FP+ Let's look at the math...

[Planogirl]

Ah, the obvious.


I'll tell you what I found interesting. I was just at Disney over Princess weekend. We showed up for our Soarin' FP at 12:27 pm. Our actual FP time was 11:40 to 12:40. There was a line of people probably 30 deep waiting about 10 feet from the actual entrance of the FP queue.

So I walked up with our bands, and our good FPs, for 12:27 pm, and started to scan and go into the queue, per the CM instructions waving me on through.

Apparently the line of people waiting had FPs that didn't start until 12:30 pm. Then a few of them started complaining... "why are they cutting the line?" "It doesn't start until 12:30". I'm like, "mine started at 11:40... have a nice day".

Two things I don't get here, why would you create and stand in a line before your actual FP time like this, and why would you confront someone "going ahead" of you if they have a valid FP? The whole point of the FP is so you can wait in line less, not more. They're waiting in line, to enter the FP queue, to wait in another line.

I think scenarios like this only add to the line problem. Did people do this before with paper FP? I never really used paper FP so I'm not sure if this was a common occurrence.

Anyway, this is what happens if everybody shows up at once for the exact time their FP starts. I know they stagger some of the times, but I think they need to stagger them more.

They did that with legacy fastpasses too. It always blew my mind because I'd rather be doing anything else than waiting for my fastpass window to open.

Some of the prior posts hurt my head too but I wonder about something. I might have missed this but wouldn't the system automatically assigning FP+ to all users whether they want them or not in effect limit the number of fastpasses available? In other words, if Joe Traveler never uses fastpasses and still won't, wouldn't the system assign him three slots right now instead of the -0- that he would use before?

ETA: Bad assumption on my part here. Assume Joe did sign up for MDE and only wanted one FP+....

 

[AmyB2006]

Or shop. Don't forget about shopping.

Anyone seeing the trend yet?

They do have some pretty good margaritas right around there.

LOL

 

[AmyB2006]

They did that with legacy fastpasses too. It always blew my mind because I'd rather be doing anything else than waiting for my fastpass window to open.

Some of the prior posts hurt my head too but I wonder about something. I might have missed this but wouldn't the system automatically assigning FP+ to all users whether they want them or not in effect limit the number of fastpasses available? In other words, if Joe Traveler never uses fastpasses and still won't, wouldn't the system assign him three slots right now instead of the -0- that he would use before?

Joe Traveler would have to go in and pick at least one FP that he did want, then it would assign him the other two automatically. Which, you can go back in and cancel but... p.i.t.a.

But it won't just assign him three automatically. Is that what you're asking?

 

[sharonabe]

They did that with legacy fastpasses too. It always blew my mind because I'd rather be doing anything else than waiting for my fastpass window to open.

Some of the prior posts hurt my head too but I wonder about something. I might have missed this but wouldn't the system automatically assigning FP+ to all users whether they want them or not in effect limit the number of fastpasses available? In other words, if Joe Traveler never uses fastpasses and still won't, wouldn't the system assign him three slots right now instead of the -0- that he would use before?

The system isn't automatically assigning FP+. You still have to "sign up" or make your own reservations via MDE or the kiosks in the park. So Joe Traveler will never get or use a FP.

 

[Planogirl]

Joe Traveler would have to go in and pick at least one FP that he did want, then it would assign him the other two automatically. Which, you can go back in and cancel but... p.i.t.a.

But it won't just assign him three automatically. Is that what you're asking?

The system isn't automatically assigning FP+. You still have to "sign up" or make your own reservations via MDE or the kiosks in the park. So Joe Traveler will never get or use a FP.

I should have been more specific and not so general. I was wrong about something too so it's a good thing that I'm asking about this.

I assumed that Joe did sign up for MDE. I was not aware that he wouldn't be assigned 3 fastpasses if he did that but had to pick one first. Thanks for straightening me out.

I guess that my question still applies but to a lesser degree. If Joe got one and didn't want any more, the system would still assign two extra which would take up that space, is that correct?

 

[jerivera]

Two things I don't get here, why would you create and stand in a line before your actual FP time like this, and why would you confront someone "going ahead" of you if they have a valid FP? The whole point of the FP is so you can wait in line less, not more. They're waiting in line, to enter the FP queue, to wait in another line.

Some folk just like taking out their frustration on anything that moves. It's a venting mechanism for them.

It could also be just be the old "I'm special, so I should be allowed to break the rules and I resent even suspecting that somebody else might be breaking them when I can't" attitude.

Or it could also be the old "I demand to be able to use my FP- now at 5:00 p.m. even though the time was for 10:00 a.m." attitude, just expressed in a new way with FP+.

 

[MickeyChix]

Wow the math is killing me. All I know is:

1. It's a new system that's going to take awhile to fully implement without all the hang-ups and kinks. The more data that is collected over a period of time, the sooner some of these things will be addressed;

2. At any other Theme Park in order to skip and go to the head of the lines you have to pay a pretty penny to have that right. Be thankful Disney is trying to come up with a way for all park guests to have this privilege on some of their most popular rides without charging us some more;

3. If you don't like the crowds, or the lines are too long then perhaps you should pick a time of year to visit the parks when it's slower. I'm not saying this to be condescending as I know many families who are very limited with when they are able to go. But if you are limited and have to go when parks are their busiest your going to either get up early and take advantage of EMH to get on the rides that are a must or understand the reality of when you are going.

I think ultimately this is a huge mathematical figure that no one, even Disney at this point can say for sure how the system is or is not working until all variables are considered and all data has been collected. This system is in it's infancy stages so I think we all just need a bit of patience. If your unhappy on how things are going then maybe wait until more of the bugs have been worked out. Most of the people I know who have gone in the last six months though all seem to have more positive things to say vs negative.

 

[ChrisFL]

Or shop. Don't forget about shopping.

Anyone seeing the trend yet?

That was the original reason for Fastpass, not for guest satisfaction, but for increased guest SPENDING

 

[clsteve]

So I walked up with our bands, and our good FPs, for 12:27 pm, and started to scan and go into the queue, per the CM instructions waving me on through.

Apparently the line of people waiting had FPs that didn't start until 12:30 pm. Then a few of them started complaining... "why are they cutting the line?" "It doesn't start until 12:30". I'm like, "mine started at 11:40... have a nice day".

Two things I don't get here, why would you create and stand in a line before your actual FP time like this, and why would you confront someone "going ahead" of you if they have a valid FP?

You can't get a better example of how people don't fit in mathematical equations as a "constant" than this one....

 

[mom2rtk]

3 < 6

Robo should patent that slogan.

 

[amcc]

You are on the right track, only you'd have to make the return windows smaller. So, instead of 1200-100, 1210-110 you would have the first 200 at 1200-1210, second at 1210-1220, etc.

This is one of the things I think Disney might end up tweaking - the actual Fastpass return window. They went from a window that stretched from time of window opening to park close (when you could use it after your window) to a human or machine enforced 60 minutes. If they wanted to control crowd throughput more, they could reduce the window further. Theoretically, every line could be continuously moving filled with 1-5 minutes worth of ride capacity that have been reserved previously for that time period (super Fastpass+). Granted, this leaves no wiggle room for human behavior, breakdowns, technical glitches, etc.

 

[Kristine316]

Wow the math is killing me. All I know is:

1. It's a new system that's going to take awhile to fully implement without all the hang-ups and kinks. The more data that is collected over a period of time, the sooner some of these things will be addressed;

2. At any other Theme Park in order to skip and go to the head of the lines you have to pay a pretty penny to have that right. Be thankful Disney is trying to come up with a way for all park guests to have this privilege on some of their most popular rides without charging us some more;

3. If you don't like the crowds, or the lines are too long then perhaps you should pick a time of year to visit the parks when it's slower. I'm not saying this to be condescending as I know many families who are very limited with when they are able to go. But if you are limited and have to go when parks are their busiest your going to either get up early and take advantage of EMH to get on the rides that are a must or understand the reality of when you are going.

I think ultimately this is a huge mathematical figure that no one, even Disney at this point can say for sure how the system is or is not working until all variables are considered and all data has been collected. This system is in it's infancy stages so I think we all just need a bit of patience. If your unhappy on how things are going then maybe wait until more of the bugs have been worked out. Most of the people I know who have gone in the last six months though all seem to have more positive things to say vs negative.

Personally, I would rather pay that "pretty penny" and get an Unlimited Express Pass and not have to worry about FP's and long lines.
I wish Disney would implement something like that for their guests. As much as Disney charges for their deluxe resorts you would think they would be offered some perks in the parks besides just EMH.

I know some people are very much against this but, I do not understand why.. I mean this is a part of life, many places of business charge for "extas". If you go to a concert you pay more for sitting at the front of the stage, if you stay at a hotel you pay more for the Club Level, if you shop at Sam's you pay a higher membership fee for the better sales and perks. The list goes on and on.

 

[mom2rtk]

This is one of the things I think Disney might end up tweaking - the actual Fastpass return window. They went from a window that stretched from time of window opening to park close (when you could use it after your window) to a human or machine enforced 60 minutes. If they wanted to control crowd throughput more, they could reduce the window further. Theoretically, every line could be continuously moving filled with 1-5 minutes worth of ride capacity that have been reserved previously for that time period (super Fastpass+). Granted, this leaves no wiggle room for human behavior, breakdowns, technical glitches, etc.

..... which is why what you propose won't happen. It could slow the line down even more as group after group has to stop and explain why they just missed their narrow window.

Maybe they could go to a system that allows you to use your FP any time after the window opens, so that if you come back and the line is too long, you can just come back later when it's shorter?

Nah. It would never work.

 

[Silock]

You can ride more than the number of FPs you have. FP just lets you ride those three with little wait. We are one of those families that only used 3 or 4 FP- in a day, but we rode more than those 3 or 4.

The OP mentioned a scenario where you book everything before stepping into the park. That eliminates the possibility of standby. Of course I know that's not the case now. I'm stating why it wouldn't work in the future, either.

 

[MickeyChix]

Personally, I would rather pay that "pretty penny" and get an Unlimited Express Pass and not have to worry about FP's and long lines.
I wish Disney would implement something like that for their guests. As much as Disney charges for their deluxe resorts you would think they would be offered some perks in the parks besides just EMH.

I know some people are very much against this but, I do not understand why.. I mean this is a part of life, many places of business charge for "extas". If you go to a concert you pay more for sitting at the front of the stage, if you stay at a hotel you pay more for the Club Level, if you shop at Sam's you pay a higher membership fee for the better sales and perks. The list goes on and on.

Yes but no one is forcing you to stay in those higher priced resorts. I don't think it's fair at all to pay for those extras seeing as the original price I paid in the first place to get in the door is already substantial. I commend Disney for not doing this and coming up with a way to make it fair for as many as possible to have a chance to get on as many attractions as they can. What I really don't understand is why so many are relying on so many FP in the first place unless they are visiting the parks on high attendance times. I guess we've just been fortunate enough to be able to go during non peak seasons. I've gone in late September, early November, late November/Early December, mid January, and mid April. During these times, we've always arrived at the parks before opening and taken advantage of EMH. By doing so, every time we've been able to hit every ride we wanted and then some, plus be gone with the park in question by 1 or 2pm. Never ever have I walked away thinking how it sucked I only got on 4 rides all day. So it leads me to think that people in general are going more during higher attendance times and/or not hitting the parks first thing in the morning.

One more thing, those passes to get to the front of the line that your talking about are limited--in many cases your paying $55 or more to get to the front of the line 3-4 times and that's it. Unless of course you want to pay more than double that for the unlimited unlimited which I'm not even sure they have.

 

[bcrook]

There are plenty of threads addressing FP+ and the perceived benefits vs. issues. I've been following some of them, as much as I can bear to, but being a bit of a nerd I keep thinking about the math of the situation, and some of the reports we are getting don't seem to add up. For example, there can't be both fewer fastpasses AND longer fastpass lines. I'd like to start a thread that looks at FP+ from a purely logical, mathematical standpoint because I'm sure that is how the Disney team is looking at it.

Let's start with a basic premise. Let's assume both before and after FP+, the number of rides remains the same (more or less) and the number of riders who can ride the ride in an hour stays the same. So if Space Mountain can handle 1500 riders an hour (my made up number), then that is true whether the riders are fastpass riders or standby riders. If we can agree on this, then the next step is to look at the breakdown between FP riders vs. Standby riders.

Let's look at a few scenarios. First, in the days before fastpass, every line was a standby line and you were always at the mercy of the number of people who wanted to ride the ride at the same time you did. Those 1500 people still rode Space Mountain, but they all may have waited 60 minutes to do so. I'm sure everyone will agree that the original FP improved this because it allowed some of those 1500 people to do other things while they waited. Let's say that 20% of the 1500 (300 people) ended up getting fastpasses. Those 300 people only had to wait in line 10 minutes. Even though the remaining line has 1200 people left, they are still being intermingled with the FP riders so they are still waiting 60 minutes each, but overall there was less wait time for the group as a whole. Now, let's look at the opposite extreme. Let's assume that in a not too distant future, everyone has a fastpass to Space Mountain and there are no longer any standby lines. Each of the 1500 people has a virtual spot in line reserved for them and can return to the ride with almost no wait. In this case, the wait time for the group as a whole has drastically been reduced. The two extremes demonstrate how either everyone can wait 60 minutes or everyone can wait for 10 minutes and the same number of riders (1500) ride Space Mountain in that hour.

I have spent a lot of time gathering ride capacity numbers...here is a list. I never figured out that raceway!

Something else to consider is the influx of new riders flooding the queues. As 90% od Disney guests are now accessing FP, people who use to arrive at the parks in the afternoon to simply enjoy the sights and sounds, parades and shows, food and drink, now have three fastpasses in their hands. This leads to higher ride demand. Even with similar attendance the competition for the ride spots has increased.

I have been studying the math for about 18 months now, it doesn't add up at all. The only thing that will make it work is if Disney can convince thousand of guests a day to cut back on their riding and enjoy more swimming, bowling, mini golf, eating, drinking, or other such tomfoolery!

 

[anadyr21]

And if you want to get fancy and all with the math, the Erlang C formula used in telecom could prove useful.

Substitute "Guests" for calls and "Ride Slots" for agents/servers.

The Erlang C formula expresses the probability that an arriving customer will need to queue (as opposed to immediately being served). Erlang C assumes an infinite population of sources, which jointly offer traffic of A erlangs to N servers. However, if all the servers are busy when a request arrives from a source, the request is queued. An unlimited number of requests may be held in the queue in this way simultaneously. This formula calculates the probability of queuing offered traffic, assuming that blocked calls stay in the system until they can be handled. The Erlang C formula assumes that callers never hang up while in queue, that all calls begin and end in the same time period being considered, and that callers never try to call back after having hung up while in queue. These deficiencies make the formula predict that more agents should be used than are really needed to maintain a desired service level.

P_W = {{\frac{A^N}{N!} \frac{N}{N - A}} \over \sum_{i=0}^{N-1} \frac{A^i}{i!} + \frac{A^N}{N!} \frac{N}{N - A}}

where:
A is the total traffic offered in units of erlangs
N is the number of servers
PW is the probability that a customer has to wait for service.

It is assumed that the call arrivals can be modeled by a Poisson process and that call holding times are described by a negative exponential distribution.

This is an excellent example! In a call center situation, based on previous call volume experiences, we can calculate how many calls we expect, and add or subtract the number of agents needed to handle the volume. We are not locked into a maximum number of calls, as long as there are enough agents to handle it. This is where Disney becomes problematic. You are absolutely limited by ride volume. It doesn't matter how or where you distribute Fast Passes. All we're doing is shifting the numbers, to lead to the same capacity. I know there's a term for it in business, where you simply shift the numbers, so that the ledger doesn't look "as bad." So, as noted in the bolded sentence, more agents, or in this case, capacity, is needed.

This is all smoke and mirrors. We're arguing over an unfixable situation, when we really should be arguing why the capacity, in other words, number of rides, has not been increased.

Assuming the OP's original numbers of a ride capacity of 1500, the maximum number you can load is 250 people per 10 minute increments. To a point (and I don't feel like calculating the threshold), it doesn't matter how many Fast Passes you give. Someone is going to be waiting standby at least 30 minutes for the more popular (and slow and/or low loading) rides. Those who figured out the "game" figured out which Fast Passes to pull and when to pull them, so there was rarely more than a 20 minute wait. FP+ eliminated the "loophole" in the game (I know it's not an actual loophole; I couldn't think of a better word). So, those who rarely rode standby before, will be forced to do so. This is not good for them (I'm one of them, by the way). The LONG TERM effect that this will have on either line remains to be seen.

Ultimately, the math is an exercise in futility, because we don't know how many Fast Passes are actually given, or how many Fast Pass holders are allowed per load. This doesn't count all of the other variables that others have already mentioned. I'm sure everything looked great on paper, but as a wise (fictional) man once said, "Life finds a way."

 

[mom2rtk]

The only thing that will make it work is if Disney can convince thousand of guests a day to cut back on their riding and enjoy more swimming, bowling, mini golf, eating, drinking, or other such tomfoolery!

All of those things (except swimming) requires that I pay more money on top of what I have already paid for a full day's admission. I can see how this works for an AP holder, but that's just not going to happen for me. I can bowl, mini-golf, eat and drink at home later.

What a win for Disney though if they can get people to forget they already paid for one activity, but leave and go pay for more activities!

 

[bcrook]

All of those things (except swimming) requires that I pay more money on top of what I have already paid for a full day's admission. I can see how this works for an AP holder, but that's just not going to happen for me. I can bowl, mini-golf, eat and drink at home later.

What a win for Disney though if they can get people to forget they already paid for one activity, but leave and go pay for more activities!

Not just swimming, but swimming at a deluxe resort. How about that.

 

[GigiDisneyfreak]

Yes but no one is forcing you to stay in those higher priced resorts. I don't think it's fair at all to pay for those extras seeing as the original price I paid in the first place to get in the door is already substantial. I commend Disney for not doing this and coming up with a way to make it fair for as many as possible to have a chance to get on as many attractions as they can. What I really don't understand is why so many are relying on so many FP in the first place unless they are visiting the parks on high attendance times. I guess we've just been fortunate enough to be able to go during non peak seasons. I've gone in late September, early November, late November/Early December, mid January, and mid April. During these times, we've always arrived at the parks before opening and taken advantage of EMH. By doing so, every time we've been able to hit every ride we wanted and then some, plus be gone with the park in question by 1 or 2pm. Never ever have I walked away thinking how it sucked I only got on 4 rides all day. So it leads me to think that people in general are going more during higher attendance times and/or not hitting the parks first thing in the morning.

One more thing, those passes to get to the front of the line that your talking about are limited--in many cases your paying $55 or more to get to the front of the line 3-4 times and that's it. Unless of course you want to pay more than double that for the unlimited unlimited which I'm not even sure they have.

I agree with you. When you stay at a moderate resort, you are paying for a few extra amenities than a value, when you stay at a deluxe you are paying for more amenities over the moderates and location. The price to get into the parks is an entirely separate thing. I think the problem is that everyone feels they are entitled to be taken care of immediately and the heck with everyone else (I am not singling out anyone who is posting here) I remember waiting on line 2 hours in the summer for Splash Mountain before there was fast pass.