I have stayed at the Swan twice as a starwood preferred member and not received an upgrade. Both were great rooms with a balcony and we had a wonderful time.
Over 10 stays at the Dolphin we were upgraded twice, both times to a room with a balcony - one of those was to an Epcot view, fantastic! The two times we got the upgrade I had the SP Gold the other times just the SP.
I always pay for and reserve what I need/want for the trip. If I get an upgrade its a surprise and I will enjoy it, if not I don't worry about what I never had, kwim?
FTR after many, many, many stays at the WDW resorts, all categories I have never gotten an upgrade and sometimes not even the room I paid for. I got tired of having to beg for what I needed and was willing to pay for, including fridge and coffee maker so now we stay at the Dolphin if we possible can. Anyway - that's another subject.
TJ