GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[anthony2k7]

12,478 new Florida COVID-19 cases overnight:

20,971 hospital admissions (up about 300)

4,982 deaths (up 87 people)

Deaths still look very difficult to believe on that number of cases per day.

 

[choirfarm]

Deaths still look very difficult to believe on that number of cases per day.

There is a lag from the death and when they are getting reported. Also, not sure how you can find this information, but try to find the number of deaths that day, week whatever. Total. Not Covid deaths, just deaths. Then look at what the average for that time would be. I'm guessing you will find excess deaths, which are probably Covid related.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Florida is 100% lying about COVID related deaths.

 

[handinpocket]

Florida is 100% lying about COVID related deaths.

You have what inside information to know this? Lol, keep on screaming the sky is falling.....

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

You have what inside information to know this? Lol, keep on screaming the sky is falling.....

I believe in science and not politics, thanks.

 

[RamblingMad]

Deaths still look very difficult to believe on that number of cases per day.

They lag by almost up to a month. We're now just seeing deaths rise in AZ. It takes time. And treatment options are much better these days.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

They lag by almost up to a month. We're now just seeing deaths rise in AZ. It takes time. And treatment options are much better these days.

This is not really true. There are some treatments that are better. What's really changes is that the age of people in the hospital has gone from elderly and older adults to young people, who, while they won't die, are very sick and will need a lot of time to recover.

 

[dvcgirl67]

You have what inside information to know this? Lol, keep on screaming the sky is falling.....

I mean, I guess we could do less testing and pretend none of this is happening. That's what our government would like us to do. That's one way to go, but we'd have to ignore an awful lot of other pretty terrible things that are happening. We'd have to ignore the fact that we're about to break our record for daily hospitalizations soon. Not a great record to break. We'd have to ignore the fact that the death rate is rising...again. We're getting up to 1,000 per day, so that's tough to ignore. We'd have to ignore that Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri and Kentucky are looking to be our next "epicenter" of the virus, in a country that is *the* epicenter of the world with respect to pandemic. Is anyone else wondering how many "epicenter" records we'll break? Is your state next? We'd have to ignore the fact that third world countries have done a better job in defeating the virus than we have. Did you know that if you live in Rwanda right now you can travel to Europe. If you live in the United States....not so much. We can ignore the fact that we have absolutely no federal response. None. So, we can be "the sky is falling" crowd, or ostriches with their heads in the sand crowd. I'll keep my head out of the sand so I can see what's coming.

And I have to tell you....it's just not hard. Wear a mask when indoors. Avoid unnecessary travel....etc. Overall, I'm super proud of my state, New Jersey. It's Florida-hot here today. Heat index of 99 degrees. People are outside in my downtown, but all either were wearing masks, or they have them tucked under their chin or in their hand in case they encounter a close up interaction. We did the work and crushed a terrible surge/curve. Most of us did this by simply staying home. It just wasn't that hard to do this. If the states struggling now had stayed home as long as we did....we absolutely would not be going through what we're going through now. Literally another 6 weeks....that's all they had to do. Nope...too hard. And here we are.

But now...it will be hard. Because asking any society or country to lock down beyond 3 months is untenable. So now we're all stuck in the awful in-between of "can't fully open, but can't shut down".....and this is where we'll be until there's a vaccine, because a fair amount of us simply can't, or won't fully participate in the economy. And then we'll have another crisis, because we are so utterly divided, and so much disinformation is out there regarding our public servants who work in public health and government, that many Americans won't trust the vaccine. I absolutely guarantee you that this will happen.

This is what happens when you combine an unthinkably bad government response and a ruthless pandemic with the citizens of the wealthiest country in the world. People who can self-isolate....will. It's the biggest example of utter failure by a government to our homeland since.....I don't even know. Certainly in my lifetime.

 

[Karin1984]

I believe in science and not politics, thanks.

If you believe in science, then you understand that claims need to be backed up ;-)
Not saying you are wrong, but science is based on proving what you say is correct.

What @choirfarm is referring to is a more reliable figure to measure deaths.
Below the figures of the Netherlands, the average death count over the years is between the two grey lines. Everything above the top grey line is excess mortality, everything under the bottom grey line is under-mortality.
The first peak was during an influenza epidemic causing almost 3000 extra deaths than normal over a 15 week period. The second is the Covid peak. We are now back at normal level. What we did see was a decrease in people dying in car accidents (for example) as less people on the roads the past few months.

But the thing is, is it lying, bending the truth or just playing with figures? People who died most likely due to Covid, but weren't tested, as many people in eldery homes etc. can only be added to the count after they do an autopsy. But what if the autopsy reveals the person was infected with Covid, was that then also the cause of death? For people with underlying diseases it might not be THE cause of death, but it did contribute to the death. Is it then still a Covid death?

Each country and in the US probably each state & county has their own definition what a Covid-related death is. There are countries who count everyone above the normal figures as Covid-deaths, just assuming they had it. That's why Belgium has so many more deaths then other comparable EU countries. Is it the right figure, no one knows. And we never will.

 

[anthony2k7]

There is a lag from the death and when they are getting reported. Also, not sure how you can find this information, but try to find the number of deaths that day, week whatever. Total. Not Covid deaths, just deaths. Then look at what the average for that time would be. I'm guessing you will find excess deaths, which are probably Covid related.

Yep I know excess deaths is one of the best measures but I'm not sure if that data is available for Florida?

 

[Christine]

This is not really true. There are some treatments that are better. What's really changes is that the age of people in the hospital has gone from elderly and older adults to young people, who, while they won't die, are very sick and will need a lot of time to recover.

Actually, though, the treatments have improved so it is kinda true.

They now know not to put people on a ventilator until absolutely necessary. This wasn't happening in New York for the first several months. Placing people on their stomachs and trying to assist their breathing in any other way has better outcomes than we first knew.

Dexamethosone (an older and inexpensive corticosteroid) is showing promising results for those needing supplemental oxygen and/or mechanical ventilation. If 100 patients are on a ventilator for 28 days, 60 of those patients are already likely to recover, 28 would die, even with the drug, and 12 will live because of the drug. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53077879 Not a miracle by any means, but it's something. And this wasn't found until June.

Lastly, blood thinners are also given to severely ill COVID patients to stop the microclotting all of the body that the virus causes. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200507194907.htm Again, new treatments that have helped with the death rate.

 

[choirfarm]

Yep I know excess deaths is one of the best measures but I'm not sure if that data is available for Florida?

You have to really dig. I'm on a homeschool board with someone from Florida. And she had a chart. I'm going to make up numbers here, but it is the general idea. On June 7th the deaths would say 20. On June 10 the deaths for the 7th say 30. On June 21st if you look at the 7th the deaths are now 50. She showed us the fine print on it and it said it would take up to 2 weeks to have final numbers for a day.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

If you believe in science, then you understand that claims need to be backed up ;-)
Not saying you are wrong, but science is based on proving what you say is correct.

What @choirfarm is referring to is a more reliable figure to measure deaths.
Below the figures of the Netherlands, the average death count over the years is between the two grey lines. Everything above the top grey line is excess mortality, everything under the bottom grey line is under-mortality.
The first peak was during an influenza epidemic causing almost 3000 extra deaths than normal over a 15 week period. The second is the Covid peak. We are now back at normal level. What we did see was a decrease in people dying in car accidents (for example) as less people on the roads the past few months.

But the thing is, is it lying, bending the truth or just playing with figures? People who died most likely due to Covid, but weren't tested, as many people in eldery homes etc. can only be added to the count after they do an autopsy. But what if the autopsy reveals the person was infected with Covid, was that then also the cause of death? For people with underlying diseases it might not be THE cause of death, but it did contribute to the death. Is it then still a Covid death?

Each country and in the US probably each state & county has their own definition what a Covid-related death is. There are countries who count everyone above the normal figures as Covid-deaths, just assuming they had it. That's why Belgium has so many more deaths then other comparable EU countries. Is it the right figure, no one knows. And we never will.

This is all junk but ok.

 

[kdonnel]

I don't think the multiply by 10 thing works across the board, no. Herd immunity is not a thing with this virus. Please don't spread that.

Yes it is a simple 10x multiplier.

Yes herd immunity is a thing with this virus. We get to herd immunity either through infections, vaccine, or a combination. One thing still up for debate is at what percentage is it effective. Scientist don’t agree at this point and put that number as low as 43% to as high as 80%.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases...th/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

 

[Karin1984]

This is all junk but ok.

The Dutch CDC will be pleased to hear that you think of their reporting as junk.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

This is all junk but ok.

Can I ask your background? You seem full of facts, almost none of which you ever back up, even when asked for some.

You may be completely right, but having been on the receiving end of some of your comments like this, it does nothing to help educate anybody. It just ends up being another of a million opinions on the internet.

 

[godisney14]

They lag by almost up to a month. We're now just seeing deaths rise in AZ. It takes time. And treatment options are much better these days.

Not necessarily that options are better now, but more so that we have a (slightly) better understanding of how to treat certain patients. Still a lot of just hoping and praying. Otherwise, we wouldn't have as many deaths as we continue to have.

Yes it is a simple 10x multiplier.

Yes herd immunity is a thing with this virus. We get to herd immunity either through infections, vaccine, or a combination. One thing still up for debate is at what percentage is it effective. Scientist don’t agree at this point and put that number as low as 43% to as high as 80%.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases...th/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

Just False.

 

[TJA]

If you believe in science, then you understand that claims need to be backed up ;-)
Not saying you are wrong, but science is based on proving what you say is correct.

What @choirfarm is referring to is a more reliable figure to measure deaths.
Below the figures of the Netherlands, the average death count over the years is between the two grey lines. Everything above the top grey line is excess mortality, everything under the bottom grey line is under-mortality.
The first peak was during an influenza epidemic causing almost 3000 extra deaths than normal over a 15 week period. The second is the Covid peak. We are now back at normal level. What we did see was a decrease in people dying in car accidents (for example) as less people on the roads the past few months.

But the thing is, is it lying, bending the truth or just playing with figures? People who died most likely due to Covid, but weren't tested, as many people in eldery homes etc. can only be added to the count after they do an autopsy. But what if the autopsy reveals the person was infected with Covid, was that then also the cause of death? For people with underlying diseases it might not be THE cause of death, but it did contribute to the death. Is it then still a Covid death?

Each country and in the US probably each state & county has their own definition what a Covid-related death is. There are countries who count everyone above the normal figures as Covid-deaths, just assuming they had it. That's why Belgium has so many more deaths then other comparable EU countries. Is it the right figure, no one knows. And we never will.

Awesome info - thanks for posting! This is the exact kind of info that is helpful. I was just sifting through the threads and wanted to take a second to give a big thumbs-up to your post.

 

[sam_gordon]

We'd have to ignore that Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri and Kentucky are looking to be our next "epicenter" of the virus

If the states struggling now had stayed home as long as we did

Here goes that "our state is better than your state" thing again.

Let's look at some stats:
NJ
Total Cases: 182,936
Deaths: 15,776
Cases /mil: 20,596
Deaths/mil: 1,776

KY
Total Cases: 22,184
Deaths: 667
Cases /mil: 4,965
Deaths/mil: 149

Yes, Kentucky has seen a rise in cases over the last week, but I'm still hoping our mask ordinance (went into effect a week ago) will bring those numbers down.

 

[RamblingMad]

Not necessarily that options are better now, but more so that we have a (slightly) better understanding of how to treat certain patients. Still a lot of just hoping and praying. Otherwise, we wouldn't have as many deaths as we continue to have.

Between a younger population having it and better treatment options, I expect a lower case fatality rate. I still expect people to die just not as many. I'm still wearing a mask and limiting my time outside of my home as I'm seeing more people I know become infected. That's really the big change. The spread is reaching a point, where more people know at least one person that had/has it.