Grand Californian Sellout Poll

[wdw4life]

I am an AP holder at DL (though with the new blockout day prices, we may have to rethink that). We live about 4 hours away and always plan our trips in advance (unlike many who are truly local and head over for the day or the weekend on a whim).

That said, I have never in my life scheduled a trip to DL more than 7 months in advance. To us, the whole point to vacationing close to home is that you can do it without so much advance planning. If I am going to plan that far ahead, I will hop on a plane and head to WDW and enjoy the comforts of BWV.

Unless the points per room are a steal (not likely) or the points are really cheap (again, not likely), I don't see us buying even 25 points at GCV.

Instead, you'll probably find us at the PP enjoying a great AP rate or over at the Sheraton earning miles to upgrade our flights to Florida!

-- Suzanne

The only problem with the waiting for AP rates is they don't do them very many times a year. And they go really fast. I tried for GCV for some dates I wanted and they had nothing. I was able to get PP for one date but the only thing available was concierge city view. I ended up taking it but that was not my first or even second choice of room types. I also think once all the changes are made to DCA there is going to be less slow time for the hotels to try to fill the rooms. And if they ever open a third park forget it.

I really hope they work out some kind of deal for the DLR AP. I can't believe the premium pass is going up to $379!

 

[wdw4life]

I voted three-six months. I think it will go fast as it is going to be so small and high demand. The people who would like to take trips to DLR at least every other year will know they will have to do an add on if they want to stay there.

The DVC people I talked to last week indicated they'd had a good response from people already about the GCV.

 

[mello]

Agree, except that DVC is too expensive to use for touring Southern California. When we go we stay at GC only for our DL stay then we move elsewhere. Just my 2 cents.

Same here. (Except we stay "offsite" at DL too). We like to do a few days at DL and a few days in San Diego. It's possible to get a very nice room for under $100 a night.

 

[4Pluto]

I know that I enjoy visiting DL on vacation and would love to trade into GCV once in a while, but when we're trying to guess "pent up demand" I'm not sure how you would factor into the equation how many people live close enough to visit DL for just the day or the weekend. It always seemed to have a different feel than WDW, with the parks bursting at the seems on weekend nights and empty during the week. Do you think the reason that Disney has only three hotels here is based on lower demand or lack of buildable space? Marriott's Newport Beach seems very popular, but I can't help but notice that its their only S.Cal. property.

At a minimum, do you think there will be more competition for weekend nights (and higher point requirements)?

 

[tjkraz]

3-6 months seems like a safe bet. BCV (which is much larger) took about 13 months, although the marketplace was smaller then.

I'm curious to see how DVC will handle the sale. Will the point charts be on par with Florida? Will they change the minimum purchase threshold to reflect a shorter CA trip duration? Would they consider a purchase MAXIMUM in order to spread the wealth, so to speak?

 

[Longhairbear]

. how many people live close enough to visit DL for just the day or the weekend. It always seemed to have a different feel than WDW, with the parks bursting at the seems on weekend nights and empty during the week. Do you think the reason that Disney has only three hotels here is based on lower demand or lack of buildable space?

DLR is definitely a one day destination for locals, and management has been trying to reposition the resort as a multiday, overnight stay. The Disney hotels have been at 98% capacity for a few years now, so the new addition to the GC is greatly needed. Buildable space is an issue, but there is room for more. There are rumors of at least 2 more new Disney hotels to be built at the resort, with a second DVC stand alone resort. Both Paradise Pier, and Disneyland Hotel are both scheduled for huge makeovers and retheming.

 

[dwelty]

I would like to address the "Disneyland Resort is only a 3 or 4 day destination" argument. It is true that Disneyland is a 2 day park and DCA is a 1 day destination right now

Now inject 1.2 Billion into DCA (Which has been approved) & the planned expansion of Downtown Disney (To include more night time entertainment) And you could add another day on top of that. With an eventual 3rd gate likely sometime in the next decade, You will have a solid Week long destination. This is what Disney want's out of the Disneyland Resort. This is why most of the Stateside Parks and Resorts spending is going to California for the forseeable future.They are thinking long term. Another reason Disney management likes the Disneyland Resort is that it is far more recession proof that WDW. With a huge local population, Disneyland suffered far less than WDW did after September 11th. In the 2 years following that tradegy when WDW was seeing masive layoffs and drastically reduced park hours and entertainment options, Disneyland was chugging along with only a small drop in attendance. The only dissapointment was DCA. Since that is being addressed now, (With some spectacular plans no less) it is only a matter of time before attendance starts exploding at that park. Attendance numbers could rival those of EPCOT in a few years.

 

[wdw4life]

I think a lot of people are unaware of the DCA makeover or, at least, don't recognize the scope of it. Once that is complete DCA is going to be amazing! I'll be even more grateful for my GCV points with the direct entrance to DCA. Of course, by the time that is complete GCV will be sold out. And you really will have to be an owner to stay there. Once those renovations are finished I don't think there will be any availability at 7 months. I anticipate they will be building another DVC at DLR further down the road but the location will not be as good. GCV will have the best location of any DVC resort on either coast.

 

[JimC]

Then DVC should not sell in Hawaii either, because Wiakiki is only really a 2 day thing. Or any other location.

Not sure why the number of days is relevant. It is relevant only to the number of points one would likely buy, not the location of the resort. Thus DL will likely average smaller contracts.

The real question is whether it is good use of vacation dollars. HH and VB proved that the magic, while nice, is not a controlling factor off property. My MVCI Cypress Harbour is one third the cost to buy and three-quarters the cost to own compared to OKW. SO we use that when we are looking for a non-Disney holiday. The economics of buying DVC for off property use is not justified, in my opinion. That is why when we visit DL we stay at Disney only for that portion of our stay then we move on.

 

[JimC]

I would like to address the "Disneyland Resort is only a 3 or 4 day destination" argument. It is true that Disneyland is a 2 day park and DCA is a 1 day destination right now

Now inject 1.2 Billion into DCA (Which has been approved) & the planned expansion of Downtown Disney (To include more night time entertainment) And you could add another day on top of that. With an eventual 3rd gate likely sometime in the next decade, You will have a solid Week long destination. This is what Disney want's out of the Disneyland Resort. This is why most of the Stateside Parks and Resorts spending is going to California for the forseeable future.They are thinking long term. Another reason Disney management likes the Disneyland Resort is that it is far more recession proof that WDW. With a huge local population, Disneyland suffered far less than WDW did after September 11th. In the 2 years following that tradegy when WDW was seeing masive layoffs and drastically reduced park hours and entertainment options, Disneyland was chugging along with only a small drop in attendance. The only dissapointment was DCA. Since that is being addressed now, (With some spectacular plans no less) it is only a matter of time before attendance starts exploding at that park. Attendance numbers could rival those of EPCOT in a few years.

True enough. And I hope they do what you speak of. But to get a week they need at least a real 2nd gate (DCA is still weak), a third gate and a water park. I do not see how they are going to do all that plus resorts on the land holdings they have. But if they do, then I would buy more points. There is always the resale market.

 

[wdw4life]

I posted this in another thread but for those interested in reading about the DCA makeover read this. http://www.miceage.com/allutz/al082807a.htm

 

[dwelty]

True enough. And I hope they do what you speak of. But to get a week they need at least a real 2nd gate (DCA is still weak), a third gate and a water park. I do not see how they are going to do all that plus resorts on the land holdings they have. But if they do, then I would buy more points. There is always the resale market.

It's not what I speak of, Bob Iger said it himself last week in New York.

I think a third gate will be enough to get people to stay for a week. Disneyland park itself has more attractions than any other single Disney park anywhere. It definately is good for two days. A new improved DCA could be a 2 day park as well. The third gate at 70 acres should only be good for 1 day, (although with Disneyland park, Disney has proven that they can cram alot of attractions in a small space, so who knows?). Add a resort day to that and I think it's close enough. I do not think a water park in Anaheim would do well. It is simply not hot and humid enough to support a year round operation.

I do agree that there will be alot of small contracts sold, but I think that this will be due, in large part to the fact that 83% of DVC owners live on the East Coast. With WDW so much closer, a trip every three years to Disneyland for a week will only require a small purchase. (I do not see people flying that far for a trip of less than a week) You are willing to move off site for part of the time, this does not mean that others like to be bothered with that. I think really it comes down to what is cost effective for you.

We stay at the Grand Californian about 4 times a year (3 weekends and one full week in the summer to escape the heat of Temecula). at almost $400.00 per night for a standard room, we will find DVC points very cost effective.

 

[wdw4life]

Staying at the GCH is not cheap. For DBF birthday last April I was going to surprise her with a stay at the GCH for a couple days. Even with my AP discount it came to over $1000.00. Needless to say I did not do that. That's why I am so excited about GCV. Even weekend points will not come to nearly that.

I'm curious as to why four people think it will take more than 5 years for the GCV to sell out. They must think nobody wants to buy there.

 

[JimC]

It's not what I speak of, Bob Iger said it himself last week in New York..

I know but I suspect that it is more Lassiter's influence then Iger's initiative. He, Iger, strikes me as very capable but not very visionary. That is why I was thrilled when he put a deal together with Pixar -- expensive, but worth it in my view and very sharp thinking on Iger's part.

I think a third gate will be enough to get people to stay for a week. Disneyland park itself has more attractions than any other single Disney park anywhere. It definitely is good for two days. A new improved DCA could be a 2 day park as well. The third gate at 70 acres should only be good for 1 day, (although with Disneyland park, Disney has proven that they can cram alot of attractions in a small space, so who knows?). Add a resort day to that and I think it's close enough...

Possibly, but DCA is at best a half-day park now so I will wait and see how they spend their capital investment first. I hope you are correct because I actually prefer DL to the MK and would be thrilled it they extended that quality to DCA and the 3rd gate.

I do not think a water park in Anaheim would do well. It is simply not hot and humid enough to support a year round operation...

You may very well be right on that, but we have them in the northeast and I think the weather in LA is generally warmer there.

I do agree that there will be alot of small contracts sold, but I think that this will be due, in large part to the fact that 83% of DVC owners live on the East Coast. With WDW so much closer, a trip every three years to Disneyland for a week will only require a small purchase. (I do not see people flying that far for a trip of less than a week) You are willing to move off site for part of the time, this does not mean that others like to be bothered with that. I think really it comes down to what is cost effective for you.

We stay at the Grand Californian about 4 times a year (3 weekends and one full week in the summer to escape the heat of Temecula). at almost $400.00 per night for a standard room, we will find DVC points very cost effective.

Each to his/her own desires. And yes, when we visit the west coast each year it is for a week or more. And if you are correct about DL becoming a week destination then we will do a week there and our week in Palm Desert.

I just can not see spending the dollars when there are many other top notch programs with more resorts at less cost. The premium for the simplicity just does not work for me. That is why we also own MVCI. But for others it might work just fine.

 

[wdw4life]

On the waterpark, the ones we have here aren't even open year round. Knott's Soak City, which is just a few miles away, and Raging Waters, Californias largest waterpark, are already closed for the year. Neither one will re-open until the spring. I don't know if Disney would be able to make it profitable enough to actually open one.

 

[disney-super-mom]

I think it will sell fast. I voted 3-6 months, but I think it'll be closer to 3 months than 6 months. It'll depend on the 'rules' of adding on there for current members.

As far as a waterpark at the DLR, I can't imagine Disney doing it. It's just not warm enough year around to have one. Now if they built an indoor waterpark then great - they could keep it open all year!

 

[jemiaule]

With an eventual 3rd gate likely sometime in the next decade, You will have a solid Week long destination.

I really doubt we will see a 3rd gate in the next decade. DCA has been such a flop that I believe they are going to be very slow to put in another park at DLR. (yes, this is taking into consideration they are redoing things. They probably are going to have a wait and see attitude)

The next question is where would they put it? Current holding do not support putting in another park; especially if you consider the speculation they are going to want to add more resorts.

I guess they could buy surrounding land but what land? Anything on Katella is probably out because of the convention center and the large supporting hotels. Harbour could be a logistical nightmare as far as traffic flow and getting patrons over there. Probably the only alternative would be purchasing land on Walnut.

 

[dwelty]

I just can not see spending the dollars when there are many other top notch programs with more resorts at less cost. The premium for the simplicity just does not work for me. That is why we also own MVCI. But for others it might work just fine.

Fair enough.

 

[dwelty]

I rally doubt we will see a 3rd gate in the next decade. DCA has been such a flop that I believe they are going to be very slow to put in another park at DLR.

The next question is where would they put it? Current holding do not support putting in another park; especially if you consider the speculation they are going to want to add more resorts.

I guess they could buy surrounding land but what land? Anything on Katella is probably out because of the convention center and the large supporting hotels. Harbour could be a logistical nightmare as far as traffic flow and getting patrons over there. Probably the only alternative would be purchasing land on Walnut.

They already have land slated for a third gate. 70 acres off of Katella and Harbor. the 40 acres behind the Paradise Pier hotel is already zoned hotel/resort. 05 and 06 were banner years in attendance for the Disneyland Resort (despite the attendance numbers for DCA) And per person spending was higher than at WDW. Disney would not be putting 1.2 Billion into DCA if they thought the Disneyland Resort was a lost cause.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Hi DWelty, can you say when the "off" season for Anaheim is? Need to get that first ressie in so I can see my son in LA!