First DVC poster: Are these calculations accurate

[DianeW]

Don't look at purchasing DVC as any kind of financial investment. It isn't. But do you consider any other vacation a "financial investment"? Nope. That's not the point of taking a vacation.

Our investment with DVC is an emotional one. Owning DVC ensures that we actually DO take a vacation (usually two, sometimes three) every year. Otherwise, vacations tended to get pushed aside, because we "didn't have time". It also gives us time with our kiddos, shared experiences, fun, and fabulous memories. I think DVC is worth every penny for us. But your mileage may vary.

 

[chalee94]

1 - They say this locks in your rates for 50 years
I understand the reallocation so am I accurate when I think that right now, I can get a 1 BR villa at AK for 34 ppn, then in 10 years, I can do the same? Or close to that?

2 - How much has the annual dues gone up? Right now they are $7.62 per point so $762 for 100 points per year plan.

3 - I have to buy into a certain "home resort?" How does that work?

4 - Looking at AK it looks good: Studio apartment for 7 nights is roughly $450 per night costing a cash investment of $3150 for a 7 night stay.

1 - The total number of pts (including every villa for every night of the year) for each resort is fixed and cannot change. Here's some history for you. you can see some of the reallocations in the links below:

You can find the current point chart for OKW in the Resource Center thread that is stickied:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-dvc-resource-center-updated-january-2018.3655476/​

and here are the original pt charts from 1994 for OKW (thanks to webmasterdoc).

http://photopost.wdwinfo.com/data/500/OKWpoints94-95.jpg

If you wanted a 1BR at OKW for 7 nights in may 1994, it would have cost 200 pts. If you wanted a 1BR at OKW for 7 nights in may 2018, it would cost 199 pts.

20+ years later and your pts still get you the same value. how's that for no inflation?

OTOH, if you wanted a studio for 5 nights sun-thurs in early december, your 35 pt stay cost in 1994 has now increased by 43% to 50 pts. weeknight stays have taken a hit...but if you just stayed 2 nights on a weekend in early december at OKW, your 34 pt stay in 1994 dropped a bit to 26 pts.

If you typically stay for 7 nights, I doubt you'll see any big changes (although early dec is popular enough that it won't surprise me if they move it to a different season.)

Timesharing definitely involves a risk of change. that's true. but for the most part, just buy a few extra (5-10%) and that should cover most of the small reallocations...

2 - Again, lots of info about historical dues and sales prices (and relative resort and villa sizes) in the Resource Center thread that is stickied:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-dvc-resource-center-updated-january-2018.3655476/

3 - Home resort affects dues (over $8.50 per pt for Vero and less than $6 for SSR due to different maintenance cost issues), length of contract (BCV expires in 2042 while SSR expires in 2054 and so on - see the Resource Center thread) and booking window. If you want to stay at a specific resort, you really may need the 11 month booking advantage to get it. If you are happy just being onsite at WDW, then SSR is a great value.

4 - Were you really likely to pay $450 per night for 7 nights to stay at AKV to begin with? Unless you sincerely were planning to do so, I would not consider that a valid comparison...​

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The other thing about dues is increases are limited on maintenance. But dues also cover property tax. Property tax is not limited, and there are ongoing rumblings in Orange County about assessment of WDW properties that may eventually come to a head.

 

[DSLRuser]

I did the math in 1996 @ $65 a point........I did the math in 2009 @ $130 a point..........I did the math in 2018 @ $175 a point, and I bought 175 points

Although i wish we bought 20 years ago, we were not ready as a family for that commitment. Now that we are ready, the cost mean so much little then it did. that is how we knew it was right for us to buy.

So aside from my initial buy in, which gets differed out over 50 years, I have to pay dues every year. Currently my dues are $1500 ish. When we were booking yearly trips to disney deluxe resorts, it was $5,000 for each vacation. + meals. But now i can do 2 or 3 of those a year.

in the long run $90,000 DVC total cost over 50 years, vs $250,000 ala cart disney vacations over 50 years...(fuzzy math)

 

[Jbryansoutherland]

So was that with or without Disney? $6,000 a year is a lot. Sounds like you went on a Disney cruise each year LOL!

100 points will get you 9 nights in a value studio, or 7 nights in a standard view studio, or 5 nights in a savanna view studio, or 4 nights in a value one bedroom at AKV during dream season, etc... These same points could be used at other resorts as well, if you book 7 months or less from your vacation and there is availability. However, you should be aware that some accommodations, especially value studios, may be unavailable at the 7 month time because they have been booked by people whose home resort gave them the ability to book those accommodations at 11 months.

You need to figure out what resort is the one you'd like to stay at most of all. That "home resort" gives you the 11 month booking advantage over others who have other home resorts. The choice of a home resort is an individual preference. There are people who are passionate about every resort, and people who just bought the cheapest resort (sometimes to stay there, and sometimes because they figure they can always book elsewhere at the 7 month mark).

Once you have decided on your preferred home resort, you now need to figure out your best use year. If you vacation in February, your best use year would be February. That means that your annual points are refreshed the first of February. You can have a vacation using those points after February first, up to January 31 of the next year. Having your use year coincide with the month you normally go to WDW means that you have the ability to cancel a trip and not lose points (in the February example, if you cancel in December, you'd have all those points intact to use for, as an example, a trip in May). If you aren't going one year, you can "bank" your points into the next use year. If you need a few extra points, you can "borrow" points from your next use year.

Once you know your home resort and your use year, you now have to decide upon buying retail or resale. Retail gives you "membership extras" like annual pass discounts, membership magic events, and some other features that usually aren't particularly good uses of your points (such as cruises or Concierge Collection). Resale gives you a healthy discount. Resale asking price right now for 100 points February use year for AKV is $115-117 per point on a popular resale site versus retail price of $171 per point direct from Disney. Retail purchase direct from Disney could close immediately, or you may have to wait (depends if they have that number of points in stock). Resale will take you 2-3 months to close. Retail closing costs are usually $200 or less. Resale closing costs are typically about $600. If you want to buy the latest resort, which is Copper Creek Villas, as your home resort, you'll pay $182 and close immediately.

So, re-working your math...

$11,600 resale purchase of 100 AKV points
or
$17,100 retail purchase of 100 AKV points

Maintenance fees go up every year. $7.62 is this year's price. They are limited to a 3.5% increase, but lately they've been more like 1.25%-1.5%.

I found a AKV standard studio is $3153+tax per week direct from Disney.
If you go through a DVC rental broker to rent the same studio, you'd pay $1520. (no tax)
If you used your own points, it would be $724 (no tax) for the maintenance fees plus some portion of your buy-in price. For the sake of the argument, let's use $3 per point for that apportionment. This makes your own point reservation cost you $1009. So, yes, there is a huge savings potential over any other option.

However, and there's always a however, you're ignoring the time value of money. The initial investment (resale) of $11,600 would be invested or accruing interest. If you were able to get a 5% return on your initial investment, that investment would throw off $580 in returns per year. Interestingly, $580 is nearly the same amount as the difference between renting through a broker and using your own points. Note, though, that the demand for DVC rentals far exceeds the number of owners renting, so you may not be able to obtain a booking and could be forced into getting accommodations direct from Disney at the $3153 price.

But, taken another way, if you planned on going to AKV every year, and were spending $3153 (or more) each year direct, there's a payback period on the initial investment. The delta between $1009 and $3153 is $2144. In five trips, the sum of that yearly difference is the same amount as if you purchased a 100 point resale contract in the first place. After that, you'd be paying only the maintenance fees and wouldn't be concerned with the initial investment (because it's already been paid off by savings).

And, the kicker argument that won over my spouse: Because there is significantly more demand for DVC rentals than DVC members renting, any year we want to go elsewhere for vacation, we can easily rent out our points. That rental income is significantly higher than our maintenance fees, so there's a little left over to fund a trip elsewhere (after giving Uncle Sam his cut).

Craig that is one of the best replies/posts I have seen. I greatly appreciate it!

 

[Jbryansoutherland]

Wow, the support on this forum is outstanding. I greatly appreciate all the replies. From reading all of the posts, these are my final thoughts.

I can save a lot of money by buying resale, but I lose the annual pass discount (which I understand you can save money by working it where you come in a week early the next year and use the annual pass for the parks so you get two visits use out of them, then buying the next trip and repeating).

The only real thing I lose with resale is 1) a little more closing cost, 2), none of the special event invitations (which for me, means changing my trip around to accommodate: both my wife in I work in the schools so we are obviously pretty set on our dates).

I see where I can save some for cruises, but they isn't the "best" use for the points, and I would likely be best to rent them the year we go on a cruise and pay cash? (DVC salesman said I can use point for cruise for adults, but do not for children and pay cash for them because they are around $100 per day).

Important: If we sell in 10 years, is it likely to at least get what I paid for the points? or will I be S.O.L? (I understand that I will likely not recoup the $1000 per year of annual dues, but I know that I did get 10 years of memories and vacations, which is definitely worth that).

Does my home resort affect the length of my contract or is it 50 years no matter what? (Which affects the cost analysis of course). If I buy into AK, which is older, would my contract expire in 2057? So I would only get 39 years on this contract for the same $18,200 buy in for 100 points? That year difference for the same buy in is a significant difference.

Thank you all for the great replies, this is very much appreciated in my decision making.

 

[sndral]

DVC cannot create more points at a resort. What they can and have done is to reallocate the points. For example it used to be pretty expensive to stay Fri. and Sat. nights but relatively cheap point wise to stay Sun. - Thurs. nights. So DVC evened it out as mentioned by chalee94 above. Currently a stay costs more or less points depending on when you go (called seasons) for example Christmas week is in the ‘premier’ season and a standard studio at AKV costs 148 points. The first 2 weeks of Dec. are in the cheapest ‘adventure’ season and that same studio will only cost 81 points for a week. DVC could readjust the seasons, putting a particular week into a more expensive season but they’d have to also make another week less expensive. AKV did reallocate points when they reclassified several villas from savanna view to standard view and more recently when they created a ‘preferred’ category at SSR.
Be aware that if your focus is on AKV there are very few value villas and they are hard to get at 11 months, best to calculate your minimum point needs at AKV based on standard view.
The resale value of your contract is difficult to predict. I bought my first resale contract a couple of years ago @ AKV and could sell it for a profit now even w/ paying the broker’s commission. Surprisingly I bought VGF a year ago and could probably sell it, pay commission, and still pocket a few dollars. However, if the economy tanks, or if interest rates rise, then I expect that the value of my points would go down - which is what happened in the last economic downturn. As some of the 2042 end date DVC resorts get closer to the end of the contract I expect the value of those points to go down, hard to predict the impact that will have on resorts w/ later end dates.

 

[Jbryansoutherland]

1 - The total number of pts (including every villa for every night of the year) for each resort is fixed and cannot change. Here's some history for you. you can see some of the reallocations in the links below:

You can find the current point chart for OKW in the Resource Center thread that is stickied:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-dvc-resource-center-updated-january-2018.3655476/​

and here are the original pt charts from 1994 for OKW (thanks to webmasterdoc).

http://photopost.wdwinfo.com/data/500/OKWpoints94-95.jpg

If you wanted a 1BR at OKW for 7 nights in may 1994, it would have cost 200 pts. If you wanted a 1BR at OKW for 7 nights in may 2018, it would cost 199 pts.

20+ years later and your pts still get you the same value. how's that for no inflation?

OTOH, if you wanted a studio for 5 nights sun-thurs in early december, your 35 pt stay cost in 1994 has now increased by 43% to 50 pts. weeknight stays have taken a hit...but if you just stayed 2 nights on a weekend in early december at OKW, your 34 pt stay in 1994 dropped a bit to 26 pts.

If you typically stay for 7 nights, I doubt you'll see any big changes (although early dec is popular enough that it won't surprise me if they move it to a different season.)

Timesharing definitely involves a risk of change. that's true. but for the most part, just buy a few extra (5-10%) and that should cover most of the small reallocations...

2 - Again, lots of info about historical dues and sales prices (and relative resort and villa sizes) in the Resource Center thread that is stickied:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-dvc-resource-center-updated-january-2018.3655476/

3 - Home resort affects dues (over $8.50 per pt for Vero and less than $6 for SSR due to different maintenance cost issues), length of contract (BCV expires in 2042 while SSR expires in 2054 and so on - see the Resource Center thread) and booking window. If you want to stay at a specific resort, you really may need the 11 month booking advantage to get it. If you are happy just being onsite at WDW, then SSR is a great value.

4 - Were you really likely to pay $450 per night for 7 nights to stay at AKV to begin with? Unless you sincerely were planning to do so, I would not consider that a valid comparison...​

Good information. As far as would I really pay $450 per night? It is pertinent because I wanted to compare it and see if there is an actual savings or is it apples to apples. I would like to know that something like a DVC investment would "allow

DVC cannot create more points at a resort. What they can and have done is to reallocate the points. For example it used to be pretty expensive to stay Fri. and Sat. nights but relatively cheap point wise to stay Sun. - Thurs. nights. So DVC evened it out as mentioned by chalee94 above. Currently a stay costs more or less points depending on when you go (called seasons) for example Christmas week is in the ‘premier’ season and a standard studio at AKV costs 148 points. The first 2 weeks of Dec. are in the cheapest ‘adventure’ season and that same studio will only cost 81 points for a week. DVC could readjust the seasons, putting a particular week into a more expensive season but they’d have to also make another week less expensive. AKV did reallocate points when they reclassified several villas from savanna view to standard view and more recently when they created a ‘preferred’ category at SSR.
Be aware that if your focus is on AKV there are very few value villas and they are hard to get at 11 months, best to calculate your minimum point needs at AKV based on standard view.
The resale value of your contract is difficult to predict. I bought my first resale contract a couple of years ago @ AKV and could sell it for a profit now even w/ paying the broker’s commission. Surprisingly I bought VGF a year ago and could probably sell it, pay commission, and still pocket a few dollars. However, if the economy tanks, or if interest rates rise, then I expect that the value of my points would go down - which is what happened in the last economic downturn. As some of the 2042 end date DVC resorts get closer to the end of the contract I expect the value of those points to go down, hard to predict the impact that will have on resorts w/ later end dates.

Thank you! What about AK ownership ending in 5057. Does this effectively deem this contract a 39 year contract vs a 50 year one for the same buy in cost?

 

[Matty B13]

Important: If we sell in 10 years, is it likely to at least get what I paid for the points? or will I be S.O.L? (I understand that I will likely not recoup the $1000 per year of annual dues, but I know that I did get 10 years of memories and vacations, which is definitely worth that).

Does my home resort affect the length of my contract or is it 50 years no matter what? (Which affects the cost analysis of course). If I buy into AK, which is older, would my contract expire in 2057? So I would only get 39 years on this contract for the same $18,200 buy in for 100 points? That year difference for the same buy in is a significant difference.

I wouldn't count on getting your money back and I don't look at DVC as a typical timeshare or real estate investment, but it seems like most people who bought can at least get their money back. It also depends on how good the economy is doing at the time. I'm sure during the recent recession that some people were selling for less than they bought in.

Each Resort has a set end date, so your "memberships" are based on the length of how many years are left at that resort. Here is a link of pricing and end dates.

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-program/financial/pricing-a-promotions

 

[Dean]

Wow, the support on this forum is outstanding. I greatly appreciate all the replies. From reading all of the posts, these are my final thoughts.

I can save a lot of money by buying resale, but I lose the annual pass discount (which I understand you can save money by working it where you come in a week early the next year and use the annual pass for the parks so you get two visits use out of them, then buying the next trip and repeating).

The only real thing I lose with resale is 1) a little more closing cost, 2), none of the special event invitations (which for me, means changing my trip around to accommodate: both my wife in I work in the schools so we are obviously pretty set on our dates).

I see where I can save some for cruises, but they isn't the "best" use for the points, and I would likely be best to rent them the year we go on a cruise and pay cash? (DVC salesman said I can use point for cruise for adults, but do not for children and pay cash for them because they are around $100 per day).

Important: If we sell in 10 years, is it likely to at least get what I paid for the points? or will I be S.O.L? (I understand that I will likely not recoup the $1000 per year of annual dues, but I know that I did get 10 years of memories and vacations, which is definitely worth that).

Does my home resort affect the length of my contract or is it 50 years no matter what? (Which affects the cost analysis of course). If I buy into AK, which is older, would my contract expire in 2057? So I would only get 39 years on this contract for the same $18,200 buy in for 100 points? That year difference for the same buy in is a significant difference.

Thank you all for the great replies, this is very much appreciated in my decision making.

You'd need a boatload of passes to make up the difference for retail even at just 75 points. I think expecting to sell in 10 years and break even, even if one bought resale, is optimistic at best. There are NO discounts on cruises, it consistently costs more to cruise using points than just paying cash plus one would have to buy a LOT more points AND retail to do so. Each resort has an ending date, that does not change but normally starts at 50 years.

 

[chalee94]

I see where I can save some for cruises, but they isn't the "best" use for the points, and I would likely be best to rent them the year we go on a cruise and pay cash? (DVC salesman said I can use point for cruise for adults, but do not for children and pay cash for them because they are around $100 per day).

You don't save anything when using pts for cruises. You pay extra as the exchange rate for trades out of the DVC system is not very good.

Important: If we sell in 10 years, is it likely to at least get what I paid for the points? or will I be S.O.L? (I understand that I will likely not recoup the $1000 per year of annual dues, but I know that I did get 10 years of memories and vacations, which is definitely worth that).

What does your crystal ball say? Someone who sold in 2008 during the Great Recession might have taken a big loss (supposedly an OKW contract sold for $25 per pt). Lately, prices have been rising but due to the expiration dates on the contracts, prices will ultimately go to zero - no one knows how that pricing trend will look before expiration. Other timeshare companies try to damage resale values to benefit their direct sales such that their timeshares are basically worthless at resale (and DVC has been inching in that direction).

A reasonable bet is that you will recover a lot of your initial investment if you sell in 10 years but there is a risk that it may be worthless.

Does my home resort affect the length of my contract or is it 50 years no matter what? (Which affects the cost analysis of course). If I buy into AK, which is older, would my contract expire in 2057? So I would only get 39 years on this contract for the same $18,200 buy in for 100 points? That year difference for the same buy in is a significant difference.

As I posted above, it's all in the Resource thread - home resort determines length of contract. Pricing for AKV is less than for CCV direct and much less for AKV at resale. (Due to the time value of money, the last few years are not worth much "right now" - a whole lot can change in 30 years...)

 

[disneynutz]

A few years ago we sold some contracts and took a $10,000 loss.

Bill

 

[Bing Showei]

A few years ago we sold some contracts and took a $10,000 loss.

Bill

Not enough people talk about this possibility. It’s very real, but if you read a lot of the posts about “breaking even” and such, you would think buying in and reselling in the future is a sure bet.

For every person that bought in on a dip for a crazy good deal (looks at @DougEMG), someone out there sold that same contract at a huge loss.

No one likes planning for an economic downturn or thinking about losing their job because corporate bottom lines trump the human impact of layoffs, but when you’re in a position where you stretch to buy a contract, or you stretch to pay dues (“I can always rent my points out!”), when things go south, you may end up needing to sell. Needing to sell is rarely planned for, but it’s the exact risk that keeps being mentioned by those who have been in the system long enough to know better than to champion buying into DVC, confident that you will be able to sell for a profit.

 

[Dean]

Not enough people talk about this possibility. It’s very real, but if you read a lot of the posts about “breaking even” and such, you would think buying in and reselling in the future is a sure bet.

For every person that bought in on a dip for a crazy good deal (looks at @DougEMG), someone out there sold that same contract at a huge loss.

No one likes planning for an economic downturn or thinking about losing their job because corporate bottom lines trump the human impact of layoffs, but when you’re in a position where you stretch to buy a contract, or you stretch to pay dues (“I can always rent my points out!”), when things go south, you may end up needing to sell. Needing to sell is rarely planned for, but it’s the exact risk that keeps being mentioned by those who have been in the system long enough to know better than to champion buying into DVC, confident that you will be able to sell for a profit.

It has to be part of the thought process. Most people only consider what’s around the best case scenario. But things like losing a job, death of a spouse or even WDW closing of going to pot should at least be considered before buying. One just takes all those issues into account and makes their best choice. Far better to never buy when DVC would have been perfect and a great savings than to get in a mess.

 

[CraigInPA]

To amplify on one important aspect of the "inherent value" of a DVC membership...

There have been people who bought a membership and then sold it years later at a price higher than their original purchase price. One has to remember that DVC has been around for 27 years, and early purchasers paid $48 per point for what is now called Old Key West. A later example is 2008 Bay Lake Tower sold at $112 per point. Resale pricing ranged from 50-75% of retail for a while. In 2017, it was touching 80% of retail (and higher) until Disney had its last round of price increases. Now, it's back down to its historic trend.

One cannot assume that they will be able to sell their DVC membership for "what they paid for it". In fact, you should assume that you will get nothing for it, and be pleasantly surprised if you can, in fact, sell it for something close to the original price you paid 10 years from now. The likelihood of that happening depends upon what you pay today. If you're paying retail prices, it is likely you will not sell it for a price that is equal to, or higher than, what you paid for it in 2018. If you're paying resale prices, the answer is a distinct "maybe". And that depends upon the nature of the business climate, how many years are left on the contract, whether there are current year points available to be used, how quickly you need to sell it, etc...

 

[Jbryansoutherland]

Thank you all very much for the replies! Great information!

 

[kniquy]

It doesn't make sense to buy at one resort with the intention of staying elsewhere so the motto buy where you want to stay (or don't mind staying) is the first step in your decision process. Then you can figure if going direct or going resale is the best route. If you only intend on going every other year then definitely look at resale, if you plan on going yearly or more frequently then going direct to get some discounts is a benefit. But when you look at the cost of direct and the savings that can be had by buying resale, it often makes more sense to go resale.

Even though yearly MF will increase it is kind of off set by the fact that room costs direct from Disney will increase too. So in a sense it could be a wash if you are comparing rack rate or even discounted rates to the MF.

Overall I am trying to see the value in tying up so much money over 50 years when the benefits don’t seem to be that substantial.

One thing to keep in mind is that most people don't keep their contract until the end. You do have the option to sell if in say 10-15 years your family no longer loves disney trips. As long as the market remains good, many people who bought even a few years ago would be able to sell today and actually make a little $$. So don't necessarily think of it as a 50 year commitment. It will be for how ever long you need your contract. The contract life plays a part in the future resale value. For example BC which expires in 2042 is selling resale for a very high price per point, but you could buy AK which expires in 2057 (so when you are well into your 70's). If you keep your contract for 15 years -- the 2042 expiration contracts will only have 9 years left and the cost per point will likely have dropped, so if you wanted to sell you would make back a smaller amount. Buying a 2057 contract (or beyond) and you keep for 15 years, well that contract now has 24 years left -- thus possibly being able to sell for more.

The benefits that you are buying are being able to get into a deluxe room for the cost of a moderate or less. So for example our April trip consists of 2 poly studios for 3 nights (Disney cost = $2000 per room), then 4 nights at AKL in a 2 BR - this would run about $4000 = So in all it would have cost me around $8000 for this week. My initial buy in at AK resale was just about $9000 back in 2015 - so with one more trip i will likely break even and i have only owned for a few years. After recouping my initial buy in my MF of ~$800 is certainly much cheaper than getting a studio room for a week at AK. We intend on going everyother year in a 1BR so say $1600 for a week at AK in a 1BR -- you try paying that at disney. So there is value in what you are buying. It helps to make disney a little more affordable, but disney isn't a cheap vacation when you have to factor in food, park tickets and travel.

I have thought about using resale: what benefits do I lose? (I could Buy a low amount of points direct and buy the others resale to get benefits right? Or has Disney stopped this?)

The minimum for benefits/discounts is 75 points, so yes you could buy one resale and one direct. the savings is just less than when they were allowing the 25 point minimum for benefits. You would just have to factor all the numbers including closing costs of 2 contracts etc.

If I buy AK as my home place, what does that mean if I want to go somewhere else? Is AK an option or does that shorten the years owned thus affecting the bottom line since this is an older property.

Right now AK is one of the longerish contracts, which is what drew me to it. You are free to use your points elsewhere at 7 months, as long as there is availability. Higher demand DVC times - Oct - Jan -- you better book at 11 months and you will likely not be able to switch resorts (at least not for your whole length of stay. Most other times of the year, provided it isn't around a holiday or marathon weekend, you could still book your home resort at 11 months and switch all or part to another resort at 7 months. I did this for my upcoming April trip - I booked our home resort AK for 7 nights, then at 7 months i was able to change our first 3 nights to Poly.

There is a TON to learn about DVC, even once you own there are scenarios that pop up so these boards are an essential part of owning DVC because if you don't know the answer, chances are someone here does.

 

[crisi]

One of the downfalls to DVC is flexibility. By where you want to stay - and staying anywhere else is getting harder and harder at seven months if you want studios (and if you are looking at this as a way to save on hotel rooms, you are probably looking at studios - two bedrooms also go fast, not as fast, but fast). Which means that if you buy the BCV and book eleven months out, you need to be happy with the BCVs. You'll probably be able to switch, but you won't switch dependably to a studio at BWV/VGF,Poly/BLT/VWL - and the last three months of the year you may not even be able to switch dependably into the larger and less central resorts (VAKL, SSR, OKW).

If you are open to a one bedroom, you'll have a lot more flexibility in seven months with resort choices. If you are open to a split stay, or using a waitlist, or stalking availability, you'll also see more success in staying somewhere other than home.

Or to look at this the other direction, Poly owners paid a lot for their points compared to some other choices they could have made. They probably aren't lining up to use their expensive points out at VAKL. They are most likely to book at home, which will make availability for the hundreds of thousands of non-Poly owners who decide that they'd like to stay there tough when the window opens for them. Not impossible - many of those non-owners will get a Poly room....but not all and possibly not most.

 

[Dean]

It doesn't make sense to buy at one resort with the intention of staying elsewhere so the motto buy where you want to stay (or don't mind staying) is the first step in your decision process.

IMO there are often times when it makes sense to buy one place with the intent of consistently buying elsewhere. But one should be OK staying there if they can't get something elsewhere.

 

[pineapplepalms]

IMO there are often times when it makes sense to buy one place with the intent of consistently buying elsewhere. But one should be OK staying there if they can't get something elsewhere.

I agree, especially in the case of multiple home resorts. We have contracts that we intend to use at our home resorts a lot of the time (especially in the fall to early January timeframe), and SSR resale for trips at other times of the year in 1BR and 2BR villas that are not hard to book at 7 months out or less. We're also using the SSR resale points for last minute weekend trips to VGC when we can grab cancellations. If we do stay at SSR on those points we're fine with that too.