FP+ "day of" speculation

[nugov2]

A whole house? Wow! How many people are generally in your group? Have you looked into just booking a 2 bedroom villa or multiple single rooms?

At this time we need 3 bdrms. I have a 3,6 and 9 yr old. My dh and I need one room, my dd her own and then the boys are ok sharing. The boys are early risers(usually my middle guy up the earliest). If they are up at 6:30 and 7/7:30 my dd can still sleep for another 2 hours(if we aren't headed out early) without noise from the boys. In the evening they are wiped and ready for bed earlier than my dd or even for example in WDW all in bed by 10 or 11. My dh and I like to stay up, watch a movie and hang by the pool or sit outside. We cannot do that in even a 3brm condo so it has to be a house or townhouse. When they are older I would consider something smaller like a villa or 2 rooms, but for not just doesn't work for our vacation style.

Sometimes we will do two rooms in a hotel for a night or two, 3 max. Dh sleeps in the room with the boys and my dd and I in our own room, but vacationing like that for the week or longer isn't something we would be happy with. Too cramped, don't like tiptoeing around in the dark/early morning or snacking/watching tv in bed at night. Luckily vacation homes are available everywhere and most are still resort style with private pools and big resort pools.

 

[momof2n2]

If you have to have a paid for ticket to book, how is that detrimental to WDW? You've paid for it and log on, nothing you like you postpone your trip. Once you buy the ticket you will use it at some point. I think the key is for off site guests having to pay for the ticket though. Sorry, I am not spending the money it costs to go to WDW to wait in line at a kiosk to book FP with long lines or try to use an app that is crappy at best. I will gladly pay more money upfront to get the perk(ie. buying all of our tickets or some other fee to have access) or I will give you nothing and go down the road.

I will not stay on site for a very long time. We need a house and that is all there is to it. WDW doesn't offer them. It has nothing to do with cost. We spent a ton dining and paying for activities at the resorts. Even if this is the mentality of 20% of off site guests(off site for space not savings) WDW will feel that loss. We spent thousands at the resorts and park in addition to our tickets. For every off site guest who spend very little or is going on a strict budget so there are probably double on site value guest who spent a lot of their WDW spending money just to get on site. Now that they put more money into their accommodations they have very little to spend at resorts/shops and restaurants, where as the off site budget guest spends the same at WDW as that guest, but does so in the form of restaurants/shops and resort activities. Those guest are a wash for WDW, but they alienate that off site guest by blocking them from prebooking FP and they lose that money. I don't think many would go to onsite with less to spend, b/c for most that would leave them feeling ripped off and not wanting to go.

At this time we need 3 bdrms. I have a 3,6 and 9 yr old. My dh and I need one room, my dd her own and then the boys are ok sharing. The boys are early risers(usually my middle guy up the earliest). If they are up at 6:30 and 7/7:30 my dd can still sleep for another 2 hours(if we aren't headed out early) without noise from the boys. In the evening they are wiped and ready for bed earlier than my dd or even for example in WDW all in bed by 10 or 11. My dh and I like to stay up, watch a movie and hang by the pool or sit outside. We cannot do that in even a 3brm condo so it has to be a house or townhouse. When they are older I would consider something smaller like a villa or 2 rooms, but for not just doesn't work for our vacation style.

Sometimes we will do two rooms in a hotel for a night or two, 3 max. Dh sleeps in the room with the boys and my dd and I in our own room, but vacationing like that for the week or longer isn't something we would be happy with. Too cramped, don't like tiptoeing around in the dark/early morning or snacking/watching tv in bed at night. Luckily vacation homes are available everywhere and most are still resort style with private pools and big resort pools.

You've well articulated my family's position. People define vacations differently. For us, DH and I are early risers who don't want to tip tie around hotel rooms at 5AM. We like a hot drink, our Bibles, & a cozy chair. Not flashlights in the bathroom. (Yup - did that ONCE.) With six kids of varying ages we need a house. Sure, we might fit in Treetops but it would cost a bundle and that would be buying someone's points, right? That's not on site, right?

So our party of 8, (plus Grandma and aunt) find ourselves a pretty house for about $110 a night. But do you have any idea how much we spend at WDW over five days? Akershus. Crystal Palace. Liberty Tree Tavern. Times 9 people (1 baby). No dining plan for us. . That's all out of pocket. On top of the $2500+ the tickets would cost us. It won't break WDW bank, but it's not nothing either.

Because the house is as inexpensive as it is I feel more comfortable doing all those character meals and TS.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

True, but as someone posited (I think it was Laketravis), there is a risk in allowing off-site guests to pre-book at, say, 30 days because there may not be much availability with on-site booking beginning at 60 days. Could that turn out to be a deterrent in the long run?

But as I pointed out, off-site guest would need to purchase their tickets early to be able to even see what was available. In that, Disney is locking those off-site guest into Disney. Don't like the choices? Tough cookie, we have your money. No refund for tickets! I don't know many families that can just over look the hit Disney tickets would take out of their vacation budget and just decide to do something else. But the same family rolls into town, checks into their room and picks up all those shiny brochures in the lobby that show all the cool NEW rides over and Universal, and suddenly the kids could be begging to check them out. Not reason not to just change plans and to Universal. But if they already have money in Disney tickets, I would say they are probably going to stick with Disney.

 

[nugov2]

But as I pointed out, off-site guest would need to purchase their tickets early to be able to even see what was available. In that, Disney is locking those off-site guest into Disney. Don't like the choices? Tough cookie, we have your money. No refund for tickets! I don't know many families that can just over look the hit Disney tickets would take out of their vacation budget and just decide to do something else. But the same family rolls into town, checks into their room and picks up all those shiny brochures in the lobby that show all the cool NEW rides over and Universal, and suddenly the kids could be begging to check them out. Not reason not to just change plans and to Universal. But if they already have money in Disney tickets, I would say they are probably going to stick with Disney.

I just cannot see them not allowing prebooking for offsite when all parks are up and running. I think people think that off site folks are penny pinchers on a shoe string budget, but as I said in my earlier post they probably get the same from the budget off site guest as the do from the budget on site guest. It just comes from different revenue. If there is no incentive to come for the off site guest, they won't. That seems like a risky move for WDW risking losing their off site guest or losing a big portion of their trip.

 

[dmband]

But this is what keeps coming back to me. Disney stated that the goal of this new program was to get guest locked into parks weeks before they ever reach Orlando so as not to be pulled into other attractions around town!

Did the complete op for my family
We used to go to Disney one or two times a yr and after a wasted/bad experience with fp+, add in that you have to stay on site (which we pref but with a large family the lack of affordable options prevents that always), add in that with young kids you can't really plan out a trip months ahead of time, add in to that weather and Disney has just pushed us to go other places instead of to them

 

[kidd_freeper]

And do you think that off-site guests will eventually get to pre-book as I originally surmised? If so, how will this impact availability for "day of" FP+? Obviously, it will HAVE to reduce availability. But how much?

1. It seems to take a LOT of staffing for those in-park kiosks. WDW would LOVE to reduce that number
2. WDW would LOVE to know the plans for offsite guests in advance so that can have the right staffing for the crowd levels, how many in-park meals to have ready, etc.
3. WDW would love to sell Magic Bands to offsite guests

So, yes pre-book FP+ for offsite guests will happen.

Will FP+ availability be reduced? I doubt it. As many here point out, 3 FP+ per day is way less than what they are used to. I think WDW low-balled the number of FP+s available to each guest until WDW gains some experience with the system. It is entirely possible that they will increase the number of FP+s.

 

[Laketravis]

Ya'll are starting to convince me that letting off-site guests reserve FP's in advance makes sense.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Ya'll are starting to convince me that letting off-site guests reserve FP's in advance makes sense.

The one thing I can't get past though is that allowing prebooking would reduce availability for onsite customers. But maybe that is not the main goal.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

The one thing I can't get past though is that allowing prebooking would reduce availability for onsite customers. But maybe that is not the main goal.

I can see this as a concern. But as Disney think they already have DVC owners and AP already kind of locked in, maybe they think guest that book a package with Disney is already more committed to doing a Disney vacation anyway. Maybe they are a bit worried about that park down the road throwing up new rides right and left and pulling those off-site guest away from Disney. After all, they have to get in the car and decide where to drive every morning. They don't have a bus pulling up out front to take them where the resort wants them to go. So how to get those off-site guest to commit to Disney before they check into their room and see all those cool brochures out in the lobby? Get them to buy their tickets before them leave home.

Does it make sense for Disney to sit around talking about how to lock on-site guest in before they leave home? Doesn't picking them up at the airport and providing transportation every where they need to go on property kind already locking them in. The statement about locking guest into their parks before leaving home already sounds more like trying to get to off-site guest to me. Disney knows not everyone can or will stay on-site. They would want to keep them coming to Disney. They need these off-site guest.

Now if you can get them to use the Disney's website and purchase their tickets before leaving home, then they can push those MB to purchase. Then Disney has a way to get off-site guest to link a credit card to those bands or even the cards and doesn't the research say that touch to pay equals with people spending more money. Right now, off-site guest have no way to being able to do this. With this new system, I can see it being done.

 

[Shaden]

I can see this as a concern. But as Disney think they already have DVC owners and AP already kind of locked in, maybe they think guest that book a package with Disney is already more committed to doing a Disney vacation anyway. Maybe they are a bit worried about that park down the road throwing up new rides right and left and pulling those off-site guest away from Disney. After all, they have to get in the car and decide where to drive every morning. They don't have a bus pulling up out front to take them where the resort wants them to go. So how to get those off-site guest to commit to Disney before they check into their room and see all those cool brochures out in the lobby? Get them to buy their tickets before them leave home.

Does it make sense for Disney to sit around talking about how to lock on-site guest in before they leave home? Doesn't picking them up at the airport and providing transportation every where they need to go on property kind already locking them in. The statement about locking guest into their parks before leaving home already sounds more like trying to get to off-site guest to me. Disney knows not everyone can or will stay on-site. They would want to keep them coming to Disney. They need these off-site guest.

Now if you can get them to use the Disney's website and purchase their tickets before leaving home, then they can push those MB to purchase. Then Disney has a way to get off-site guest to link a credit card to those bands or even the cards and doesn't the research say that touch to pay equals with people spending more money. Right now, off-site guest have no way to being able to do this. With this new system, I can see it being done.

Yea this is the point I was making quite a while ago now when debating off-site pre booking.

If the entire point of FP+ is as stated 'To "lock" people into the WDW vacation, to discourage them from going elsewhere in order to ensure that WDW is getting more of the Orlando vacation dollar' then Off-site pre-booking has to take place.

As noted, I would imagine the VAST majority of onsite guests do not have access to a vehicle. Let me know if I am wrong by all means. But the provision of transit to and from WDW and around WDW already Locks" most onsite guests to WDW for just about everything. While its true that crowd management and line management MIGHT increase spending of onsite guests through FP+ ... I am still waiting to see if this actually pans out or backfires.

The people who they NEED to lock in, to prevent them from going elsewhere with their $$$ are the offsite guests. They are the ones that can choose to go elsewhere for meals, or for souvenirs, they can spend more time at "another" park/attraction etc. So they are really the ones that need to be locked in.

MBs will somewhat increase the spending of onsite guests (we know this from a ton of social research) but I think one of the main foci of FP+ has to be locking in those offsite guests. I think again this is part of the reason you can pre-book at 60 days, heck they might even increase this further out (unless this number is already supported by research, which it probably is) if they are finding the average offsite guest "decides" what they are doing before 60 days.

Its going to be interesting to see how this develops, even if I don't like the system I do still find it interesting, maybe it will go in a direction I like more, maybe not ...

Should also say this might still be combined with some advantage to onsite guests, 60 +10 for onsite, or even 80 day for onsite 60 for off (depending when that magic "decision day" is ... 3 FPs for offsite and 4,5,6 for onsite... Of course, with both of these we get into issues of capacity, and again $$$.

If onsite guests truly are locked in, and offsite guests really aren't, from a Disney perspective it might make MORE sense to give OFFSITE people an advantage over onsite .... OMG, seriously right ??? (it depends how much this would effect onsite bookings of course) If I, as an onsite guest, am already locked in it doesn't matter if I have a 10am Test Track and then a 6pm Soarin FP .... because chances are, I am not going anywhere anyway, I will spend my money at WDW regardless. BUT, if you could give an offsiter a headliner just before lunch, and at a time later in the afternoon probably a good enough distance from lunch that they are likely to buy some dinner at the park as well .... BAM !!! That's a revenue generator right there ....

Heck this system could even do this automatically ... lets say I FP TT at like 1pm, and via those wonderful magic bands WDW can detect I ate lunch at a QS at 12 and I have no onsite reservations for that night ... I could automatically give me a prompt with a Soarin FP+ reservation availability at ... 6pm ? 7pm ? With research it could really nail this down to a time differential that limits the chance I go offsite to grab a bit and then come back, but increases the likelihood that I get too hungry, cave, and but our dinner onsite as well ... Ooooooh the magic of technology. Of course, I as a consumer am not really a fan of this, because me, they aren't going to offer me any of this, I will have my ADRs all selected

 

[catra121]

1. It seems to take a LOT of staffing for those in-park kiosks. WDW would LOVE to reduce that number
2. WDW would LOVE to know the plans for offsite guests in advance so that can have the right staffing for the crowd levels, how many in-park meals to have ready, etc.
3. WDW would love to sell Magic Bands to offsite guests

So, yes pre-book FP+ for offsite guests will happen.

Will FP+ availability be reduced? I doubt it. As many here point out, 3 FP+ per day is way less than what they are used to. I think WDW low-balled the number of FP+s available to each guest until WDW gains some experience with the system. It is entirely possible that they will increase the number of FP+s.

1. The kiosks will still exist and still NEED to exist for guests without smart phones (or dead smart phones) or who need to make changes day of. So they still need to be staffed.

2. They already have a good idea of what the crowd levels will be and what staffing they need. Just look at what touring plans and similar sites do...and they don't even work for Disney. Pre-booking FP+ by offsite guests does not give them any advantage here.

3. WDW will still sell MB to offsite guests...regardless of ability to pre-book FP+.

So no...my opinion is pre-booking of FP+ by offsite guests will not happen.

 

[catra121]

Yea this is the point I was making quite a while ago now when debating off-site pre booking.

If the entire point of FP+ is as stated 'To "lock" people into the WDW vacation, to discourage them from going elsewhere in order to ensure that WDW is getting more of the Orlando vacation dollar' then Off-site pre-booking has to take place.

As noted, I would imagine the VAST majority of onsite guests do not have access to a vehicle. Let me know if I am wrong by all means. But the provision of transit to and from WDW and around WDW already Locks" most onsite guests to WDW for just about everything. While its true that crowd management and line management MIGHT increase spending of onsite guests through FP+ ... I am still waiting to see if this actually pans out or backfires.

The people who they NEED to lock in, to prevent them from going elsewhere with their $$$ are the offsite guests. They are the ones that can choose to go elsewhere for meals, or for souvenirs, they can spend more time at "another" park/attraction etc. So they are really the ones that need to be locked in.

MBs will somewhat increase the spending of onsite guests (we know this from a ton of social research) but I think one of the main foci of FP+ has to be locking in those offsite guests. I think again this is part of the reason you can pre-book at 60 days, heck they might even increase this further out (unless this number is already supported by research, which it probably is) if they are finding the average offsite guest "decides" what they are doing before 60 days.

Its going to be interesting to see how this develops, even if I don't like the system I do still find it interesting, maybe it will go in a direction I like more, maybe not ...

Should also say this might still be combined with some advantage to onsite guests, 60 +10 for onsite, or even 80 day for onsite 60 for off (depending when that magic "decision day" is ... 3 FPs for offsite and 4,5,6 for onsite... Of course, with both of these we get into issues of capacity, and again $$$.

If onsite guests truly are locked in, and offsite guests really aren't, from a Disney perspective it might make MORE sense to give OFFSITE people an advantage over onsite .... OMG, seriously right ??? (it depends how much this would effect onsite bookings of course) If I, as an onsite guest, am already locked in it doesn't matter if I have a 10am Test Track and then a 6pm Soarin FP .... because chances are, I am not going anywhere anyway, I will spend my money at WDW regardless. BUT, if you could give an offsiter a headliner just before lunch, and at a time later in the afternoon probably a good enough distance from lunch that they are likely to buy some dinner at the park as well .... BAM !!! That's a revenue generator right there ....

Heck this system could even do this automatically ... lets say I FP TT at like 1pm, and via those wonderful magic bands WDW can detect I ate lunch at a QS at 12 and I have no onsite reservations for that night ... I could automatically give me a prompt with a Soarin FP+ reservation availability at ... 6pm ? 7pm ? With research it could really nail this down to a time differential that limits the chance I go offsite to grab a bit and then come back, but increases the likelihood that I get too hungry, cave, and but our dinner onsite as well ... Ooooooh the magic of technology. Of course, I as a consumer am not really a fan of this, because me, they aren't going to offer me any of this, I will have my ADRs all selected

Here's my take on this particular point about "locking in" the offsite guests.

Not every offsite guest will pre-book FP+...they can't because I don't think there will be enough FP+ for that to happen. I honestly believe that if they CAN...then there will be no day of availability.

Maybe you lock in some offsite guests this way...but you will drive away not only offsite guests but onsite guests as well if there is no day of availability for FP+. That would be a sub par experience for everyone...including those who already pre-booked FP+ because they won't be able to move their reservations around (which is one of the functions most people actually LIKE about the FP+ system).

No day of availability would REALLY hurt the experience for MOST park guests and would drive them away from Disney...in my opinion.

 

[kmarie99]

I understand that there will always need to be a kiosk, but there will not always be a need for the amount of people that they currently have staffing it. Maybe one person per set of kiosks like they have for the current FP-.

I think that FP+ should be able to be booked day of for offsite guest but should be able to be book from a phone or PC before they actually get to the parks.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Good points that allowing prebooking for offsite does lock them in.

I still think one goal of FP+/MM+ is to increase onsite occupancy however. Maybe they will do that through giving more FPs to onsite customers.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

Good points that allowing prebooking for offsite does lock them in.

I still think one goal of FP+/MM+ is to increase onsite occupancy however. Maybe they will do that through giving more FPs to onsite customers.

Or maybe they do it by allowing on-site to pre-book at 60 days and off-site at 30 days. I still think that on-site will be like ADRs. 60 days plus 10. I don't see many on-siter up in arms about off-siter allowed to book ADRs at 60 days. We just have to get up each morning 60 days out. On-site guests get the jump on off-site that way.

ETA: Meant to say off-site guest allowed to book ADRs at 180 days.

 

[Nole95]

If they stick with the three advance FP selections I am good with that. However here is what I would like to see.

Once in a park you are able to schedule an additional FP so long as the time does not interfere with one already scheduled. This would come dome whatever day of inventory there is.

From there the same rules apply as far as the two hour rule before you can schedule another.

I think three FPs a day is too few, but do understand why they do not want people to prebook more than that.

 

[momof2n2]

Or maybe they do it by allowing on-site to pre-book at 60 days and off-site at 30 days. I still think that on-site will be like ADRs. 60 days plus 10. I don't see many on-siter up in arms about off-siter allowed to book ADRs at 60 days. We just have to get up each morning 60 days out. On-site guests get the jump on off-site that way.

Excellent comparison IMO.

 

[nugov2]

Or maybe they do it by allowing on-site to pre-book at 60 days and off-site at 30 days. I still think that on-site will be like ADRs. 60 days plus 10. I don't see many on-siter up in arms about off-siter allowed to book ADRs at 60 days. We just have to get up each morning 60 days out. On-site guests get the jump on off-site that way.

ETA: Meant to say off-site guest allowed to book ADRs at 180 days.

This is what I have been saying. Obviously only time will tell, but I think on site guests don't want off site guests having advanced access so they are wishful thinking and off sites want so they are wishful thinking. I would agree wdw official statements seem to hint off site will have prebooking access. Guess we will all have to stay tuned!

 

[magicbob]

Here's my take on this particular point about "locking in" the offsite guests.

Not every offsite guest will pre-book FP+...they can't because I don't think there will be enough FP+ for that to happen. I honestly believe that if they CAN...then there will be no day of availability.

Maybe you lock in some offsite guests this way...but you will drive away not only offsite guests but onsite guests as well if there is no day of availability for FP+. That would be a sub par experience for everyone...including those who already pre-booked FP+ because they won't be able to move their reservations around (which is one of the functions most people actually LIKE about the FP+ system).

No day of availability would REALLY hurt the experience for MOST park guests and would drive them away from Disney...in my opinion.

Lots of thought-provoking discussion... I'm starting to think my original theory that off-site will eventually get to pre-book might have been correct after all.

I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken.

The thing that still has me scratching my head is the capacity issue. I agree with the bolded statement above. I don't see any way WDW can supply enough FP+ slots to allow EVERY guest to pre-book. Not and have any left over for "day of" anyway.

It will be very interesting to see how things develop over the next few months.

 

[Laketravis]

The thing that still has me scratching my head is the capacity issue.

Me too. I just can't get my head around how 12,000 TSM FP's in a day can be distributed to 30,000 people.