Grand Floridian Update

[MoreTravels]

Better yet, let us do a group buy, like Groupon stye... we can reserve 50,000 points at a 25% discount or something like that.

We need a strong negotiator, like Mr. Shatner!

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Base, or net?

Base I doubt, but there is precedent for net.

{Like}

 

[DenLo]

Both, from a good source.


Edited to add... there is only a $5 discount currently on BLT points if you purchase over 100 points. My reading between the lines from what I heard was there will be a similar small discount on points for GFV but will start off and end up lower than current BLT $160/point.

I'm a little confused because the current BLT base price is $165 per point. So is your $160 figure before or after the $5 per point discount?

 

[texhanddoc]

I'm a little confused because the current BLT base price is $165 per point. So is your $160 figure before or after the $5 per point discount?

I meant the current discounted price is $160/point. Base is $165. GFV will come in with a base below $160.

 

[MoreTravels]

I wonder when resales would become available then? Does anyone remember how many months / weeks later did ALT or BLT become available after the initial public offerings?

 

[wdrl]

Really? We bought into Aulani during the previews at DLR and the price structure that we bought in at (at the beginning) was the lowest non-cruise price available. (I had read on a TR that during the Member Cruise the offer was for an additional $2-4 off per point) It only went up from there....

I didn't follow BLT's structure and had assumed that pricing for new resorts was always cheapest during previews.

Is this not true?

Really hoping that GFV sales debuts during May/June so we can see what offers are available on the ships when we sail.

My memory is not the best, but when Aulani sales started in July 2010, I believe the base price was $114/point and incentives brought it down to $108/point. At that time, Aulani was actually cheaper than BLT.

 

[tjkraz]

I wonder when resales would become available then? Does anyone remember how many months / weeks later did ALT or BLT become available after the initial public offerings?

Unless there are greater issues with the economy, you may see a trickle within 6-12 months. It will take 2-3 years before there is any consistent quantity.

And I would not expect the sort of price disparity you see on a resort like BLT. The main reason BLT originally settled in the $90s is because that's the lowest pricing DVC offered. In the recession of 2009, pricing dipped to around $92 per point on new BLT purchases.

Let's say the initial offering for VGF is around $160. Most people who are forced to sell within the first couple of years simply will not be able to afford to take much of a loss. Approximately 75% of all DVC purchases are financed and the balance owed to DVC must be paid at closing.

You aren't going to see an owner buy for $160, sell for $100 (less commissions), and then write a check to Disney for thousands of dollars to satisfy the original mortgage. Even an owner who paid cash isn't going to take a substantial loss on the points just to be rid of them quickly.

If buyers are paying $160--plus fees--and have to pay commissions on the sale, I would expect those early sellers to ask $140-150 per point. And as long as there is some modest savings off of DVC's retail price, the sellers should get what they are asking.

 

[DisneyBelle99]

Dear Disney,

Please start selling GFV by June so that I can have a reason to attend the DVC presentation on my upcoming cruise. My tax refund may or may not be with me.

WHAT SHE SAID, substitute by the DVC Member Cruise in September

 

[Dean]

It generally takes a year or 2 to see much or any contracts much less any savings. The only exception I can think of is SSR where members got the bonus points then tried to turn them over to get their money back and make the bonus points free. I seem to recall that was 5-6 months but maybe others recall better than I. I think it's unlikely to see much savings for GF for some time.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I wonder when resales would become available then? Does anyone remember how many months / weeks later did ALT or BLT become available after the initial public offerings?

I seem to recall it taking about 6 months to see the first ones and about a year before seeing anything near enough volume to consider it even resembling "general availability."

Someone will chime in if they remember differently.

EDIT: I defer to the posts above mine. These guys are way more on top of this than I am.

 

[Brian Noble]

I meant the current discounted price is $160/point. Base is $165. GFV will come in with a base below $160.

I was about to bet a La Cava margarita that you are wrong about this, Gregg. Then it occurred to me that DVD could also artificially lower the cost per point by over-pointing the villas.

So, here's my bet: The base cost to buy enough GFV points for a week in a 2BR Magic Season will be equal to or higher than the base cost to buy enough BLT points for a week in a Lake View 2BR Magic Season. If GFV has multiple views, I am assuming the "middle" view, rounding down if an even number of view categories.

I will wager a La Cava Margarita, plus an order of chips and guacamole.

 

[Brian Noble]

I meant the current discounted price is $160/point. Base is $165. GFV will come in with a base below $160.

I was about to bet a La Cava margarita that you are wrong about this, Gregg. Then it occurred to me that DVD could also artificially lower the cost per point by over-pointing the villas.

So, here's my bet: The base cost to buy enough GFV points for a week in a 2BR Magic Season will be higher than the base cost to buy enough BLT points for a week in a Lake View 2BR Magic Season. If GFV has multiple views, I am assuming the "middle" view, rounding down if an even number of view categories.

I will wager a La Cava Margarita, plus an order of chips and guacamole.

 

[Sur]

I was about to bet a La Cava margarita that you are wrong about this, Gregg. Then it occurred to me that DVD could also artificially lower the cost per point by over-pointing the villas.

So, here's my bet: The base cost to buy enough GFV points for a week in a 2BR Magic Season will be equal to or higher than the base cost to buy enough BLT points for a week in a Lake View 2BR Magic Season. If GFV has multiple views, I am assuming the "middle" view, rounding down if an even number of view categories.

I will wager a La Cava Margarita, plus an order of chips and guacamole.

Better hope Donald Trump doesn't take you up on your wager... he'll hold you to it!!!

 

[Brian Noble]

I can afford the $27 if I lose. I won't even assume Gregg is using his TIW card, though I'm pretty sure he has one.

 

[tjkraz]

With Animal Kingdom Villas already at $145 base and BLT at $165, I cannot imagine why DVC would feel any need to market a base of less than $165 for Grand Floridian.

Better to project consistent pricing for the monorail resorts, and manipulate the net price with incentives.

 

[Brian Noble]

Gregg, the more I think about it, the more I'm willing to bet the margarita on base price per point: GFV base >= BLT base.

If you want to also bet the 2BR week-long cost, we can bet that separately for the guac. My next trip probably isn't until next March if you want to settle up in person.

 

[texhanddoc]

Gregg, the more I think about it, the more I'm willing to bet the margarita on base price per point: GFV base >= BLT base.

If you want to also bet the 2BR week-long cost, we can bet that separately for the guac. My next trip probably isn't until next March if you want to settle up in person.

Haha! Ok I trust my source. Ill bet you that the base GFV price is LESS than the base BLT price. A margarita at Epcot or ill take you up to the ToTWL. My next trip is in June unless you can sweet talk my wife into a F&G trip. It's on like Donkey Kong!

 

[wdrl]

With Animal Kingdom Villas already at $145 base and BLT at $165, I cannot imagine why DVC would feel any need to market a base of less than $165 for Grand Floridian.

Better to project consistent pricing for the monorail resorts, and manipulate the net price with incentives.

It would not surprise me if, when sales commence for VGF, DVD not only offers special incentives that price VGF less than BLT, but that it also announces that after the initial sales period net prices for VGF will rise $10 to $15. Furthermore, I suspect DVD would offer the grand opening incentives for a very brief time, perhaps just four to six weeks. Buyers want to feel like they are getting a deal, and DVD doesn't want them to have too much time to think about it. The longer a buyer has to think about a purchase, the greater the risk that he or she will change their mind.

I have to hand it to DVD's marketing team for how its handled the price increases for the 'classic' DVC resorts. I won't say it created a panic, but it certainly flushed potential buyers out of the tall grass. And most all of them are so happy that they were able to 'save' $15/point on BWV and the other resorts.

 

[tjkraz]

I have to hand it to DVD's marketing team for how its handled the price increases for the 'classic' DVC resorts. I won't say it created a panic, but it certainly flushed potential buyers out of the tall grass. And most all of them are so happy that they were able to 'save' $15/point on BWV and the other resorts.

Well, I think you might be giving them a little too much credit on that one. Not sure DVD's marketing team is worthy of any praise since they didn't actually MARKET anything. No notice was sent regarding the price increases. Thousands of members were undoubtedly ignorant of the entire situation. Only reason it came to light is a few Guides leaked word to folks who spread the news on-line.

Their goal was simply to raise prices. The fact that it created something of a buzz among buyers is just happy coincidence.

 

[lilpooh108]

It would not surprise me if, when sales commence for VGF, DVD not only offers special incentives that price VGF less than BLT, but that it also announces that after the initial sales period net prices for VGF will rise $10 to $15. Furthermore, I suspect DVD would offer the grand opening incentives for a very brief time, perhaps just four to six weeks. Buyers want to feel like they are getting a deal, and DVD doesn't want them to have too much time to think about it. The longer a buyer has to think about a purchase, the greater the risk that he or she will change their mind.

I have to hand it to DVD's marketing team for how its handled the price increases for the 'classic' DVC resorts. I won't say it created a panic, but it certainly flushed potential buyers out of the tall grass. And most all of them are so happy that they were able to 'save' $15/point on BWV and the other resorts.

Agree. BLT is all but sold out, so its pricing is just a guideline. Now it's just a question of whether it's a guideline for the ceiling : oh look honey, BLT is priced higher than GFV, what a great deal! or a cushion : oh look honey, GFV is so reasonably priced b/c BLT has been selling at/around this price.

I tend to believe that GFV will come in slightly lower than BLT (net of incentives).