Future Recession: Which DVC resale Resorts drop fastest

[VGCgroupie]

There's another part of this that's somewhat invisible. Full disclosure - I haven't looked into this in a while. But I believe that some non-Disney timeshares (such as marriott's) still can use Interval International to transfer non-DVC points to get a DVC room. So there's a percentage of points that being swapped out (for cruises, etc.), but also some points that are being swapped in. So the 20% with this may be a net 15% or even 10%. I really have no idea how much comes into the system this way.

Yep I see people getting deals on DVC rooms with other timeshare points all the time.

 

[Sandisw]

There's another part of this that's somewhat invisible. Full disclosure - I haven't looked into this in a while. But I believe that some non-Disney timeshares (such as marriott's) still can use Interval International to transfer non-DVC points to get a DVC room. So there's a percentage of points that being swapped out (for cruises, etc.), but also some points that are being swapped in. So the 20% with this may be a net 15% or even 10%. I really have no idea how much comes into the system this way.

The board simply said that 20% of inventory is moved out of points bookings because of trades.

I took that to mean both for the Disney collection, etc and for owners who trade via II.

The ones trading in are getting the rooms because DVC owners traded out.

 

[DisneyFanSea]

As a Poly and VDH owner looking for even more resale deals in the next few years, I’m hoping those two hit under $100/pt

But seriously the real magic 8 ball question is if a recession will eliminate the need to walk a reservation and tame down the park crowds.

 

[maui22]

But seriously the real magic 8 ball question is if a recession will eliminate the need to walk a reservation and tame down the park crowds.

If 9/11, dot com crash, Great Recession, and pandemic are indicators…

The answer in those cases was yes. Happily booked BCV during F&W twice during Great Recession (using BLT points). Our experience has been that’s the easiest time to try hard to get rooms.

CMs went out of their way to make people feel special. The parks were way down and the parks depended on visitors.

People were upgraded from CBR to GF, All Stars to SSR 1BRs, and many more stories from Great Recession. They wanted to make sure guests went home and shared their magical vacations with as many people as possible.

 

[CraigInPA]

But seriously the real magic 8 ball question is if a recession will eliminate the need to walk a reservation and tame down the park crowds.

At Disney's current day pricing, I'd expect to see a significant drop in park crowds from locals coming to the park. I'd also expect to see DVC members saying "I only need to visit each park once during my week long visit" so that will also cut the park crowds. Sure, there are a lot of DVC members that also have annual passes, but we have to remember those of us on this board are not your average DVC member. And, who is to say that those DVC members will choose to renew their annual passes? For years, my wife and I would go to the park every day, sometimes with a ticket and sometimes with an annual pass. The last few trips, we put "skip the park days" into our vacation, where we did other things (such as touring various hotels to see their Christmas decorations, shopping at Disney Springs, or going to Universal).

And, I'd expect to see a lot of discounting of rooms. During the dot com bust of 2002 and all the way through the 2008-2010 recession, I was getting offers of 30-35% off deluxe resort rooms. Those huge discounts forestalled my decision to buy DVC for almost a decade. This deep discounting to fill rooms may re-occur, leading to a flattening or even a decline in DVC resale prices, and greater "bonus offers" from Disney to entice direct buyers.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

If 9/11, dot com crash, Great Recession, and pandemic are indicators…

The answer in those cases was yes. Happily booked BCV during F&W twice during Great Recession (using BLT points). Our experience has been that’s the easiest time to try hard to get rooms.

CMs went out of their way to make people feel special. The parks were way down and the parks depended on visitors.

People were upgraded from CBR to GF, All Stars to SSR 1BRs, and many more stories from Great Recession. They wanted to make sure guests went home and shared their magical vacations with as many people as

As a Poly and VDH owner looking for even more resale deals in the next few years, I’m hoping those two hit under $100/pt

But seriously the real magic 8 ball question is if a recession will eliminate the need to walk a reservation and tame down the park crowds.

I actually think the current ticket pricing structure has made the parks more crowded, especially made them feel more crowded. Let me explain

Before the pandemic, those that used to stay for a week to 10 days, a very typical time stretch for DVC members, after 3 days the ticket price increase for additional days was pretty minor. Plus, you received 3 advance fast pass selections with your ticket. So our touring plan for an 8 day trip was to buy a full 8 days. We usually left one day unused on our ticket, and maybe spent half the day in the parks. We usually did a nice table service every day at the parks as well. So we actually only spent 3 1/2 days in the parks and never did more than our 3 fast passes rather try and work technology for another fast pass once we used one. We were relaxed in the parks. We rarely pulled out our phones, and if a day was particularly busy or a ride particularly crowed, we passed on it figuring we’d hit it some other day in our trip. We enjoyed going back to the resort for swims and naps even on park days.

Now, an equal ticket price gets you three days at most, you pay a hefty price to add fast passes, and so it tends to psychologically put in this, ‘I’ve got to get as much value as I can out of this expenditure,’ mentality for many of us who bought DVC because of it truly being a long term value proposition over cash stays. I hate this way of doing the parks and rarely go in the parks anymore. And when I bring guests, I only advise buying tickets for 3 days versus length of stay previously.

So, Disney parks are getting less money from me than before. The park experience isn’t the same for many DVC week to 10 day stayers. So will a recession drop crowd levels, sure it will. But IMO the pricing strategy that Disney has transitioned to has materially changed the park experience. It would be a boost to DVC sales and the value of the product if they had a length of stay pass to DVC blue card holders booking week or longer stays and I do not believe would substantially increase the crowd feel at the parks. I’d much rather have that then a couple of year recession downturn.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I actually think the current ticket pricing structure has made the parks more crowded, especially made them feel more crowded. Let me explain

Before the pandemic, those that used to stay for a week to 10 days, a very typical time stretch for DVC members, after 3 days the ticket price increase for additional days was pretty minor. Plus, you received 3 advance fast pass selections with your ticket. So our touring plan for an 8 day trip was to buy a full 8 days. We usually left one day unused on our ticket, and maybe spent half the day in the parks. We usually did a nice table service every day at the parks as well. So we actually only spent 3 1/2 days in the parks and never did more than our 3 fast passes rather try and work technology for another fast pass once we used one. We were relaxed in the parks. We rarely pulled out our phones, and if a day was particularly busy or a ride particularly crowed, we passed on it figuring we’d hit it some other day in our trip. We enjoyed going back to the resort for swims and naps even on park days.

Now, an equal ticket price gets you three days at most, you pay a hefty price to add fast passes, and so it tends to psychologically put in this, ‘I’ve got to get as much value as I can out of this expenditure,’ mentality for many of us who bought DVC because of it truly being a long term value proposition over cash stays. I hate this way of doing the parks and rarely go in the parks anymore. And when I bring guests, I only advise buying tickets for 3 days versus length of stay previously.

So, Disney parks are getting less money from me than before. The park experience isn’t the same for many DVC week to 10 day stayers. So will a recession drop crowd levels, sure it will. But IMO the pricing strategy that Disney has transitioned to has materially changed the park experience. It would be a boost to DVC sales and the value of the product if they had a length of stay pass to DVC blue card holders booking week or longer stays and I do not believe would substantially increase the crowd feel at the parks. I’d much rather have that then a couple of year recession downturn.

And if those ‘DVC length of stay passes’ were only available while staying on direct points by the DVC members themselves, would that be a big hit to the resale market?

 

[808blessing]

We are going to DW for 9 days and parks for 3 days. I decided on the car so Disney is definitely getting less of me. We almost planned for Universal instead (never been) and have thought of selling at least one contract several times This is a result of the ticket prices that have risen exponentially. We can afford it but I choose to save it for elsewhere for now.

 

[maui22]

I actually think the current ticket pricing structure has made the parks more crowded, especially made them feel more crowded. Let me explain

Before the pandemic, those that used to stay for a week to 10 days, a very typical time stretch for DVC members, after 3 days the ticket price increase for additional days was pretty minor. Plus, you received 3 advance fast pass selections with your ticket. So our touring plan for an 8 day trip was to buy a full 8 days. We usually left one day unused on our ticket, and maybe spent half the day in the parks. We usually did a nice table service every day at the parks as well. So we actually only spent 3 1/2 days in the parks and never did more than our 3 fast passes rather try and work technology for another fast pass once we used one. We were relaxed in the parks. We rarely pulled out our phones, and if a day was particularly busy or a ride particularly crowed, we passed on it figuring we’d hit it some other day in our trip. We enjoyed going back to the resort for swims and naps even on park days.

Now, an equal ticket price gets you three days at most, you pay a hefty price to add fast passes, and so it tends to psychologically put in this, ‘I’ve got to get as much value as I can out of this expenditure,’ mentality for many of us who bought DVC because of it truly being a long term value proposition over cash stays. I hate this way of doing the parks and rarely go in the parks anymore. And when I bring guests, I only advise buying tickets for 3 days versus length of stay previously.

So, Disney parks are getting less money from me than before. The park experience isn’t the same for many DVC week to 10 day stayers. So will a recession drop crowd levels, sure it will. But IMO the pricing strategy that Disney has transitioned to has materially changed the park experience. It would be a boost to DVC sales and the value of the product if they had a length of stay pass to DVC blue card holders booking week or longer stays and I do not believe would substantially increase the crowd feel at the parks. I’d much rather have that then a couple of year recession downturn.

I wonder how much of an impact so many moving to Florida has impacted the crowds. For example, DW and I are planning the move in a 1-3 years (plans can change). If we do, we will have an AP. Any day we want to drop by we will.

More locals is a reason DL supposedly increased their AP prices significantly some number of years go. When we were there about a decade ago, parks were dead early but around 10am they became packed. Several people told us it’s the impact of locals. After school teens would go there rather than the mall.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

The economy is cylindrical. There will be a downturn. No one can say exactly when, but there are indicators when it’s more likely. It’s always best to buy low and sell high.

I understand that 2042’s have less time on them. And the heart doesn’t in itself generate $$. Downturns are personal. Those that lose employment get hit, others may not. So even though 2042’s have less remaining time, I would think that more of those who own those resorts may be old enough to have more reliable income streams like pensions and social security. They are also less likely to be financed.

I think the newer resorts will be hit the most for the resale market as they tend to have the youngest average age of buyers and are most likely to be still under a loan to purchase.

Thoughts?

Very insightful - Did not think of this, as i initially thought 2042 resorts followed by SSR, OKW, AKV (not that they are less loved, but they are large and not attached to a park and also RIV (resale restrictions in terms of trading into DVC system). I wonder if DVC rethinks their restrictions at that point as they got too greedy, or they offer a pay to exchange fee for resale buyers of RIV and onward resorts. But if the economy tanks everything falls. 2011 - 2013 everything was low on resale.

 

[IsDVCForMe?]

Probably AKV since I just bought into it.

 

[walt34]

Probably AKV since I just bought into it.

I can relate to that. If you see me in line at the supermarket, choose a different line. I'm certain to have picked the slowest one.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

At Disney's current day pricing, I'd expect to see a significant drop in park crowds from locals coming to the park. I'd also expect to see DVC members saying "I only need to visit each park once during my week long visit" so that will also cut the park crowds. Sure, there are a lot of DVC members that also have annual passes, but we have to remember those of us on this board are not your average DVC member. And, who is to say that those DVC members will choose to renew their annual passes? For years, my wife and I would go to the park every day, sometimes with a ticket and sometimes with an annual pass. The last few trips, we put "skip the park days" into our vacation, where we did other things (such as touring various hotels to see their Christmas decorations, shopping at Disney Springs, or going to Universal).

And, I'd expect to see a lot of discounting of rooms. During the dot com bust of 2002 and all the way through the 2008-2010 recession, I was getting offers of 30-35% off deluxe resort rooms. Those huge discounts forestalled my decision to buy DVC for almost a decade. This deep discounting to fill rooms may re-occur, leading to a flattening or even a decline in DVC resale prices, and greater "bonus offers" from Disney to entice direct buyers.

At Disney's current day pricing, I'd expect to see a significant drop in park crowds from locals coming to the park. I'd also expect to see DVC members saying "I only need to visit each park once during my week long visit" so that will also cut the park crowds. Sure, there are a lot of DVC members that also have annual passes, but we have to remember those of us on this board are not your average DVC member. And, who is to say that those DVC members will choose to renew their annual passes? For years, my wife and I would go to the park every day, sometimes with a ticket and sometimes with an annual pass. The last few trips, we put "skip the park days" into our vacation, where we did other things (such as touring various hotels to see their Christmas decorations, shopping at Disney Springs, or going to Universal).

And, I'd expect to see a lot of discounting of rooms. During the dot com bust of 2002 and all the way through the 2008-2010 recession, I was getting offers of 30-35% off deluxe resort rooms. Those huge discounts forestalled my decision to buy DVC for almost a decade. This deep discounting to fill rooms may re-occur, leading to a flattening or even a decline in DVC resale prices, and greater "bonus offers" from Disney to entice direct buyers.

Disney views the local crowd with the cheaper annual passes as the “back up/stand by”crowd hence the reservation/blackout date system. If they have a rush of vacationers they much prefer those people because they spend more money per visit. Local AP buy a beer and a snack at a kiosk and “hang out” and go home. No LL, no VIP experiences, only occasional table service. These people aren’t going anywhere. They are already budget conscious. The Epcot festival gimmick is for them.

DVC is viewed as backup crowd #2. You have points, you’re paying dues, FL flights are the first to get discounted when travel slows. Odds are you’re coming down, cooking in your room, hanging at the resort focused on the free activities and feel less pressure to gogogo.

If the economy slows they lose the “The Big Family Disney Trip” crowds first. They simply punt the pricy trip with all of the bells and whistles to brighter days.

I find that stat of 59% of DVC direct contracts being financed as insane. You take the savings right out of the purchase with those rates! The direct price is super inflated as it is. Don’t buy this until you can afford it. If you’re financing this you aren’t ready for it yet. Wild! Doesn’t mean you can’t afford to Disney you just shouldn’t be doing it this way.
I do find it interesting that DVC people who go more often than their points allow quickly reach the conclusion that they need more points. It usually makes more sense to just pay cash for that extra trip. Your desire to go more/less will fluctuate and there always seems to be a deal to be had. Why tie up more capital and commit to more dues?

 

[Mirabell Rose]

Disney views the local crowd with the cheaper annual passes as the “back up/stand by”crowd hence the reservation/blackout date system. If they have a rush of vacationers they much prefer those people because they spend more money per visit. Local AP buy a beer and a snack at a kiosk and “hang out” and go home. No LL, no VIP experiences, only occasional table service. These people aren’t going anywhere. They are already budget conscious. The Epcot festival gimmick is for them.

DVC is viewed as backup crowd #2. You have points, you’re paying dues, FL flights are the first to get discounted when travel slows. Odds are you’re coming down, cooking in your room, hanging at the resort focused on the free activities and feel less pressure to gogogo.

If the economy slows they lose the “The Big Family Disney Trip” crowds first. They simply punt the pricy trip with all of the bells and whistles to brighter days.

I find that stat of 59% of DVC direct contracts being financed as insane. You take the savings right out of the purchase with those rates! The direct price is super inflated as it is. Don’t buy this until you can afford it. If you’re financing this you aren’t ready for it yet. Wild! Doesn’t mean you can’t afford to Disney you just shouldn’t be doing it this way.
I do find it interesting that DVC people who go more often than their points allow quickly reach the conclusion that they need more points. It usually makes more sense to just pay cash for that extra trip. Your desire to go more/less will fluctuate and there always seems to be a deal to be had. Why tie up more capital and commit to more dues?

why tie up more? I remember our trip we first talked with a DVC rep. Cold winter and we were in the warm Florida sun. The day before we talked to a family who was at Disney for the fifth year in a row, although they were not DVC. We asked didn’t they think of going somewhere else? Dad said certainly, but everyone enjoyed Disney and it was just so darn easy.

Some like the familiarity of the same place year after year. Some of the ease has gone away with the loss of luggage service, etc. But as a place to go when it’s cold up north that has a lot to do and wonderful resorts, it makes sense for some to buy more. Perhaps it is seeing that when you have the points you make sure to break away from the work cycle and take off to use them. It’s not a one size fits all, and when you have discretionary capital, why not more in an experience you enjoy? You can’t take any of it with you.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I find that stat of 59% of DVC direct contracts being financed as insane. You take the savings right out of the purchase with those rates!

I agree. I would never recommend buying unless you have savings first to cover emergencies and then a second savings to buy DVC. But I’m probably much more conservative in spending than most.

 

[maui22]

i wonder if there are differences between locals still working and those retired?

While we stayed a month, I worked. Park times were limited to my days off and evenings.

In retirement, I see us popping in any day/time. Even would buy the Incredipass because I want to be at Disney during Christmas. Don’t like the crowds, but if we are not with family, I can’t think of another place I enjoy more for Christmas decorations, etc.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Disney views the local crowd with the cheaper annual passes as the “back up/stand by”crowd hence the reservation/blackout date system. If they have a rush of vacationers they much prefer those people because they spend more money per visit. Local AP buy a beer and a snack at a kiosk and “hang out” and go home. No LL, no VIP experiences, only occasional table service. These people aren’t going anywhere. They are already budget conscious. The Epcot festival gimmick is for them.

DVC is viewed as backup crowd #2. You have points, you’re paying dues, FL flights are the first to get discounted when travel slows. Odds are you’re coming down, cooking in your room, hanging at the resort focused on the free activities and feel less pressure to gogogo.

If the economy slows they lose the “The Big Family Disney Trip” crowds first. They simply punt the pricy trip with all of the bells and whistles to brighter days.

I find that stat of 59% of DVC direct contracts being financed as insane. You take the savings right out of the purchase with those rates! The direct price is super inflated as it is. Don’t buy this until you can afford it. If you’re financing this you aren’t ready for it yet. Wild! Doesn’t mean you can’t afford to Disney you just shouldn’t be doing it this way.
I do find it interesting that DVC people who go more often than their points allow quickly reach the conclusion that they need more points. It usually makes more sense to just pay cash for that extra trip. Your desire to go more/less will fluctuate and there always seems to be a deal to be had. Why tie up more capital and commit to more dues?

I agree with the first half. But I don’t necessarily agree nobody should finance. What your research doesn’t show is how fast people pay off their contracts. They may needs some months to move money around and may finance on a temporary basis when a good deal comes along (I’m guilty of that here; had a 90 day delayed close and paid off my contracts about 90 days after that. Financing just smoothed out my options and let me sell 2 resale contracts for a good price).

I do agree that maybe a cash trip would save money if it’s just a now and then thing. People probably should take full advantage of one time use points before they ever consider adding on, and of course consider your personal long term goals. DVC is really fun, and people like the idea of owning somewhere, so it’s easy to get wrapped up in getting more points.

 

[atthebeachclub]

The day before we talked to a family who was at Disney for the fifth year in a row, although they were not DVC. We asked didn’t they think of going somewhere else? Dad said certainly, but everyone enjoyed Disney and it was just so darn easy.

This is probably the main reason I bought DVC. Easy vacation with warm winter weather, safe for solo travel if ever wanted, familiar, everyone has fun, and lots of kind people! Plus I don’t have the maintenance or worry of a vacation home.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

i wonder if there are differences between locals still working and those retired?

While we stayed a month, I worked. Park times were limited to my days off and evenings.

In retirement, I see us popping in any day/time. Even would buy the Incredipass because I want to be at Disney during Christmas. Don’t like the crowds, but if we are not with family, I can’t think of another place I enjoy more for Christmas decorations, etc.

From my DISer friends who moved down there for the purposes of being able to go to the parks whenever (their jobs were remote they could have lived anywhere) they visit the parks less now that they are locals. It's for what the PP mentioned for a lot of it, crowds and hassles of driving to get there, parking, etc. One couple almost exclusively avoids MK now because they don't like the crowds and parking at TTC, they mostly go to AK and DHS because Epcot also holds quite a bit less appeal. When they do go it's normally for only a few hours at a time, when they toured the parks with us in September that was the longest they had been in the parks in forever having met us for the evening in MK and then toured from like 9am to 7pm at Epcot the following day.

The other is a CM (and has DVC) and they do visit the parks even when they are off work but less than they thought they would since moving down there.

I think for most people they overestimate how much they will go to the parks, retirement status or not, eventually the realities of the park going experience kick in when you're no longer on a trip. Stay onsite is not the same as living off site and driving to the parks.

 

[Carouselofplanning]

I agree with the first half. But I don’t necessarily agree nobody should finance. What your research doesn’t show is how fast people pay off their contracts. They may needs some months to move money around and may finance on a temporary basis when a good deal comes along (I’m guilty of that here; had a 90 day delayed close and paid off my contracts about 90 days after that. Financing just smoothed out my options and let me sell 2 resale contracts for a good price).

I do agree that maybe a cash trip would save money if it’s just a now and then thing. People probably should take full advantage of one time use points before they ever consider adding on, and of course consider your personal long term goals. DVC is really fun, and people like the idea of owning somewhere, so it’s easy to get wrapped up in getting more points.

If the loan is a short term bridge and you KNOW the funds are coming but you see a deal that might not be there in 6-12 months when your money comes through then I’m with you, finance away and pay it off fast. However, everything you see in the financial news suggests Americans generally manage their finances poorly and tend to just run up their debt. I have a feeling the bulk of the financing is the latter all caught up on Pixie dust.

As for the buy more/pay cash for additional stays, you’re right. It completely depends on your situation. Are you sure this is a long term surge in visit frequency? Or is this a phase for a few years while the kids are in that sweet spot? There are plenty of people in both situations, but DVC people tend to just go buy more points when that may end up not being the smarter decision. 100% agree go the OTUP route and see if that scratches the itch before plunking down thousands of dollars for more points and increased dues…for decades. Except for a select week here and there, there is always a deluxe hotel or two on sale not to mention a newly refurbished moderate that will make your family very happy.