Last week, I was playing around at home since I have tickets in my
MDE.
Anyway, I refreshed for same-day Pooh (it was showing as sold out)....I refreshed for 15 minutes and I never got them. This was for one person
Very little new stuff popped in actually at all.
There are really a lot of factors that play into how easy or hard it feels to get Day Of FPs. Party size, crowd level, how tedious you find the process, whether you are looking for something specific or just whatever is worthwhile to you, how well WiFi and/or cellular is working on your phone, and yes, luck. The more of those factors you have in your favor the easier it will likely feel.
The first year they started 4th FP from your phone we went in the first month it was active. It was very hard for us. We only got a few and it quickly got frustrating so I stopped bothering.
This past May was a different story (I’m assuming there were refinements to the system after the initial roll out). I knew to break up my party of 5 and was more committed to refreshing (a good and bad thing - I try to be on it as little as possible to be present for my kids). On a moderate crowd day I spent much of an afternoon trying to get our whole party in to see Talking Mickey. It took a lot of time. On a lower/moderate day at Epcot I was able to get Soarin and Illuminations with not that much work.
On a crowd level 8 day, my SIL and I were trying to get overlapping FPs in the evening for our group of 9. I saw a lot of Under the Sea, the lower tier rides, and was able to pick up Pirates. I would hold them for my family while SIL tried to get matching times. Her phone was not working with the WiFi so well and the app would hang because she would lose the signal. She got very frustrated and gave up. I never saw a top tier ride like 7DMT or mtn during all my refreshing
So like things like pixie dust and crowd levels, there’s an element of perception and lots of factors at play. I think it’s important for people to know that you can really get some good FPs with refreshing but it’s important to have realistic expections. Anything above that is pixie dust. If you got a lot of pixie dust, congratulations. If you not, you are not alone.