Future resale value on restricted resorts?

[BeachClub2014]

I am impressed that this debate thread is still alive and well. Has anybody changed their minds or position yet? Any new Riviera converts? Are any RIV owners ready to acknowledge the folly of their purchase?

 

[havoc315]

I do think it's entirely reasonable to look at whether you're getting good value when you purchase DVC. The key questions being:
1 -- Will the purchase provide pleasure
2 -- Will the purchase provide that pleasure at some sort of discount or value?

If DVC cost more than rack rate, the Disney vacations might still give you pleasure, but there would be no rational reason to purchase it still.

But is a DVC purchase about MAXIMIZING the savings to the penny? If the point was MAXIMIZING the savings..... Then stick the money into a reasonable investment and use the income to stay offsite. That's a MUCH better value than buying DVC.
Is it about purchasing the DVC property that saves the MOST money?? If that was the case, we could get an expert number cruncher. Forget the mantra about buying where you want to stay -- Everyone should buy that one property that is the "best value."

So on that note -- Is it fair to ask, is the resale value so bad that it decimates any discount or value? The answer is clearly NO. We have enough data at this point to very safely make that conclusion.
Imagine telling someone, "you should never buy a Toyota.. they only retain 58% of their value after 3 years.... Everyone should buy a Honda because it retains 61% of its value after 3 years"

Do the resale restrictions at Riviera slightly impair the resale value? Sure, maybe slightly. Maybe not, the data isn't very conclusive yet.
Is there any evidence whatsoever that Riviera resale is worthless? No, no evidence.

So buy where you want to stay. Buying RIviera, whether direct or resale, will indeed provide you Disney vacations at a nice discount. And that discount will be better than a lot of the other resorts, due to the better price point, longer contract, etc.
For example, there is no question that buying Riviera is a better "financial deal" right now than buying a 2042 resort. The math really isn't deniable there. So even if we believed that re-sale value will face a moderate impairment, it would still be a better deal than a 2042 resort. (Because the 2042 resorts will be worthless in less than 20 years, while the Riviera will be worth something).

So buy where you want to stay. Full stop.

 

[DonMacGregor]

So buy where you want to stay. Full stop.

Unless that’s at Riviera, apparently…

 

[RoseGold]

We can all agree the mouse always wins. Thanks Bob!

 

[havoc315]

Unless that’s at Riviera, apparently…

My theory is that there are people who like buying re-sale who, understandably, hate the Riviera resale restrictions. But instead of just saying, "I hate the resale restrictions so I won't buy re-sale at Riviera"... they want to convince everyone else that they shouldn't buy there either. As if they believe they can force sales at Riviera to tank, and then Disney won't impose the restrictions in the future.

 

[DonMacGregor]

My theory is that there are people who like buying re-sale who, understandably, hate the Riviera resale restrictions. But instead of just saying, "I hate the resale restrictions so I won't buy re-sale at Riviera"... they want to convince everyone else that they shouldn't buy there either. As if they believe they can force sales at Riviera to tank, and then Disney won't impose the restrictions in the future.

Maybe they should stick a windmill on the roof, and rename the resort “La Mancha”…

 

[Jlo85]

I have no stake in whether Riviera soars or tanks. I just think some of y'all want to feel good about your purchase. When you're wearing rose-colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags.

It also appears that the contracts are less liquid and harder to sell. Just anecdotally, it seems like they aren't really selling at the pace of other resorts. So, 'buy where you want to stay' becomes a little problematic. What if you really want to buy a future resort you love and can't offload your Riviera contract? But we will see...

There is a little dissonance here too about 'DVC has fundamentally changed for the worse' and 'lets take a wait and see with Riviera'. You can't really have it both ways. If you think DVC is on a downward slide, it's going to take Riviera with it regardless.

 

[havoc315]

I have no stake in whether Riviera soars or tanks. I just think some of y'all want to feel good about your purchase. When you're wearing rose-colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags.

It also appears that the contracts are less liquid and harder to sell. Just anecdotally, it seems like they aren't really selling at the pace of other resorts. So, 'buy where you want to stay' becomes a little problematic. What if you really want to buy a future resort you love and can't offload your Riviera contract? But we will see...

There is a little dissonance here too about 'DVC has fundamentally changed for the worse' and 'lets take a wait and see with Riviera'. You can't really have it both ways. If you think DVC is on a downward slide, it's going to take Riviera with it regardless.

Your anecdotes are unsupported by… evidence.

But as you’re so confident that Riviera will soon be worthless… you even said that in 2035, BWV resale contracts will be selling for more than Riviera contracts…
I’ll make you a bet..
If in 2035, BWV resale contracts cost more than RIV contracts, I’ll buy you 100 BWV points. If, in 2035, RIV contracts are selling at a higher price, you buy me 100 RIV points.

 

[Sandisw]

I have no stake in whether Riviera soars or tanks. I just think some of y'all want to feel good about your purchase. When you're wearing rose-colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags.

It also appears that the contracts are less liquid and harder to sell. Just anecdotally, it seems like they aren't really selling at the pace of other resorts. So, 'buy where you want to stay' becomes a little problematic. What if you really want to buy a future resort you love and can't offload your Riviera contract? But we will see...

There is a little dissonance here too about 'DVC has fundamentally changed for the worse' and 'lets take a wait and see with Riviera'. You can't really have it both ways. If you think DVC is on a downward slide, it's going to take Riviera with it regardless.

I think the fundamental changes could impact resale value down the road and why caution needs to be used when using past data to assume things won't be different.

Not everyone agrees it is for the worse, but it is simply a different enough of a product that the resale market for the L14 may take some level of a hit when more resorts are restricted, and then stabilize again when the majority of the resorts are restricted.

In terms of # of resales at RIV, I think its just too early to see very many out there. It opened in December 2019, and then the pandemic hit, resorts/parks, closed, and international travel was restricted, so many early RIV owners didn't get to even use their contracts until 2021...could be the delay in why more contracts are not for sale yet. That is why its another reason its too early to make any long term conclusions on the resort because not enough sales yet...

The other possibility is that people who have bought the resort love it enough that they haven't wanted to sell it and it won't follow the same trend as previous resorts. I bought from someone in the Navy who never got to use it at all.


VGF sold less points than RIV the last two months. Sales were in the 70K's.....well below what other resorts have sold in the past, including when VGF went on sale years ago. Yet, when RIV saw those kind of sales figures the past few years, it was "those are horrible, and it shows the restrictions are to blame.". It doesn't seem to be a big deal now though when it applies to VGF?

As, I posted, the last year for resale, as a whole, has not been great for many of the resorts, but there only seems to be concern about RIV? Why?

All for discussing trends and such, but let's be fair and not make it seem like RIV is the only resort in the history of DVC that has lost value between direct and resale in the first 3 years. Or, that it selling for more than non restricted resorts like SSR and AKV doesn't mean anything...because it obviously does.

So, no, none of us need to feel better about our purchases because where I am today, I would lose more selling my 150 VGF than I would selling my 125 RIV.

I have said many times to many posters...if RIV resale restrictions bother you and you are okay not staying there, then don't buy there or don't buy direct. But, if it is your top choice and want to own there and stay there, then resale restrictions or not, it should be something you buy, because in the end, DVC is just way too much money to buy something else, and then have regrets later on when you can't stay at the one place you want to be.

ETA: To add, when RIV was first announced and the community was discussing it, the restrictions, and resale value, many of us, myself included, predicted that there was no way it would every sell higher than other DVC resorts, and it would fall immediately below $100....I even said I wouldn't pay $50/point for it....then I went, fell in love, and the rest is history.

And, the first contract sold was for $100/pt to a broker, who flipped it pretty quickly for $140...then we had a few more low $100's...but then it began to sell for more and crept up higher. Plenty of us were very surprised and realized that, even with restrictions, people were willing to pay a decent amount for it, and that the doom/gloom many of us predicted, may not actually come to pass.

 

[Jlo85]

Your anecdotes are unsupported by… evidence.

Evidence is the ROFR thread, but again it's anecdotal. I'm not going to sit there and count all of them. Other Epcot resorts, BLT, and VGF have similar inventory to RIV but are selling quicker. But there's no convincing you, so not going to try.

As, I posted, the last year for resale, as a whole, has not been great for many of the resorts, but there only seems to be concern about RIV? Why?

Because that Riviera is selling for about what CCV was 3 years ago is a red flag. The new, flagship Epcot resort having depressed resale values after 3 years of inflation... it just doesn't make sense. But apparently it does to y'all, and that's fine.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I have no stake in whether Riviera soars or tanks. I just think some of y'all want to feel good about your purchase. When you're wearing rose-colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags.

It also appears that the contracts are less liquid and harder to sell. Just anecdotally, it seems like they aren't really selling at the pace of other resorts. So, 'buy where you want to stay' becomes a little problematic. What if you really want to buy a future resort you love and can't offload your Riviera contract? But we will see...

There is a little dissonance here too about 'DVC has fundamentally changed for the worse' and 'lets take a wait and see with Riviera'. You can't really have it both ways. If you think DVC is on a downward slide, it's going to take Riviera with it regardless.

Have you noticed that that there’s a general sense of positivity regarding DVC on these boards? I can get argumentative, and enjoy the spirited discussion, but am ultimately a WDW and DVC fan. I don’t own Riviera, but I bought direct at VGF and CCV with the specific reason of staying there.

So why the relentless negativity? You‘re trying, obviously unsuccessfully, to make everyone feel bad about buying Riviera. Why even try to do that in the first place?

 

[Sandisw]

Evidence is the ROFR thread, but again it's anecdotal. I'm not going to sit there and count all of them. Other Epcot resorts, BLT, and VGF have similar inventory to RIV but are selling quicker. But there's no convincing you, so not going to try.

Because that Riviera is selling for about what CCV was 3 years ago is a red flag. The new, flagship Epcot resort having depressed resale values after 3 years of inflation... it just doesn't make sense. But apparently it does to y'all, and that's fine.

There are 8 RIV, 17 BLT, and 20 VGF all for sale at DVC Resale Market...so there really are not as many RIV for sale as there are other resorts, and that very well could be why you see more sales reported here.

Am I understanding you that the only info that matters regarding resale right now is that RIV is selling for similar values of CCV three years ago but VGF, the flagship resort of MK losing about 10% of its resale value in the last year, is fine?

Which goes back to the point that RIV's current value may not be solely because of restrictions when many other resorts that don't have them have seen values depressed at a far greater rate in the last year than RIV. Something caused those drops, and whatever that was, may also be contributing to why RIV stayed flat...

 

[Jlo85]

Have you noticed that that there’s a general sense of positivity regarding DVC on these boards? I can get argumentative, and enjoy the spirited discussion, but am ultimately a WDW and DVC fan. I don’t own Riviera, but I bought direct at VGF and CCV with the specific reason of staying there.

So why the relentless negativity? You‘re trying, obviously unsuccessfully, to make everyone feel bad about buying Riviera. Why even try to do that in the first place?

Honestly, it feels like this thread has it's opinion and it's not open to any disagreement. Y'all have made me feel defensive and ganged-up on since I started posting, so maybe check yourself? I feel like I might disagree, but I don't think I've been rude about it. I feel like you, and some others, have.

But don't worry, I'm going to delete my registration. So, you can have your 'positivity' back.

 

[havoc315]

Evidence is the ROFR thread, but again it's anecdotal. I'm not going to sit there and count all of them. Other Epcot resorts, BLT, and VGF have similar inventory to RIV but are selling quicker. But there's no convincing you, so not going to try.

??? ROFR thread doesn’t show when a sale was listed or sold. Only shows when a contract was entered and cleared. And RIV inventory remains lower than most resorts — because it’s newer. For example, dvcresalemarket lists 20 RIV listing, of which 2 have accepted offers— Boardwalk has 28 listings, with 2 accepted offers. VGF has 29 listings, of which 2 are accepted. Etc

What’s notable — you can actually see the listing dates. The accepted offers on RIV came quick… August listings.
Some of the Boardwalk accepted offers are really old— listings that sat for 4+ months.

Because that Riviera is selling for about what CCV was 3 years ago is a red flag. The new, flagship Epcot resort having depressed resale values after 3 years of inflation... it just doesn't make sense. But apparently it does to y'all, and that's fine.

You still don’t understand the relationship between direct price and resale price… the effect of ROFR, etc.

 

[havoc315]

Honestly, it feels like this thread has it's opinion

Opinion is fine. You misrepresent actual data… and then try to present your opinions, based on misrepresented data, as if they are facts.

Fact — the resale data for Riv is pretty consistent with other resorts, maybe a tiny bit worse.

You have this opinion that — contrary to the evidence — resale of Riviera will completely collapse. That in 2040, Boardwalk resale will be higher than Riviera. It’s a pretty extreme opinion… but if you want to couch it as opinion… ok, go for it. But then you misrepresent the data to try to “prove” that the unsupported opinion is actually fact.

and it's not open to any disagreement. Y'all have made me feel defensive and ganged-up on since I started posting, so maybe check yourself? I feel like I might disagree, but I don't think I've been rude about it. I feel like you, and some others, have.

But don't worry, I'm going to delete my registration. So, you can have your 'positivity' back.

 

[pianomanzano]

Honestly, it feels like this thread has it's opinion and it's not open to any disagreement. Y'all have made me feel defensive and ganged-up on since I started posting, so maybe check yourself? I feel like I might disagree, but I don't think I've been rude about it. I feel like you, and some others, have.

But don't worry, I'm going to delete my registration. So, you can have your 'positivity' back.

To be fair, people are only pointing out incorrect things you posted or a counterpoint to the same data you present. For instance, those inventory stats in your last post isn't correct (just check any listings aggregator, all those other resorts you mentioned have 1.5 to 3 times the amount of listings as RIV). You doubled down on these "facts" and assertions, implied people were losers for buying Riviera, and aren't shy about wanting to gloat when RIV tanks. So it's only natural that people are going to react the way the do. I don't need any rose colored lenses to feel good about my purchase, it's a timeshare for crying out loud, all I need are the memories I've made with my family so far and the ones to come for the next 47 years.

 

[havoc315]

There are 8 RIV, 17 BLT, and 20 VGF all for sale at DVC Resale Market...so there really are not as many RIV for sale as there are other resorts, and that very well could be why you see more sales reported here.

Am I understanding you that the only info that matters regarding resale right now is that RIV is selling for similar values of CCV three years ago but VGF, the flagship resort of MK losing about 10% of its resale value in the last year, is fine?

Which goes back to the point that RIV's current value may not be solely because of restrictions when many other resorts that don't have them have seen values depressed at a far greater rate in the last year than RIV. Something caused those drops, and whatever that was, may also be contributing to why RIV stayed flat...

A new flatscreen TV sells for less than flatscreen TVs 10 years ago! There must be something wrong with the new models!

 

[Sandisw]

Honestly, it feels like this thread has it's opinion and it's not open to any disagreement. Y'all have made me feel defensive and ganged-up on since I started posting, so maybe check yourself? I feel like I might disagree, but I don't think I've been rude about it. I feel like you, and some others, have.

But don't worry, I'm going to delete my registration. So, you can have your 'positivity' back.

Sorry if you felt ganged up on but you posted some info/ideas/data that allowed others to post info that framed it differently. I think the thread has stayed open to good discussion about not only RIV and restrictions, but resale market in general and what could and could not happen.

RIV is the only resort with restrictions but it is not the only resort that is being impacted in today's market and I will speak for myself, but I posted some honest questions to you about your thoughts regarding what is happening to other resorts and would have enjoyed getting your take...

As I shared, I had your opinion regarding the impact of resale restrictions on RIV's resale value a few years ago, but have had to amend my thinking...and not because I am an owner... that what I thought would happen right out of the gate did not happen because the info out there supports its not as bad right now as I predicted. Now, does that mean that resale for RIV will never tank?

Of course not, but given that so many other resorts in the last year have struggled to maintain resale value, what we are seeing right now for RIV is simply not any more concerning to some of us than what we are seeing happen to VGF... at least for me, since those are two of the three resorts that I own.

In the end, your opinion right now is RIV's value is tanking and my opinion is it is holding its own against the other resorts given today's climate. In another few years, when more contracts are sold, and more resorts are announced with or without restrictions, the market will determine what its truth worth will be and we will all be able to update our thoughts then.

We have all had time to share plenty of posts with our thoughts on past and current data regarding RIV, resale values, and everything in between...good time to close the thread!