First Riviera ROFR

[havoc315]

While it is fun to argue about how much resale prices will rise or fall at RIV compared to other resorts, I think it misses a big point. That point is that resale prices are going to fall at all resorts and maybe pretty dramatically. What makes resale attractive is the savings versus a cash stay at a regular Disney deluxe resort over time. For the current prices to remain sustainable it requires the cash rates at Disney deluxe resorts to be able to keep increasing at the incredible rate they have in the post pandemic world. If you look at what is happening hotel occupancy rates and prices over the last six months around the world, those kind of increases in cash rates are proving to be unsustainable. If you think Disney won't be impacted by the kind of problems we are seeing develop in places like Vegas, I think you are being overly optimistic.

I am not saying we are headed into a recession or anything like that. I just think we are seeing a growing backlash to the dramatic increases in the cost of vacations far outpacing even the sky high inflation rates. Now that people don't feel the need for revenge travel, they are becoming ever increasingly price sensitive when it comes to vacation spending.

A good portion of WDW guests are international, and due to world events and US policies, tourism to the US is diving.
For example, visitors from Mexico, Brazil and many other countries will soon be required to pay an extra $250 fee.

This drop in tourism will impact WDW, and likely impact the hotel occupancy rates.

 

[davidhr]

A good portion of WDW guests are international, and due to world events and US policies, tourism to the US is diving.

Ironically, FL visitors (both domestic and international) are up in the last quarter.

 

[Mouseforward]

If buyers actually cared about total cost of ownership and resale value we would see no Audi/BMW/MB on the road. A DVC contract for most is about the same cost as a car and we see that people buy what they want not what is the best value.

 

[VGCgroupie]

If buyers actually cared about total cost of ownership and resale value we would see no Audi/BMW/MB on the road. A DVC contract for most is about the same cost as a car and we see that people buy what they want not what is the best value.

I have my paid off mom car (CCV) and then we have a high end off road truck (VDH/VGC)

 

[Patmcpsu]

We don't go to Vegas anymore because you cant walk down the street without being hit in the face constantly with marijuana, people sleeping in corners. It has nothing to do with prices. I know many share my sentiment, I dont think prices are the issue with Vegas tourism slumping.

Vegas has always been seedy. The problem most people cite about Vegas is how overpriced everything there is. Vegas has always been a little overpriced, but things got really out of hand after Covid (which you could also say about Disney). This is compounded by American household budgets being strained by inflation in general. Other theories for Vegas tourism being down are:

1. Drop in foreign tourists, namely from Canada. This would also apply to Disney.
2. California opening casinos. The Disney parallel to this would be Epic Universe.
3. Service quality going downhill, which I also hear about Disney.

But yes, Disney doesn't have any issues with homeless people or marijuana smell, and that does count for something.

With all of that being said, you can check cash rates at Disney hotels and see that they're not the same as they were a couple years ago. As a DVC owner, that is a cause for concern as it undermines demand for DVC contracts.

 

[Genie+]

The “hurt the customer” to make them buy direct is the evidence their direct product is overpriced and they absolutely know it. They realize people can easily pay to add luxury to their stays without having “blue card” bs. Hence, if they insist on drastic buy in inflation this is all that’s left.

Im just guessing but it’s likely part of a long term plan. DVC has been watching how much meat is left on the bone that a huge resale market has been built. But DVD doesn’t make a dime on resale. My bet is eventually they will have a way to bring resale back into their sandbox. If people arebuying restricted resales low price, that leaves room for a ‘washed points’ price.

 

[RivShore]

1. Drop in foreign tourists, namely from Canada. This would also apply to Disney.
2. California opening casinos. The Disney parallel to this would be Epic Universe.
3. Service quality going downhill, which I also hear about Disney.

Some comments on these:

1) Foreign tourists make up less than 10% of Orlando visitors, I was surprised it was that little. (We had some good data on our stock thread on that but of course I can't find it now.) That means that even if it dropped by a third, it would just amount to a couple percent less in overall visitors.

2) Your comparison is nothing like EU/WDW - EU will draw more overall visitors to Orlando and many of them will find their way to WDW, it is exactly what happened when HP opened, both Universal and WDW attendance went up.

3) This is certainly true and it's frustratingly happening everywhere. I dread calling or chatting with help desks, and the supposed AI improvements do nothing but make it more frustrating!

 

[VGCgroupie]

Vegas has always been seedy. The problem most people cite about Vegas is how overpriced everything there is. Vegas has always been a little overpriced, but things got really out of hand after Covid (which you could also say about Disney). This is compounded by American household budgets being strained by inflation in general. Other theories for Vegas tourism being down are:

1. Drop in foreign tourists, namely from Canada. This would also apply to Disney.
2. California opening casinos. The Disney parallel to this would be Epic Universe.
3. Service quality going downhill, which I also hear about Disney.

But yes, Disney doesn't have any issues with homeless people or marijuana smell, and that does count for something.

With all of that being said, you can check cash rates at Disney hotels and see that they're not the same as they were a couple years ago. As a DVC owner, that is a cause for concern as it undermines demand for DVC contracts.

We used to go with my daughter when she was younger and walk down the strip and everything was fine. Yes Vegas has always had its problems but nothing like it is now. I lived there for a period of time and I still have family that lives there. So I speak from facts, not just guesses. It is much much worse than in the past.

 

[Androzor]

Just to clarify…the info regarding ownership around 7 to 10 years…it is only based on owners who have sold and not those the didn’t.

So, it’s not that the average owner sells that soon…but rather of the small group of owners who have sold, the ownership within that group is that 7 to 10 years.

Most owners hold on much longer than that.

So why is it that we don’t have the data about how long direct buyers hold on to their contracts? If all WDW DVC direct sales as well as resales are recorded and available for the public to see on the Orange County website, it seems that someone smarter than me should be able to search and compile this data, no?

 

[eticketplease]

So why is it that we don’t have the data about how long direct buyers hold on to their contracts? If all WDW DVC direct sales as well as resales are recorded and available for the public to see on the Orange County website, it seems that someone smarter than me should be able to search and compile this data, no?

You would have to examine every deed to see which light switch or door knob was purchased (ie percent of room in what building) and then see if there was a match if it was sold. Then you might come across it again as someone else resold it. Sounds like a lot of work to me.

 

[Brian Noble]

So why is it that we don’t have the data about how long direct buyers hold on to their contracts?

Because no one has bothered to compile it.

(Well, Disney probably has, because they see all transfers, but they are not telling.)

 

[Androzor]

Because no one has bothered to compile it.

(Well, Disney probably has, because they see all transfers, but they are not telling.)

I haven’t been on the DVC boards long, but this topic has come up more than a few times. If the data is freely available, this seems like information many of us would like to see. Anyone handy with AI?

 

[Androzor]

You would have to examine every deed to see which light switch or door knob was purchased (ie percent of room in what building) and then see if there was a match if it was sold. Then you might come across it again as someone else resold it. Sounds like a lot of work to me.

It would be a lot of work for a person, but I’m not suggesting a person compile the data.

 

[sndral]

Some comments on these:

1) Foreign tourists make up less than 10% of Orlando visitors, I was surprised it was that little. (We had some good data on our stock thread on that but of course I can't find it now.) That means that even if it dropped by a third, it would just amount to a couple percent less in overall visitors.

2) Your comparison is nothing like EU/WDW - EU will draw more overall visitors to Orlando and many of them will find their way to WDW, it is exactly what happened when HP opened, both Universal and WDW attendance went up.

3) This is certainly true and it's frustratingly happening everywhere. I dread calling or chatting with help desks, and the supposed AI improvements do nothing but make it more frustrating!

Everything I can find puts international tourism to Orlando/WDW at over double your 10% number (see this article, for example https://www.connollycove.com/disney-tourism-statistics/) so I’d be interested in reading your sources.
The second metric Disney seems to track closely is per guest spending & everything I’ve read shows that international visitors tend to spend more than domestic.
However, based on Disney’s Q3 earnings report thus far they seem to be weathering the storm & per guest spend is up https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-experiences-shines-bright-global-170100952.html. I know my family will be helping Q4’s per guest spend data .

 

[muppets3d]

If you're buying direct, the remaining contract length is usually 45-50 years. If the average ownership length of a DVC contract is 7-8 years (I keep hearing that number referenced, but never properly cited), that means a contract changes hands an average of 4-6 times over the course of its life. I'm aware there are cases where contracts change hands zero times, but that's the outlier.

It's never been properly cited because it's a snapple fact. Something that someone made up, someone else decided it sounded good, and it's been repeated often enough that people just take it as fact.

 

[Brian Noble]

Anyone handy with AI?

This does not do what you think it does.
-signed, a computer science professor.

(The current versions of the Plagiarism Machine can't even do simple math correctly.)

https://www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/comments/1mkrrbx/chatgpt_5_has_unrivaled_math_skills

 

[VGCgroupie]

This does not do what you think it does.
-signed, a computer science professor.

(The current versions of the Plagiarism Machine can't even do simple math correctly.)

https://www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/comments/1mkrrbx/chatgpt_5_has_unrivaled_math_skills

I keep saying here on the boards AI cant be trusted, not in a terminator type way, but in it actually being correct.

 

[Brian Noble]

Plagiarists often aren't.

 

[Mouseforward]

Funny thing is the only ones not using AI are the professors, failure to use AI in any software company and you will be finding yourself unemployed.

 

[RivShore]

In true @Brian Noble fashion, I just took Google's word for it: