Global Warming - A Giant Lie.

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Global warming? Well, I don't know. However, it is obvious that in Switzerland there is warming taking place and causing all of the glaciers to retreat.



Actually Switzerland is heating up but the reason is that the whole world is trying to get behind als these secret bank accounts.
Now all those famous Global warning scientist that made millions by selling people this hoax are sweating that the truth comes out, there lies become public and there bank accounts get confiscated. :rotfl2:
 
Love the argument that when a person doesn't buy into a particular notion that it's ok to toss absurd statements like, "these same people also tend to believe that the moon landing was faked and that the earth is about 6,000 years old," into the equation. All you're doing is trying to belittle anyone who disagrees with you. It will NEVER work, I can assure you of that.

NO the scientific evidence is NOT all in. Thousands upon thousands (tens of thousands actually) of scientists have gone on the record to say that global warming has nothing to do with man, and more importantly, CO2. CO2 has NEVER driven temperature. As a matter of fact, CO2 actually lags temperature by about 100 years (I believe that the number, but would have to look to say it 100%). If I am off, it doesn't change the fact that temperature drives CO2.

The ocean and volcanoes release the vast majority of CO2 that's in Earth's atmosphere. CO2 is only one gas that makes up the greenhouse gases in our atmosphere and it only makes up a very small percentage of all greenhouse gases. Then when oceans and volcanoes make up the vast majority of that TINY greenhouse gas, it's absurd to believe that man causes temps to rise.

Historically speaking (assuming you don't selectively make a hockey chart graph like Al Gore did that totally ignored the entire ice core record), what we are going thru (or should I say went thru?) is nothing new. The planet has ALWAYS gone thru these types of temperature changes.

It's also interesting to note that the temperature peaked in 1998. This was OVER a decade ago, yet we're so foolish that we can't see that?

I'm sure you'll hang on to ice caps eroding and such, but that too is nothing new.

Solar rays have the most effect on the temperature.

So, when we get the sun, the oceans and volcanoes (among other causes) under control, then maybe we'll stand a chance of fighting an imaginary global warming.

As for the debate being over, the only person who believes that is Al Gore. Scientists have asked him, have even BEGGED him to debate the issue, but he simply refuses. As a matter of fact, the man who started the weather channel had thought about suing Gore because of his carbon tax credits JUST to get him under oath so he could answer questions.

Oh, and there are more scientists who have gone on the record stating global warming is not man made than sat on the panel who decided it's some catastrophic event waiting to happen. AND, lest we not forget, environmental activists also sat on the panel that was put in charge to determine if GW is really happening. How ridiculous is that. Politicians also sat on that panel. These people simply were NOT qualified to make such a determination, not to mention they went in with a bias so they most definitely had ulterior motives.

Some scientists who did sit on the IPCC panel have had to threaten a lawsuit to have their names removed from the list of scientists who deemed GW was a huge threat.

Even scientists who have retired from NASA have been speaking out. Once they retired, there were no repercussions.

So, maybe you're just one of those who refuse to look at the facts and then just espouse the same boring rhetoric?

I would like to respectfully disagree. The scientific evidence is in (Of course, there will always be "scientists of the Pat Robertson University mold" that disagree). Overall though, the vast majority of the reputable scientific community is in agreement on climate change.

I have included a scientific paper below that explains the relationship between CO2 and global temperatures. It does include information that is in line with what you were saying about CO2 lagging temperature change, but it also explains the effects that increased CO2 has on surface temperatures. Notice that the article is cited with references from "Nature" and "Science" publications. These publications are utilized by universities the world over. These are reputable sources of information. Unfortunately, your facts are misleading and wrong. Please see article below:



Past changes in CO2 and temperature can illuminate the potential future effect of continuing CO2 rise on global mean temperatures. Data from Antarctic ice cores have provided records of surface air temperature and inferred global CO2 concentrations back to about 740,000 years ago. Surface air temperatures based on the H and O isotopic composition of ice have varied by about 8-12°C on orbital timescales (10,0000 to 100,000 years); the longest current records indicate eight glacial-interglacial cycles back to about 740 ka (kiloyears B.P.). Associated with these cycles are ~80-120 ppmv changes in CO2 concentrations based on measurements of trapped air bubbles. The most rapid changes occurred in less than 10,000 years at glacial terminations, termed Terminations 1-8 at ca. 15, 130, 240, 325, 420, 515, 625, and 730 ka, respectively. These sharp Terminations provide an important test of potential relationships between Antarctic air temperature and global CO2 concentrations. However, determination of lead-lag relationships is complicated by the fact that air diffuses in compacting snow long after the snow is deposited, leading to significant age differences between air and ice at a given level in an ice core. The so-called “gas age - ice age difference” ranges from about 500 to 6000 years, depending on snow accumulation and compaction rates, with uncertainty on the order of 1000 years. Specifically, this complicates determining the timing of air temperature increase and CO2 rise because the former is derived from measurements on ice and the latter from trapped air. After constraining the “gas age - ice age difference” several studies have determined that initial Antarctic air temperature increase preceded CO2 rise on glacial terminations, typically by about 600 to 3000 years. One study used the δ40Αr isotopic temperature proxy, measured on the same air samples as CO2, and found a lead of 800+200 years at Termination 3. These observations suggest that CO2 rise did not trigger temperature increase. However, these same studies show that approximately 80% of deglacial warming was synchronous with CO2 rise. Furthermore, sensitivity studies indicate that the magnitude of deglacial warming in response to orbital insolation changes requires substantial feedback from greenhouse gases. Scaling these results to make predictions about the next century is difficult, but past climate change is consistent with CO2 exerting a strong positive feedback on surface temperature.

References
Caillon, N., J.P. Severinghaus, J. Jouzel, J-M Barnola, J. Kang, and V.Y. Lipenkov, 2003, Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III: Science, v. 299/5613, p. 1728-1731.
Lüthi, D., M. Le Floch, B. Bereiter, T. Blunier, J-M Barnola, U. Siegenthaler, D. Raynaud, J. Jouzel, H. Fischer, K. Kawamura, and T.F. Stocker, 2008, High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000–800,000 years before present: Nature, v. 453, p. 379-382.
Monnin, E., A. Indermühle, A. Dällenbach, J. Flückiger, B. Stauffer, T.F. Stocker, D. Raynaud, and J-M Barnola, 2001, Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination: Science, v. 291/5501, p. 112-114.
Petit, J.R., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N.I. Barkov, J-M. Barnola, I. Basile, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, M. Davis, G. Delaygue, M. Delmotte, V.M. Kotlyakov, M. Legrand, V.Y. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, C., L. Pépin, C. Ritz, E. Saltzman, and M. Stievenard, 1999, Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420 000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica: Nature, v. 399, p. 429-436.
Ruddiman, W., 2001, Earth's Climate: Past and Future: W.H Freeman and Co., New York, 465 p.
Siegenthaler, U., T.F. Stocker, E. Monnin, D. Lüthi, J. Schwander, B. Stauffer, D. Raynaud, J-M. Barnola, H. Fischer, V. Masson-Delmotte, and J. Jouzel, 2005, Stable carbon cycle-climate relationship during the late Pleistocene: Science, v. 310, p. 1313-1317.


As you can see from the article above, when glaciers melt, CO2 rises. When CO2 levels rise, there is a positive feedback in surface temperatures. Therefore, we should be trying to reduce CO2 to combat rising temperatures. CO2 may not be the sole trigger, but it and other greenhouse gases are working together to create climate change. There are many greenhouse gases that contribute to our current climate change problem. CO2 is not in itself a trigger for global warming. It does however lead to conclusions about what our future climate conditions will be and serve as a warning. So, since temperature rises synchronously with levels of CO2, it stands to reason that reducing CO2 will help reduce global temperatures (I'm hoping at the very least, you do understand the major catastrophic problems that an average rise in the Earth's temperature would cause).

Your statement on the temperature peak of 1998 is also misguided. A one year spike does not prove or disprove climate change. What is to be looked at is the trend of temperatures over a period of time, not one year. If you look at the decade by decade average since the middle part of last century, you will see that global averages have increased each decade. This is synchronous with the industrial revolution of post WWII countries. Of course there might be one year where the temperature spikes or dips. That proves nothing.

I think your last statement sums up the problem with your understanding of this important issue. You view scientific evidence as "boring rhetoric". I am guessing that you will view the above scientific article as "boring rhetoric" also.

So, in closing, don't believe me. You don't know me. You shouldn't believe me. Instead, take the time to track down the references from the given information above. In short, educate yourself.
 
Why has the earth cooled the last several years??
The billion dollar question.

The earth was formed a little under 5 billion years ago. We started recording the weather a couple hundred years ago give or take a few years.

What was the weather like in those unrecorded years?

Some reputable scientists believe the temperature of the sun runs in cycles and has more to do with warming/cooling of the earths climate.

I was going to comment on this very thing, good call!
 
Love the argument that when a person doesn't buy into a particular notion that it's ok to toss absurd statements like, "these same people also tend to believe that the moon landing was faked and that the earth is about 6,000 years old," into the equation. All you're doing is trying to belittle anyone who disagrees with you. It will NEVER work, I can assure you of that.

NO the scientific evidence is NOT all in. Thousands upon thousands (tens of thousands actually) of scientists have gone on the record to say that global warming has nothing to do with man, and more importantly, CO2. CO2 has NEVER driven temperature. As a matter of fact, CO2 actually lags temperature by about 100 years (I believe that the number, but would have to look to say it 100%). If I am off, it doesn't change the fact that temperature drives CO2.

The ocean and volcanoes release the vast majority of CO2 that's in Earth's atmosphere. CO2 is only one gas that makes up the greenhouse gases in our atmosphere and it only makes up a very small percentage of all greenhouse gases. Then when oceans and volcanoes make up the vast majority of that TINY greenhouse gas, it's absurd to believe that man causes temps to rise.

Historically speaking (assuming you don't selectively make a hockey chart graph like Al Gore did that totally ignored the entire ice core record), what we are going thru (or should I say went thru?) is nothing new. The planet has ALWAYS gone thru these types of temperature changes.

It's also interesting to note that the temperature peaked in 1998. This was OVER a decade ago, yet we're so foolish that we can't see that?

I'm sure you'll hang on to ice caps eroding and such, but that too is nothing new.

Solar rays have the most effect on the temperature.

So, when we get the sun, the oceans and volcanoes (among other causes) under control, then maybe we'll stand a chance of fighting an imaginary global warming.

As for the debate being over, the only person who believes that is Al Gore. Scientists have asked him, have even BEGGED him to debate the issue, but he simply refuses. As a matter of fact, the man who started the weather channel had thought about suing Gore because of his carbon tax credits JUST to get him under oath so he could answer questions.

Oh, and there are more scientists who have gone on the record stating global warming is not man made than sat on the panel who decided it's some catastrophic event waiting to happen. AND, lest we not forget, environmental activists also sat on the panel that was put in charge to determine if GW is really happening. How ridiculous is that. Politicians also sat on that panel. These people simply were NOT qualified to make such a determination, not to mention they went in with a bias so they most definitely had ulterior motives.

Some scientists who did sit on the IPCC panel have had to threaten a lawsuit to have their names removed from the list of scientists who deemed GW was a huge threat.

Even scientists who have retired from NASA have been speaking out. Once they retired, there were no repercussions.

So, maybe you're just one of those who refuse to look at the facts and then just espouse the same boring rhetoric?


you are misusing facts either out of ignorance, stubborness or just a lack of knowledge. You are entirely correct that CO2 levels hitorically lag behind temperature. This is because as the warming occurs the CO2 is released from the oceans. The problem is this data was taken from times when there was no great human release of CO2. When you look at the huge rate of CO2 released by humans in the last 100 years or so you see a rate change of temperature rising that is driven (in part) by CO2 release not the other way around.
 

I think the blogger is desperately seeking attention. The debate over global warming has ended. The scientific evidence is abundant. Of course there will always be a segment of the population that believes it is a myth. These same people also tend to believe that the moon landing was faked and that the earth is about 6,000 years old.

Al, is that you?
 
Spoken like someone who is incredibly condescending.

How about you give me a clue and cite me some evidence to show that climate change in the past was always a slow and gentle process.

To show rate change you just need to understand some basic facts.

1) The earth always has and probably always will cycle in warming and cooling.

2) The warming does cause more CO2 in the atmosphere via gassing off from the oceans. (not vice versa)

3) (the key one) the cycle is a part of a feedback loop. Some feedbacks are positive and others negative. CO2 conc is positive (ie it then goes onto contribute to temperature rise which them contributes to more CO2 and so on)

The above are facts and irrefutible. If you accept this then answer the following question.

When the earth warms, and puts more CO2 in the atmosphere which caused furthe rwarming then will humans adding more CO2 into the atmoshere cause....

a) more warming via the positive feedback loop that does exist and is proven or

b) make no difference.

Anyone with so much an ounce of both common sense and scientific knowledge could see that it will increase the rate of temp rise. All that remains to be debated is by how much and if this is deemed significantly different to what would have happened anyway.
 
I am not an expert in any of the sciences necessary to understand a great many of the issues and evidence involved - and I must admit I don't really care. However, a few things strike me as very odd with the "proof" provided.

The biggest problem I see is that he goes on about one journal and how they took it over so it's not actually peer reviewed. This is just not how peer review works. There is more than one scientific journal out there and often papers are submitted multiple times before they're published. Also, if there was a manipulation of the data in a false way it would have been caught. The scientific community is not some secret government organization out to "get" the public. :confused3

I know my husband recently got embroiled in a situation where a fellow scientist had made a mistake with his data. When the other scientist failed to produce his source files my husband brought in collaborators from across the globe to put pressure on the scientist in question. While it's a long and drawn out process either the false data will be withdrawn or it will be refuted. When word of this sort of behavior gets out it's very shaming and there are often censures in place. In my husband's case, he's dealing with a very small and specialized corner of biology. If there was a group of scientists falsifying data on something this big, there would be others cheerfully trying to prove them wrong and they would hardly be quiet about it. I'm sorry, but having seen the peer review process first hand, I don't buy it.
 
Edit: N. Bailey:
Thousands upon thousands (tens of thousands actually) of scientists have gone on the record to say that global warming has nothing to do with man.

Agreed 100%.
 
To show rate change you just need to understand some basic facts.

1) The earth always has and probably always will cycle in warming and cooling.

2) The warming does cause more CO2 in the atmosphere via gassing off from the oceans. (not vice versa)

3) (the key one) the cycle is a part of a feedback loop. Some feedbacks are positive and others negative. CO2 conc is positive (ie it then goes onto contribute to temperature rise which them contributes to more CO2 and so on)

The above are facts and irrefutible. If you accept this then answer the following question.

When the earth warms, and puts more CO2 in the atmosphere which caused furthe rwarming then will humans adding more CO2 into the atmoshere cause....

a) more warming via the positive feedback loop that does exist and is proven or

b) make no difference.

Anyone with so much an ounce of both common sense and scientific knowledge could see that it will increase the rate of temp rise. All that remains to be debated is by how much and if this is deemed significantly different to what would have happened anyway.

Anyone with an ounce of both common sense and scientific knowledge would not list this as being "ALL that remains". This is the whole CRUX of the debate on human-induced climate change.

The following paper does a much better job of expressing my feelings on this issue than I'd be able to (at least without putting a lot of time and effort into it!):

Winning and Losing the Global Warming Debate

Roger A. Pielke, Jr.

Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
National Center for Atmospheric Research

Daniel Sarewitz

Center for Science, Policy, and Outcomes
Columbia University

It is time to declare winners and losers in the global warming debate. The results might surprise you.

For more than a decade, scientists and policy makers have engaged in a sometimes vitriolic debate about the Earth's climate. The debate concerns potential changes associated with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, popularly known as global warming. The debate can be summarized as Global Warming: YES or NO? It is rooted in science, including frequent references to computer models and scientific expertise. Yet the debate only thinly masks the associated policy prescriptions: Global Warming: YES = global emissions reductions, while Global Warming: NO = business as usual.

On the Global Warming: YES side of the debate are those who think of themselves as Cassandras, warning of impending environmental doom caused by profligate lifestyles and a lack of concern for human impact on the environment. Some Cassandras have hitched their existing social and environmental concerns to global warming. They see the issue as a way to mobilize public support. Still, the majority of Cassandras have taken the moral high ground. If humans are acting in ways that could compromise our collective future, they point out, it is our responsibility to take precautions.

The champions of the Global Warming: NO side of the debate see themselves in the role of Dorothy, pulling back the curtain to reveal the frail wizards who manipulate scientific models for political motives. The Dorothies seek to expose the great uncertainty involved in the models, even while at times presenting a "don't worry, be happy" philosophy. This side of the debate has gained stature from the excesses of the Cassandras who make claims at the fringes of scientific credibility—like the well-worn but incorrect claim that extreme hurricanes occur more frequently now than in earlier decades this century.

But the Dorothies are guilty of many excesses themselves. Some have even promised that rising greenhouse-gas levels will benefit society. As with the Cassandras, some also use the debate to exploit their political interests, all but inviting ad hominum attacks on their motives, rather than on the merits of their positions. But, like the Cassandras, many Dorothies have taken the moral high ground, pointing out that it would be foolish to act as if we know the future with certainty, when most evidence suggests that we don't — and can't.

So who has won the debate? The answer depends on how one judges victory.

From the standpoint of policy action, the Cassandras have won the debate going away. The 1997 Kyoto Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, proposed strong reductions in emissions growth. Many nations of the world have all but accepted that something of the sort will become reality. Many companies as well, including Ford and British Petroleum, have begun to acknowledge the need for emissions policies in response to climate change.

Some Cassandras will decry the pace of the action. But it cannot be denied that the Global Warming: YES or NO? debate is no longer about whether to act. Even in the United States, where the Senate has refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the question now is how to act.

From the standpoint of science, however, the debate is a draw. We have learned much more about climate over the past decade, but arguably we are no closer to gleaning the future state of the climate. The relationship between human activities, the atmosphere, and indeed the global environment is much more complicated than scientists had thought. Modeling historical climate has proven hard enough, but accurate predictions of future climate — decades or more hence — remain out of reach. An oil crisis, a volcano, or a breakthrough in energy technology would render irrelevant the predictions of even the most sophisticated computer model.

In any case, the real-world evaluation of the accuracy of climate forecasts must await the unfolding of a distant future. Thus, there is one prediction of which we can be confident: ten years from now, debate over scientific uncertainties about global warming will rage on. Still, the public is on the side of the Cassandras. As many studies have shown, the public readily believes that human activities can significantly alter the Earth's climate. The conclusions of prestigious science reports can seem rather tame by comparison.

From the standpoint of the impacts of climate on humans and the environment, we are all losers. The global-warming debate has missed one of the most important aspects of the problem: Climate changes. In fact, the phrase "climate change" is redundant. A changing climate is an unchanging attribute of a dynamic Earth. Human-caused or not, these changes are likely to have impacts on society and the environment. Natural disasters, human health, biodiversity, endangered species, water resources, international trade, financial services, transportation networks, agriculture — virtually any area of human experience is in some way affected by climate. These impacts are occurring today, and they hold the prospect of increasing in the future. And for the most part, we are doing too little in response.

We are all losers because the global warming debate has focused almost exclusively on preventing climate change. And it has addressed greenhouse-gas emissions as the sole cause. But climate is only part of the cause of impacts, and greenhouse gases are only one potential cause of changes in climate.

Climate impacts occur because society and environment are vulnerable. This vulnerability might take the form of urban development on a flood plain or on an unstable mountainside, or it might mean a species stressed through loss of its habitat. Because society and environment are already vulnerable to their present climate, stabilizing climate would not prevent impacts. Nor would reducing greenhouse-gas emissions necessarily stabilize climate, which historically has shown great variability.


Furthermore, even if emissions reductions could in principle stabilize climate, it is very unlikely that the world will see emissions reductions that Cassandras deem necessary to avoid dangerous human interference with the atmosphere. Therefore, if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is correct, humans will contribute to climate change in the future. And even if the IPCC happens to be wrong, we can still be confident that the climate will continue to change. It always has.

In short, we are all losers, because the debate has ignored the need for society to adapt to climate. Ian Burton, the natural-hazards scholar, has pointed out a few reasons for this neglect:

First, many Cassandras oppose adaptation. They see it as undermining the argument for stabilizing climate and as an obstacle to sustainable energy policies.
Second, the political process has framed the issues too narrowly. It keeps emissions goals separate from other sensitive issues, such as economic development and international assistance. Adaptation comes awfully close to these issues.
Third, adapting to climate means accepting that we cannot control it. But many disagree and assume that humans can in fact control future climate impacts via energy policies. In his book Earth in the Balance, Al Gore wrote that adaptation represents "laziness." Presumably, he believed that through mechanisms like the Kyoto Protocol, humans can control the climate in desired ways.
If we are to reduce our world's vulnerability to climate, it could very well be that our worst enemy is the Global Warming: Yes or No? debate itself. Climate impacts cause human suffering, economic loss, and ecosystem destruction. Meanwhile, diplomats, politicians, and scientists pursue a debate that has become too narrow, at times too personal, and increasingly irrelevant to the real impacts. As a striking example of this folly, last fall thousands of diplomats, advisers, and advocacy groups gathered in Buenos Aires to address the climate problem shortly after Hurricane Mitch killed more than 10,000 people in Central America. Some in Buenos Aries even pointed to Hurricane Mitch as a harbinger of future disasters brought on by climate change. We point to Hurricane Mitch as a failure to prepare for climate impacts today.

What is to be done? Two steps can be taken right away:

First, the scientific and policy communities must exercise leadership. Whether Cassandras or Dorothies, leaders from the scientific community must look beyond past commitments and personal stakes. They must recognize publicly that the Global Warming: YES or NO? debate has lost much of its usefulness. It is now distracting us from what needs to be done.
Second, politicians and diplomats, too, should turn to adaptation as a needed response to climate. Under the mantle of climate, they must tackle such thorny issues as preparation for natural disasters, habitat preservation, and land-use policies.
In short, let both sides declare victory. They can then ask instead how to make society and the environment less vulnerable to climate. The IPCC has already started to focus its attention on vulnerability and adaptation to climate, but its steps in this direction must be bolder.

Some say that a focus on adaptation might result in "every country for itself." It need not. The U.N. Framework Convention provides a mechanism through which the world's climate "winners" can help boost the resilience of the climate "losers." When climate does change, the distribution of winners and losers might also change, but shared assistance would persist.

These steps defy conventional wisdom. They are unlikely to be popular, given that the status quo sustains Cassandras and Dorothies alike. Unfortunately, in spite of the high moral rhetoric from both sides, the debate itself stands in the way of further progress. We need a third way to confront climate change, even if it means moving beyond now-comfortable positions held fast for many years.

Climate changes. Let's deal with it.


http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us/roger_pielke/hp_roger/debate.html
 
Anyone with an ounce of both common sense and scientific knowledge would not list this as being "ALL that remains". This is the whole CRUX of the debate on human-induced climate change.

The following paper does a much better job of expressing my feelings on this issue than I'd be able to (at least without putting a lot of time and effort into it!):

Winning and Losing the Global Warming Debate

Roger A. Pielke, Jr.

Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
National Center for Atmospheric Research

Daniel Sarewitz

Center for Science, Policy, and Outcomes
Columbia University

It is time to declare winners and losers in the global warming debate. The results might surprise you.

For more than a decade, scientists and policy makers have engaged in a sometimes vitriolic debate about the Earth's climate. The debate concerns potential changes associated with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, popularly known as global warming. The debate can be summarized as Global Warming: YES or NO? It is rooted in science, including frequent references to computer models and scientific expertise. Yet the debate only thinly masks the associated policy prescriptions: Global Warming: YES = global emissions reductions, while Global Warming: NO = business as usual.

On the Global Warming: YES side of the debate are those who think of themselves as Cassandras, warning of impending environmental doom caused by profligate lifestyles and a lack of concern for human impact on the environment. Some Cassandras have hitched their existing social and environmental concerns to global warming. They see the issue as a way to mobilize public support. Still, the majority of Cassandras have taken the moral high ground. If humans are acting in ways that could compromise our collective future, they point out, it is our responsibility to take precautions.

The champions of the Global Warming: NO side of the debate see themselves in the role of Dorothy, pulling back the curtain to reveal the frail wizards who manipulate scientific models for political motives. The Dorothies seek to expose the great uncertainty involved in the models, even while at times presenting a "don't worry, be happy" philosophy. This side of the debate has gained stature from the excesses of the Cassandras who make claims at the fringes of scientific credibility—like the well-worn but incorrect claim that extreme hurricanes occur more frequently now than in earlier decades this century.

But the Dorothies are guilty of many excesses themselves. Some have even promised that rising greenhouse-gas levels will benefit society. As with the Cassandras, some also use the debate to exploit their political interests, all but inviting ad hominum attacks on their motives, rather than on the merits of their positions. But, like the Cassandras, many Dorothies have taken the moral high ground, pointing out that it would be foolish to act as if we know the future with certainty, when most evidence suggests that we don't — and can't.

So who has won the debate? The answer depends on how one judges victory.

From the standpoint of policy action, the Cassandras have won the debate going away. The 1997 Kyoto Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, proposed strong reductions in emissions growth. Many nations of the world have all but accepted that something of the sort will become reality. Many companies as well, including Ford and British Petroleum, have begun to acknowledge the need for emissions policies in response to climate change.

Some Cassandras will decry the pace of the action. But it cannot be denied that the Global Warming: YES or NO? debate is no longer about whether to act. Even in the United States, where the Senate has refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the question now is how to act.

From the standpoint of science, however, the debate is a draw. We have learned much more about climate over the past decade, but arguably we are no closer to gleaning the future state of the climate. The relationship between human activities, the atmosphere, and indeed the global environment is much more complicated than scientists had thought. Modeling historical climate has proven hard enough, but accurate predictions of future climate — decades or more hence — remain out of reach. An oil crisis, a volcano, or a breakthrough in energy technology would render irrelevant the predictions of even the most sophisticated computer model.

In any case, the real-world evaluation of the accuracy of climate forecasts must await the unfolding of a distant future. Thus, there is one prediction of which we can be confident: ten years from now, debate over scientific uncertainties about global warming will rage on. Still, the public is on the side of the Cassandras. As many studies have shown, the public readily believes that human activities can significantly alter the Earth's climate. The conclusions of prestigious science reports can seem rather tame by comparison.

From the standpoint of the impacts of climate on humans and the environment, we are all losers. The global-warming debate has missed one of the most important aspects of the problem: Climate changes. In fact, the phrase "climate change" is redundant. A changing climate is an unchanging attribute of a dynamic Earth. Human-caused or not, these changes are likely to have impacts on society and the environment. Natural disasters, human health, biodiversity, endangered species, water resources, international trade, financial services, transportation networks, agriculture — virtually any area of human experience is in some way affected by climate. These impacts are occurring today, and they hold the prospect of increasing in the future. And for the most part, we are doing too little in response.

We are all losers because the global warming debate has focused almost exclusively on preventing climate change. And it has addressed greenhouse-gas emissions as the sole cause. But climate is only part of the cause of impacts, and greenhouse gases are only one potential cause of changes in climate.

Climate impacts occur because society and environment are vulnerable. This vulnerability might take the form of urban development on a flood plain or on an unstable mountainside, or it might mean a species stressed through loss of its habitat. Because society and environment are already vulnerable to their present climate, stabilizing climate would not prevent impacts. Nor would reducing greenhouse-gas emissions necessarily stabilize climate, which historically has shown great variability.


Furthermore, even if emissions reductions could in principle stabilize climate, it is very unlikely that the world will see emissions reductions that Cassandras deem necessary to avoid dangerous human interference with the atmosphere. Therefore, if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is correct, humans will contribute to climate change in the future. And even if the IPCC happens to be wrong, we can still be confident that the climate will continue to change. It always has.

In short, we are all losers, because the debate has ignored the need for society to adapt to climate. Ian Burton, the natural-hazards scholar, has pointed out a few reasons for this neglect:

First, many Cassandras oppose adaptation. They see it as undermining the argument for stabilizing climate and as an obstacle to sustainable energy policies.
Second, the political process has framed the issues too narrowly. It keeps emissions goals separate from other sensitive issues, such as economic development and international assistance. Adaptation comes awfully close to these issues.
Third, adapting to climate means accepting that we cannot control it. But many disagree and assume that humans can in fact control future climate impacts via energy policies. In his book Earth in the Balance, Al Gore wrote that adaptation represents "laziness." Presumably, he believed that through mechanisms like the Kyoto Protocol, humans can control the climate in desired ways.
If we are to reduce our world's vulnerability to climate, it could very well be that our worst enemy is the Global Warming: Yes or No? debate itself. Climate impacts cause human suffering, economic loss, and ecosystem destruction. Meanwhile, diplomats, politicians, and scientists pursue a debate that has become too narrow, at times too personal, and increasingly irrelevant to the real impacts. As a striking example of this folly, last fall thousands of diplomats, advisers, and advocacy groups gathered in Buenos Aires to address the climate problem shortly after Hurricane Mitch killed more than 10,000 people in Central America. Some in Buenos Aries even pointed to Hurricane Mitch as a harbinger of future disasters brought on by climate change. We point to Hurricane Mitch as a failure to prepare for climate impacts today.

What is to be done? Two steps can be taken right away:

First, the scientific and policy communities must exercise leadership. Whether Cassandras or Dorothies, leaders from the scientific community must look beyond past commitments and personal stakes. They must recognize publicly that the Global Warming: YES or NO? debate has lost much of its usefulness. It is now distracting us from what needs to be done.
Second, politicians and diplomats, too, should turn to adaptation as a needed response to climate. Under the mantle of climate, they must tackle such thorny issues as preparation for natural disasters, habitat preservation, and land-use policies.
In short, let both sides declare victory. They can then ask instead how to make society and the environment less vulnerable to climate. The IPCC has already started to focus its attention on vulnerability and adaptation to climate, but its steps in this direction must be bolder.

Some say that a focus on adaptation might result in "every country for itself." It need not. The U.N. Framework Convention provides a mechanism through which the world's climate "winners" can help boost the resilience of the climate "losers." When climate does change, the distribution of winners and losers might also change, but shared assistance would persist.

These steps defy conventional wisdom. They are unlikely to be popular, given that the status quo sustains Cassandras and Dorothies alike. Unfortunately, in spite of the high moral rhetoric from both sides, the debate itself stands in the way of further progress. We need a third way to confront climate change, even if it means moving beyond now-comfortable positions held fast for many years.

Climate changes. Let's deal with it.


http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us/roger_pielke/hp_roger/debate.html


that was a complete wate of your time in typing that. All you have come up with is that climates do change on their own. I know that. Everyone knows that. Its a complete straw man argument to claim that GW supporters dont believe it.

What you cant get away from is the fact that CO2 is a green house gas, it does contribute to warming therefore if we are responsible for putting more CO2 into the atmosphere by definition we must be contribution to at least SOME of the temperature rise or the rate of the rise. To ignore this means that you are ignoring cast iron catagoric proven facts.

No one is saying that we are responsible for ALL temeprature rises. Just some of it and this fact is irrefutible.
 
We are all losers because the global warming debate has focused almost exclusively on preventing climate change. And it has addressed greenhouse-gas emissions as the sole cause. But climate is only part of the cause of impacts, and greenhouse gases are only one potential cause of changes in climate.

And this is why the "anti global warming" argument is so weak. It has to make complete false statements like this to then argue against. Like I wrote in the post above it is a straw man argument.

I challenge you to find any authentic scientific report that labels green house ga emmisions as the sole cause. You simply wont do so. You may find media sensationalisation or some sloppy science journo but you will not ever find a official scientific report saying that and yet it is continually used against people who believe that humans contribute to global warming.

I'll repeat an earlier post, we must contribute to some extent because we do contribute to these levels of gases and these gases do facilitate the temp increase. The only matter of debate is how much we contribute aove and beyond the natural cycle.
 
that was a complete wate of your time in typing that. All you have come up with is that climates do change on their own. I know that. Everyone knows that. Its a complete straw man argument to claim that GW supporters dont believe it.

What you cant get away from is the fact that CO2 is a green house gas, it does contribute to warming therefore if we are responsible for putting more CO2 into the atmosphere by definition we must be contribution to at least SOME of the temperature rise or the rate of the rise. To ignore this means that you are ignoring cast iron catagoric proven facts.

No one is saying that we are responsible for ALL temeprature rises. Just some of it and this fact is irrefutible.

Don't worry about me wasting my time typing. Cutting and pasting isn't a challenging skill to learn. :rolleyes:

Who is claiming that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas? Certainly not me, nor the authors of the article listed above. What IS uncertain, however, is the DEGREE to which human-contributed CO2 in the atmosphere is affecting climate change. Even you said admitted as much in your previous quote:

"All that remains to be debated is by how much and if this is deemed significantly different to what would have happened anyway."


As the above article states, climate change will happen. It is pure hubris to believe that we will ever control the climate on a large scale. My argument (and that of the article above) is that too much energy is being put into trying to 'stop' climate change instead of trying to adapt to it.
 
Who is claiming that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas? Certainly not me, nor the authors of the article listed above. .

Never said you were. My point was that if you accept that it is one, and that it does influence temperature then by definition you have to accept that humans are contributing to temperature changes.


What IS uncertain, however, is the DEGREE to which human-contributed CO2 in the atmosphere is affecting climate change. Even you said admitted as much in your previous quote:.

And I completely agree with that but this doesnt change the fact that we are contributing.

As the above article states, climate change will happen. It is pure hubris to believe that we will ever control the climate on a large scale. My argument (and that of the article above) is that too much energy is being put into trying to 'stop' climate change instead of trying to adapt to it.
:

The climate will change that is a given however we can influence the rate that it happens. No scientist claims that we can stop warming or cooling just that things can be done to reduce the rate of what will inevitably happen.

Look at a different analogy. We will all die one day however that is no reason to speed up the time that takes for it to happen. If you as a person can alter your life style to extend your life then you will do so. Your still gonna die though!!! Same with global warming, it will happen but thats no reason to help it along.
 
We are all losers because the global warming debate has focused almost exclusively on preventing climate change. And it has addressed greenhouse-gas emissions as the sole cause. But climate is only part of the cause of impacts, and greenhouse gases are only one potential cause of changes in climate.[/I]


And this is why the "anti global warming" argument is so weak. It has to make complete false statements like this to then argue against. Like I wrote in the post above it is a straw man argument.

Are you denying that the main focus of those trying to prevent climate change HASN'T been the limiting of greenhouse gas emissions?! Can you please identify for me any other measures that have been addressed by global warming activitists?
 
Are you denying that the main focus of those trying to prevent climate change HASN'T been the limiting of greenhouse gas emissions?! Can you please identify for me any other measures that have been addressed by global warming activitists?

No, Im not denying that its the main focus. However it being the main focus is not the same as saying that global warming activists think its the only factor in global warming.

The reason that it is the main focus is pretty obvious really, its the only factor we can actually influence. We cant put focus on anything else unless you can suggest ways we can change solar activity, the relative position and angle of the sun to earth, volcanic acivity, cloud cover or the solubility of gas in water.
 
The climate will change that is a given however we can influence the rate that it happens. No scientist claims that we can stop warming or cooling just that things can be done to reduce the rate of what will inevitably happen.

Look at a different analogy. We will all die one day however that is no reason to speed up the time that takes for it to happen. If you as a person can alter your life style to extend your life then you will do so. Your still gonna die though!!! Same with global warming, it will happen but thats no reason to help it along.

Does the benefit of severely restricting CO2 production outweigh the enormous cost it would require? Do we even know for sure that earth will continue to warm up?

Yes, limiting CO2 emissions would likely have an effect on the rate of temperature change on the earth. Of course, we don't know whether other factors which affect the rate (i.e., solar activity, cloud cover, etc.) might play a more significant role, perhaps even eventually driving the temperature to DECREASE over time. In that case, an increase of CO2 emissions would mitigate climate change instead of exacerbate it.

Look, I believe that it is in all our best interest to conserve energy and to look for cleaner sources of energy than fossil fuels. I just think that money would be better spent developing new technologies and adapting to climate change than futilely believing that we may be able to control it.
 
you are misusing facts either out of ignorance, stubborness or just a lack of knowledge. You are entirely correct that CO2 levels hitorically lag behind temperature. This is because as the warming occurs the CO2 is released from the oceans. The problem is this data was taken from times when there was no great human release of CO2. When you look at the huge rate of CO2 released by humans in the last 100 years or so you see a rate change of temperature rising that is driven (in part) by CO2 release not the other way around.

Then why were the coldest years of the twentieth century in the 1930s?

ford family
 
Edit: N. Bailey:
Thousands upon thousands (tens of thousands actually) of scientists have gone on the record to say that global warming has nothing to do with man.

Agreed 100%.

Scientists in what fields?
 
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