bcrook, could you add a link to this post to the first post. It is a more accurate analysis to the discussion as the origional analysis that you linked was based on only resort guest being able to use FP+.
I seriously don't see how, once FP+ is fully implemented, they will be able to hold ANY back for same day. The Math just doesn't support the ability to do that.
Take the example of Space Mountain. My initial analysis was based on only resort guests being able to use FP+. I've revised that analysis below to reflect everyone visiting WDW being able to use FP+
Assumptions:
Park open from 9am - midnight : 15 hours
Ride operating at 90% efficiency
FPs take approx 80% of the ride capacity
Park Capacity : 100k.
Park is 75% full
33% of guest want a SpaM FP+
Only 75% of them book SpaM FP+.
THRC (Theoricial Hourly Ride Capacity) : 2000
Actual Hourly Ride Capacity : 1800
Daily Ride Capacity : 27k
Total FPs available : 21.6k
Total Guests : 75k
Guests wanting FP+ for SpaM : 24.75k
Number of FPs that they are short : 3.15k
If you hold some back for day of you create one of two scenarios. 1) Some people get an advanced FP+ for SpaM, then get another one the day of. or 2) People who get an advanced FP+ for SpaM can't get one day of. If that is the scenario, they why not make them all available for advanced reservations? I just don't see how FP and FP+ can coexist.
Here is an example with Epcot:
Epcot FP Analysis
These numbers are based on high season operating hours.
To summarize:
Attraction / Ride Capacity / #FPs
Soarin' / 24k / 19.2k
Test Track / 27k / 21.6k
Mission Space / 26k / 21k
Total FPs avaliable (for the headliners) at Epcot on a high season day :
61.8k.
Park capacity for Epcot is somewhere around 75k (probably bigger). It's true that a lot of people won't want to ride all three, but it is a pretty safe bet that everyone will want to ride at least one of the three.