For years, the only
DVC property was the original Vacation Club, now OKW. Since the recognition by TWDC that timeshares can be a very profitable use of vacant land, there has been a push to open a resort every few years. DVD is clearly watching projections of how quickly a new resort will sell out, and planning on a new one to open up right before that time.
Of course, there was an epic "miss" on Aulani, which is still selling a decade after opening. None of the people who made that decision are still around, so they are a convenient scapegoat for the failure of Aulani to sell out in the 3 years that a typical new DVC resort sells.
With the size of RIV, I think they were probably originally projecting a 4 year sell through. That put REF into a 4 year build cycle. To hedge their bet, REF is half hotel. To ensure that RIV and REF wouldn't overlap too much, they could merely choose not to declare DVC inventory and use it as hotel rooms. This strategy hides any potential failure of RIV to sell out on time.
Now, we're into a new world. Will WDW immediately bounce back and zoom to full occupancy, or will the massive unemployment caused by the pandemic cause rooms to be empty, and thus make them question the need for a new hotel? Will the $40M loss per day stretching over months cause TWDC to scale back on hotel development to conserve cash?
My personal opinion is that TWDC is in a wait and see mode. They've temporarily halted some construction projects to conserve cash. If there is a real recession, or this pandemic runs for months more, you can be sure that REF will stay an empty lot until there is a demand for hotel rooms. It could be months of delay, or it could be years. REF won't be "half built" as a DVC only resort. They need the hotel side to make the rest of the amenities and infrastructure viable.
