Future Recession: Which DVC resale Resorts drop fastest

[VGCgroupie]

There's another part of this that's somewhat invisible. Full disclosure - I haven't looked into this in a while. But I believe that some non-Disney timeshares (such as marriott's) still can use Interval International to transfer non-DVC points to get a DVC room. So there's a percentage of points that being swapped out (for cruises, etc.), but also some points that are being swapped in. So the 20% with this may be a net 15% or even 10%. I really have no idea how much comes into the system this way.

Yep I see people getting deals on DVC rooms with other timeshare points all the time.

 

[Sandisw]

There's another part of this that's somewhat invisible. Full disclosure - I haven't looked into this in a while. But I believe that some non-Disney timeshares (such as marriott's) still can use Interval International to transfer non-DVC points to get a DVC room. So there's a percentage of points that being swapped out (for cruises, etc.), but also some points that are being swapped in. So the 20% with this may be a net 15% or even 10%. I really have no idea how much comes into the system this way.

The board simply said that 20% of inventory is moved out of points bookings because of trades.

I took that to mean both for the Disney collection, etc and for owners who trade via II.

The ones trading in are getting the rooms because DVC owners traded out.

 

[DisneyFanSea]

As a Poly and VDH owner looking for even more resale deals in the next few years, I’m hoping those two hit under $100/pt

But seriously the real magic 8 ball question is if a recession will eliminate the need to walk a reservation and tame down the park crowds.

 

[maui22]

But seriously the real magic 8 ball question is if a recession will eliminate the need to walk a reservation and tame down the park crowds.

If 9/11, dot com crash, Great Recession, and pandemic are indicators…

The answer in those cases was yes. Happily booked BCV during F&W twice during Great Recession (using BLT points). Our experience has been that’s the easiest time to try hard to get rooms.

CMs went out of their way to make people feel special. The parks were way down and the parks depended on visitors.

People were upgraded from CBR to GF, All Stars to SSR 1BRs, and many more stories from Great Recession. They wanted to make sure guests went home and shared their magical vacations with as many people as possible.

 

[CraigInPA]

But seriously the real magic 8 ball question is if a recession will eliminate the need to walk a reservation and tame down the park crowds.

At Disney's current day pricing, I'd expect to see a significant drop in park crowds from locals coming to the park. I'd also expect to see DVC members saying "I only need to visit each park once during my week long visit" so that will also cut the park crowds. Sure, there are a lot of DVC members that also have annual passes, but we have to remember those of us on this board are not your average DVC member. And, who is to say that those DVC members will choose to renew their annual passes? For years, my wife and I would go to the park every day, sometimes with a ticket and sometimes with an annual pass. The last few trips, we put "skip the park days" into our vacation, where we did other things (such as touring various hotels to see their Christmas decorations, shopping at Disney Springs, or going to Universal).

And, I'd expect to see a lot of discounting of rooms. During the dot com bust of 2002 and all the way through the 2008-2010 recession, I was getting offers of 30-35% off deluxe resort rooms. Those huge discounts forestalled my decision to buy DVC for almost a decade. This deep discounting to fill rooms may re-occur, leading to a flattening or even a decline in DVC resale prices, and greater "bonus offers" from Disney to entice direct buyers.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

If 9/11, dot com crash, Great Recession, and pandemic are indicators…

The answer in those cases was yes. Happily booked BCV during F&W twice during Great Recession (using BLT points). Our experience has been that’s the easiest time to try hard to get rooms.

CMs went out of their way to make people feel special. The parks were way down and the parks depended on visitors.

People were upgraded from CBR to GF, All Stars to SSR 1BRs, and many more stories from Great Recession. They wanted to make sure guests went home and shared their magical vacations with as many people as

As a Poly and VDH owner looking for even more resale deals in the next few years, I’m hoping those two hit under $100/pt

But seriously the real magic 8 ball question is if a recession will eliminate the need to walk a reservation and tame down the park crowds.

I actually think the current ticket pricing structure has made the parks more crowded, especially made them feel more crowded. Let me explain

Before the pandemic, those that used to stay for a week to 10 days, a very typical time stretch for DVC members, after 3 days the ticket price increase for additional days was pretty minor. Plus, you received 3 advance fast pass selections with your ticket. So our touring plan for an 8 day trip was to buy a full 8 days. We usually left one day unused on our ticket, and maybe spent half the day in the parks. We usually did a nice table service every day at the parks as well. So we actually only spent 3 1/2 days in the parks and never did more than our 3 fast passes rather try and work technology for another fast pass once we used one. We were relaxed in the parks. We rarely pulled out our phones, and if a day was particularly busy or a ride particularly crowed, we passed on it figuring we’d hit it some other day in our trip. We enjoyed going back to the resort for swims and naps even on park days.

Now, an equal ticket price gets you three days at most, you pay a hefty price to add fast passes, and so it tends to psychologically put in this, ‘I’ve got to get as much value as I can out of this expenditure,’ mentality for many of us who bought DVC because of it truly being a long term value proposition over cash stays. I hate this way of doing the parks and rarely go in the parks anymore. And when I bring guests, I only advise buying tickets for 3 days versus length of stay previously.

So, Disney parks are getting less money from me than before. The park experience isn’t the same for many DVC week to 10 day stayers. So will a recession drop crowd levels, sure it will. But IMO the pricing strategy that Disney has transitioned to has materially changed the park experience. It would be a boost to DVC sales and the value of the product if they had a length of stay pass to DVC blue card holders booking week or longer stays and I do not believe would substantially increase the crowd feel at the parks. I’d much rather have that then a couple of year recession downturn.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I actually think the current ticket pricing structure has made the parks more crowded, especially made them feel more crowded. Let me explain

Before the pandemic, those that used to stay for a week to 10 days, a very typical time stretch for DVC members, after 3 days the ticket price increase for additional days was pretty minor. Plus, you received 3 advance fast pass selections with your ticket. So our touring plan for an 8 day trip was to buy a full 8 days. We usually left one day unused on our ticket, and maybe spent half the day in the parks. We usually did a nice table service every day at the parks as well. So we actually only spent 3 1/2 days in the parks and never did more than our 3 fast passes rather try and work technology for another fast pass once we used one. We were relaxed in the parks. We rarely pulled out our phones, and if a day was particularly busy or a ride particularly crowed, we passed on it figuring we’d hit it some other day in our trip. We enjoyed going back to the resort for swims and naps even on park days.

Now, an equal ticket price gets you three days at most, you pay a hefty price to add fast passes, and so it tends to psychologically put in this, ‘I’ve got to get as much value as I can out of this expenditure,’ mentality for many of us who bought DVC because of it truly being a long term value proposition over cash stays. I hate this way of doing the parks and rarely go in the parks anymore. And when I bring guests, I only advise buying tickets for 3 days versus length of stay previously.

So, Disney parks are getting less money from me than before. The park experience isn’t the same for many DVC week to 10 day stayers. So will a recession drop crowd levels, sure it will. But IMO the pricing strategy that Disney has transitioned to has materially changed the park experience. It would be a boost to DVC sales and the value of the product if they had a length of stay pass to DVC blue card holders booking week or longer stays and I do not believe would substantially increase the crowd feel at the parks. I’d much rather have that then a couple of year recession downturn.

And if those ‘DVC length of stay passes’ were only available while staying on direct points by the DVC members themselves, would that be a big hit to the resale market?