that info (well I did when I was still traveling)

 

[GreatLakes]

The primary goal of vaccination is the protection of the recipient. A positive externality is herd immunity.

 

[Searc]

Herd immunity is a byproduct of mass vaccination. The Primary goal of vaccination is the protection of the primary subject. A secondary benefit is what you see once a certain threshold is reached. For COVID-19 - we do not know what that threshold, if any, is reached.

We cannot say whether 2.5M will be reached. We know 130k+ have lost the battle in 4months with a partial shutdown. If none of our vaccines achieve near term expectations and we continue marching onwards without mitigations, 2.5M isn't out of the question. But I hope and believe we're smarter than that.

Honestly, the way things have been handled from the top and are currently going, we really, really aren't. All you have to do is read posts here and on any social media (or talk to a certain segment of the population) to see the American people are not smarter than that.

 

[Pyotr]

Some good news this morning.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coroanvirus-synairgen-idUSKCN24L0MK
https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620316044.pdf
I’m not into the doom and gloom as some of the other posters are. We will get through this. Things may suck for a while but by next year I’ll be walking down Main Street with a Mickey bar in my hand.