FP+ "day of" speculation

[dayvewc]

Lots of thought-provoking discussion... I'm starting to think my original theory that off-site will eventually get to pre-book might have been correct after all.

I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken.

The thing that still has me scratching my head is the capacity issue. I agree with the bolded statement above. I don't see any way WDW can supply enough FP+ slots to allow EVERY guest to pre-book. Not and have any left over for "day of" anyway.

It will be very interesting to see how things develop over the next few months.

I think the answer here is in the limits to 3 FP+ per day and the addition of new opportunities (Parades, fireworks, rides that didn't used to have FP+) to the pool. I believe that Disney has created enough to give each guest 3 a day, but no guarantees that they are "high demand". So, you might get a FP for COP, TTA, and Stitch, but you'll get 3.

 

[TJLG]

I think the fastpass plus system is going to send me on the fast track to Universal.We go to WDW about every 2 years. We scrimp and save to do this and always stay off sit to save money. I feel like WDW is telling me "You are not good enough to be around our precious rich guest" As a nurse I am good enough to clean up after you in the hospital when you are sick but we don't want to be around the little people on vacation.

 

[magicbob]

Me too. I just can't get my head around how 12,000 TSM FP's in a day can be distributed to 30,000 people.

Not to mention the thousands of notional "day of" FP+ slots they need to please guests who didn't pre-book or want to re-schedule.

I think the answer here is in the limits to 3 FP+ per day and the addition of new opportunities (Parades, fireworks, rides that didn't used to have FP+) to the pool. I believe that Disney has created enough to give each guest 3 a day, but no guarantees that they are "high demand". So, you might get a FP for COP, TTA, and Stitch, but you'll get 3.

I agree that rationing FPs (3 per guest), tiering, and adding FP for rides that don't need it (although they might before long), are factors that mitigate the capacity deficit. But I just don't think that's enough to allow off-site to pre-book and not run out days or weeks (potentially months) ahead of time.

And even if off-site does NOT get to pre-book, then the concern is that all of the popular ride FP+s will be gone by the time they have a chance to get a FP. So, unless you stay onsite, your only FP+ choices may be COP, TTA, and Stitch. If off-site guests want to ride the mountains, get in line and lose 3-4 hours of your day.

I know I should probably just bite my tongue (don't want to infect my own very balanced thread with negativity), but I think this is potentially one of the major flaws with FP+. In the past, people complained that FPs ran out by lunchtime and people arriving then couldn't get any. But whether you were on-site or off-site, you had the option of arriving early and scoring those FPs. FP+ may potentially cause off-site guests to get no decent FPs (just three lame ones) even if they arrive at RD.

 

[ArwenMarie]

The only argument I can see for prebooking for offsite is locking people into their plans.

Capacity is a good point for not allowing prebooking for offsite though. Having everything all booked up two months ahead? I dunno. I think they want to leave more room for onsite to prebook so it's not such a mad scramble.

The other thing that makes me go back and forth is that they are expending all of this time and energy creating these same-day kiosks. It seems like an unnecessary step if the goal is to eventually allow prebooking for offsite with the app. They could just go from paper to app then, like they did with onsite.

The other thing I keep thinking about is that they still haven't dealt with APs yet. I would think they would be next, now that resort guests will soon be fully on FP+ and the machines are soon going adios.

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I think I'm leaning towards that it stays same-day for offsite non-APs. But, on the bright side, I do think that there will be same-day availability, so it won't be like people are totally locked out.

 

[quest4dl]

I don't think FP+ assumes every guest will pre-book. The capacity is a combination of standby and fastpass.

 

[MonorailCentral]

The only guarantee is that things will be in flux for a while. Disney has a bit more of an idea of what is working vs what is not right now, but there is still a lot of "what happens if we do this?' going on at each step. It will be interesting to see where it goes. I'm sure they imagined it to be an amazing boost to trips and planning, and it just hasn't worked out that way. There are some pluses, but it also hasn't really worked as well in other phases. Not exactly the results you want from a billion dollar project.

 

[afcgirl]

I think the fastpass plus system is going to send me on the fast track to Universal.We go to WDW about every 2 years. We scrimp and save to do this and always stay off sit to save money. I feel like WDW is telling me "You are not good enough to be around our precious rich guest" As a nurse I am good enough to clean up after you in the hospital when you are sick but we don't want to be around the little people on vacation.

Only problem is Universal has been doing the same thing for years, they are no better. If you stay at one of the Universal on site resorts, you get the right to skip to the head of the line (otherwise you have to purchase the right to do so).

Instead of looking at it as class warfare, I think your better argument is that you pay the same amount of money for park tickets as do those who stay at Disney resorts and therefore you should get the same benefits OR be able to pay less. The same argument would hold true for Universal park tickets.

 

[wisblue]

Me too. I just can't get my head around how 12,000 TSM FP's in a day can be distributed to 30,000 people.

First, not everyone in the park on a given day wants to ride TSMM.

Second, with tiering, a number of people who make FP+ reservations in advance will choose something else from that tier.

Third, no matter how much they may be prodded, some guests won't make advance reservations at all.

If Disney holds back some FPs for same day use, anyone who makes their FP+ reservations after those allotted for advance use are gone will have no choice but to choose something else from that tier.

At the end of the day, not everyone in the park (not even everyone who would like to get one) can get a FP for TSMM. Just like it has always been.

 

[Laketravis]

First, not everyone in the park on a given day wants to ride TSMM.

Maybe not everyone, but history shows it's always been more than the attraction can accommodate even when you had to wait until you were actually in the park to pull an FP.

Being able to make your TSM reservation up to 60 days in advance? That will only prove how quickly the attraction gets booked up and is no longer available as an option.

What used to be "All FP's gone by 11am" could turn into "All FP's gone by day 52".

Regardless of which scenario is the final outcome, many of them will disappoint and that's never a good thing.

 

[magicbob]

First, not everyone in the park on a given day wants to ride TSMM.

Second, with tiering, a number of people who make FP+ reservations in advance will choose something else from that tier.

Third, no matter how much they may be prodded, some guests won't make advance reservations at all.

If Disney holds back some FPs for same day use, anyone who makes their FP+ reservations after those allotted for advance use are gone will have no choice but to choose something else from that tier.

At the end of the day, not everyone in the park (not even everyone who would like to get one) can get a FP for TSMM. Just like it has always been.

True. FP+ is not a panacea for the problem of demand exceeding capacity.

 

[NickyKnack]

I keep seeing the argument that on site guests are locked in and off-site aren't because off site guests have "Wheels". Not everyone who stays on property goes without a car. We always stay on property, we never go without a car. And judging from the packed parking lots at the resorts at the end of the night, we're far from alone in that.

From Disney's perspective, on-site guests are pretty much locked in to park attendance.

By sheer definition, off-site guests enjoy the flexibility of deciding whether they will go to a Disney park that day or not. They have wheels.

 

[magicbob]

I keep seeing the argument that on site guests are locked in and off-site aren't because off site guests have "Wheels". Not everyone who stays on property goes without a car. We always stay on property, we never go without a car. And judging from the packed parking lots at the resorts at the end of the night, we're far from alone in that.

That's true. Whether we stayed on-site or off-site, we have always had our car. But an awful lot of people fly in and take DME so they don't have to rent a car. That is pretty "locked in."

 

[Planogirl]

I think the fastpass plus system is going to send me on the fast track to Universal.We go to WDW about every 2 years. We scrimp and save to do this and always stay off sit to save money. I feel like WDW is telling me "You are not good enough to be around our precious rich guest" As a nurse I am good enough to clean up after you in the hospital when you are sick but we don't want to be around the little people on vacation.

We often stay offsite too so I understand. However I wouldn't write them off just yet. They might still come up with a way to allow offsite visitors to pre-book. We just don't know yet.

I say this as a huge fan of Universal. By the way, Universal isn't that hard to tour without Express except during really busy times. We also don't know yet if WDW will be harder but I'll be the first one to complain if it is.

 

[NickyKnack]

I would think once through the gates the locking in becomes easier.
Are people really going to turn around after dropping a non refundable 100 bucks a head to leave the parks and go somewhere else just because they can't get a fp for the rides they want?

But how is this locking a guest in? Disney has stated that they want to lock guest into their parks so they won't go somewhere else. I get what you are saying and it makes sense but nothing about that will have someone that stay off-sites in a hurry to purchase tickets or lock them into doing a Disney park. Now they are more open to all the other draws in the area.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

I would think once through the gates the locking in becomes easier.
Are people really going to turn around after dropping a non refundable 100 bucks a head to leave the parks and go somewhere else just because they can't get a fp for the rides they want?

This is what I was pointing out. If Disney can get them to purchase their tickets before they leave home, no amount of cool looking billboards or shiny brochures they find in their hotel lobby is going to pull them away from the money they have already spent. But if they arrive into town with no tickets, then is fair game. They can change their mind at the drop of a hat and drive over to Universal or Sea World and see those new rides they keep showing on the billboards and brochures.

No they aren't going to leave the park after they spent the money to get in but they can be swayed away up to the minute they enter Disney property by all the other Orlando attractions. Offering them some form of pre-booking would require those that stay off-site to purchase their ticket early. And NOW you have the locked them before they drive into to town and see all the other things to do in Orlando.

 

[mom2rtk]

This is what I was pointing out. If Disney can get them to purchase their tickets before they leave home, no amount of cool looking billboards or shiny brochures they find in their hotel lobby is going to pull them away from the money they have already spent. But if they arrive into town with no tickets, then is fair game. They can change their mind at the drop of a hat and drive over to Universal or Sea World and see those new rides they keep showing on the billboards and brochures.

No they aren't going to leave the park after they spent the money to get in but they can be swayed away up to the minute they enter Disney property by all the other Orlando attractions. Offering them some form of pre-booking would require those that stay off-site to purchase their ticket early. And NOW you have the locked them before they drive into to town and see all the other things to do in Orlando.

It really depends on how many days worth of tickets they bought. After 4 days, all they really have invested is $10 a day. If I spent all that money to get to Orlando, and wasn't getting to ride the things I want, I would totally ditch a $10/day investment to go somewhere else.

So does that mean the next logical step would be to increase the price of those out days? Who knows. It has worked wonders for getting us to stay as many days as possible when we are there, so they would have to change that at their own peril. Anything seems possible any more though.

 

[dayvewc]

It really depends on how many days worth of tickets they bought. After 4 days, all they really have invested is $10 a day. If I spent all that money to get to Orlando, and wasn't getting to ride the things I want, I would totally ditch a $10/day investment to go somewhere else.

So does that mean the next logical step would be to increase the price of those out days? Who knows. It has worked wonders for getting us to stay as many days as possible when we are there, so they would have to change that at their own peril. Anything seems possible any more though.

JMHO, but I don't calculate the additional days as just "$10 extra per day" I look at the total average cost per day. So, if I had 6 day tickets but realized I wasn't getting to ride the things I want I would not view it as ditching $10/ day, it would mean my daily ticket cost changed from $50 a day to $75. (Assuming I spent 1 day in each park before deciding to ditch).

I think this is where Disney needs to be careful. Cause, yeah, I'll spend those next 2 days in the park, but (if things are as bad as all that) I won't be tempted to add on, and I won't be back in 6 months. And DVC will be getting to exercise their right of first refusal in about 6 weeks.

 

[wisblue]

That's true. Whether we stayed on-site or off-site, we have always had our car. But an awful lot of people fly in and take DME so they don't have to rent a car. That is pretty "locked in."

Before DME we always rented a car because it was easier and cheaper than getting 5 people to and from MCO.

These days, when we have stayed onsite and wanted to go offsite for something like Sea World, Universal, Capital One Bowl, etc., we have rented a car for a day or two from one of the rental car sites nearby, like the Dolphin or the Hilton on Hotel Boulevard.

We have never felt "locked in".

 

[ArwenMarie]

Magical Express was a huge success in getting people committed and locked in. And they are hoping to duplicate that success with prebooking FP+. Now whether they will or not...that is the question...

 

[BroganMc]

Magical Express was a huge success in getting people committed and locked in. And they are hoping to duplicate that success with prebooking FP+. Now whether they will or not...that is the question...

Trouble is getting people to NOT spend extra money on a car rental is a lot easier than getting them to commit to a touring plan weeks/months in advance. That's far too detailed for most people.

What will help is flooding the system with way more FP+ options every morning. Since I was able to validate my AP with my MagicBand over my recent NYE trip I've been able to run daily tests on availability. It's been very good so far.

For instance I checked DHS today at 1pm to see if I could score a FP+ for TSMM. I was offered times at 5:20 and 6pm. No way could I have gotten a FP- for that ride after 1pm before. That shows a lot of promise to me.

Now they just need to get rid of the stupid tiering! How in the world does Beauty and the Beast or Fantasmic qualify as a top tier attraction at DHS? I never once needed a FP (or GAC) for either of those two shows.