I think you've hit the nail on the head. If cost was the ONLY factor,
AbD would be out of business. But it's not, and that's why we are hooked on these Adventures.
I have said this before and will note it again
Most people with 4 or more people in the family these are very cost prohibitive unless they are well off and most times those people have been to many of the places that ABD go to already. Normal every day people and even people with a little more in the pockets maybe that stay at the deluxe hotels at Disney with or without a discount still find it cost prohibitive when looking at 4 people.
We always stay at deluxe hotels at Disney but can't justify the costs of the ABD. We traveling each year and travel extensively, we don't stay at value hotels but more at hotels that offer more amenities and more of what we like. Example, we don't go to Europe and stay at hotels that are 100 or less euros per night because they don't offer what we are looking for
To give an example the Backstage Magic tour for 4, 2 adults, 2 children age 11 and younger, would cost $9876 in value season, which is almost $2000 per night. This goes to $11,396 during peak season ($2800 per night) when most schools are out and families can travel. That is
only for a 5night vacation. This is NOT including any airfare. A 6 night ABD to Tuscany during value season is less then the Backstage one for 5 nights. Furthermore these prices include the early booking discount they are higher if the discount is not available. Even the China one is less per night then the above. During peak season China averages at $1700 per night for a family of 4
We are taking a 15nt Panama Canal
DCL cruise in a verandah room for 4 in August for the same amount. Personally I wouldn't spend almost 10K on a 5nt vacation. Two weeks yes but not for less then one week no matter how big of a fan we are of Disney products and destinations
For two people traveling I can see where most people will find it a good value but for 4 or more they are pricing themselves out of most middle to upper middle incomes.
Everyone has to do what is right for them but personally I have travelled to Europe many many times even before the internet existed to search for travel information. I cannot see paying over $2000 per night on some of these tours especially after the hotel they stuck us in on the Southwest Splendors (the Grand Hotel). I would never pay more then $100 per night for that hotel and the food on some parts of the tour really did leave a lot to be desired.
I can stay at a Four Seasons somewhere for $600 & up a night and get an amazing room and service if I wanted to go that route of paying a lot for a night somewhere
On our Southwest Splendors tour there were more couples, granted we went in May, then families and 50% of the people on the tour were using their DVC points to pay for the ABD
The friends we travelled with were also using their DVC points