First Riviera ROFR

[havoc315]

While it is fun to argue about how much resale prices will rise or fall at RIV compared to other resorts, I think it misses a big point. That point is that resale prices are going to fall at all resorts and maybe pretty dramatically. What makes resale attractive is the savings versus a cash stay at a regular Disney deluxe resort over time. For the current prices to remain sustainable it requires the cash rates at Disney deluxe resorts to be able to keep increasing at the incredible rate they have in the post pandemic world. If you look at what is happening hotel occupancy rates and prices over the last six months around the world, those kind of increases in cash rates are proving to be unsustainable. If you think Disney won't be impacted by the kind of problems we are seeing develop in places like Vegas, I think you are being overly optimistic.

I am not saying we are headed into a recession or anything like that. I just think we are seeing a growing backlash to the dramatic increases in the cost of vacations far outpacing even the sky high inflation rates. Now that people don't feel the need for revenge travel, they are becoming ever increasingly price sensitive when it comes to vacation spending.

A good portion of WDW guests are international, and due to world events and US policies, tourism to the US is diving.
For example, visitors from Mexico, Brazil and many other countries will soon be required to pay an extra $250 fee.

This drop in tourism will impact WDW, and likely impact the hotel occupancy rates.

 

[davidhr]

A good portion of WDW guests are international, and due to world events and US policies, tourism to the US is diving.

Ironically, FL visitors (both domestic and international) are up in the last quarter.

 

[Mouseforward]

If buyers actually cared about total cost of ownership and resale value we would see no Audi/BMW/MB on the road. A DVC contract for most is about the same cost as a car and we see that people buy what they want not what is the best value.

 

[VGCgroupie]

If buyers actually cared about total cost of ownership and resale value we would see no Audi/BMW/MB on the road. A DVC contract for most is about the same cost as a car and we see that people buy what they want not what is the best value.

I have my paid off mom car (CCV) and then we have a high end off road truck (VDH/VGC)

 

[Patmcpsu]

We don't go to Vegas anymore because you cant walk down the street without being hit in the face constantly with marijuana, people sleeping in corners. It has nothing to do with prices. I know many share my sentiment, I dont think prices are the issue with Vegas tourism slumping.

Vegas has always been seedy. The problem most people cite about Vegas is how overpriced everything there is. Vegas has always been a little overpriced, but things got really out of hand after Covid (which you could also say about Disney). This is compounded by American household budgets being strained by inflation in general. Other theories for Vegas tourism being down are:

1. Drop in foreign tourists, namely from Canada. This would also apply to Disney.
2. California opening casinos. The Disney parallel to this would be Epic Universe.
3. Service quality going downhill, which I also hear about Disney.

But yes, Disney doesn't have any issues with homeless people or marijuana smell, and that does count for something.

With all of that being said, you can check cash rates at Disney hotels and see that they're not the same as they were a couple years ago. As a DVC owner, that is a cause for concern as it undermines demand for DVC contracts.

 

[Genie+]

The “hurt the customer” to make them buy direct is the evidence their direct product is overpriced and they absolutely know it. They realize people can easily pay to add luxury to their stays without having “blue card” bs. Hence, if they insist on drastic buy in inflation this is all that’s left.

Im just guessing but it’s likely part of a long term plan. DVC has been watching how much meat is left on the bone that a huge resale market has been built. But DVD doesn’t make a dime on resale. My bet is eventually they will have a way to bring resale back into their sandbox. If people arebuying restricted resales low price, that leaves room for a ‘washed points’ price.

 

[RivShore]

1. Drop in foreign tourists, namely from Canada. This would also apply to Disney.
2. California opening casinos. The Disney parallel to this would be Epic Universe.
3. Service quality going downhill, which I also hear about Disney.

Some comments on these:

1) Foreign tourists make up less than 10% of Orlando visitors, I was surprised it was that little. (We had some good data on our stock thread on that but of course I can't find it now.) That means that even if it dropped by a third, it would just amount to a couple percent less in overall visitors.

2) Your comparison is nothing like EU/WDW - EU will draw more overall visitors to Orlando and many of them will find their way to WDW, it is exactly what happened when HP opened, both Universal and WDW attendance went up.

3) This is certainly true and it's frustratingly happening everywhere. I dread calling or chatting with help desks, and the supposed AT improvements do nothing but make it more frustrating!