100 points will get you 9 nights in a value studio, or 7 nights in a standard view studio, or 5 nights in a savanna view studio, or 4 nights in a value one bedroom at AKV during dream season, etc... These same points could be used at other resorts as well, if you book 7 months or less from your vacation and there is availability. However, you should be aware that some accommodations, especially value studios, may be unavailable at the 7 month time because they have been booked by people whose home resort gave them the ability to book those accommodations at 11 months.
You need to figure out what resort is the one you'd like to stay at most of all. That "home resort" gives you the 11 month booking advantage over others who have other home resorts. The choice of a home resort is an individual preference. There are people who are passionate about every resort, and people who just bought the cheapest resort (sometimes to stay there, and sometimes because they figure they can always book elsewhere at the 7 month mark).
Once you have decided on your preferred home resort, you now need to figure out your best use year. If you vacation in February, your best use year would be February. That means that your annual points are refreshed the first of February. You can have a vacation using those points after February first, up to January 31 of the next year. Having your use year coincide with the month you normally go to WDW means that you have the ability to cancel a trip and not lose points (in the February example, if you cancel in December, you'd have all those points intact to use for, as an example, a trip in May). If you aren't going one year, you can "bank" your points into the next use year. If you need a few extra points, you can "borrow" points from your next use year.
Once you know your home resort and your use year, you now have to decide upon buying retail or resale. Retail gives you "membership extras" like annual pass discounts, membership magic events, and some other features that usually aren't particularly good uses of your points (such as cruises or Concierge Collection). Resale gives you a healthy discount. Resale asking price right now for 100 points February use year for AKV is $115-117 per point on a popular resale site versus retail price of $171 per point direct from Disney. Retail purchase direct from Disney could close immediately, or you may have to wait (depends if they have that number of points in stock). Resale will take you 2-3 months to close. Retail closing costs are usually $200 or less. Resale closing costs are typically about $600. If you want to buy the latest resort, which is Copper Creek Villas, as your home resort, you'll pay $182 and close immediately.
So, re-working your math...
$11,600 resale purchase of 100 AKV points
or
$17,100 retail purchase of 100 AKV points
Maintenance fees go up every year. $7.62 is this year's price. They are limited to a 3.5% increase, but lately they've been more like 1.25%-1.5%.
I found a AKV standard studio is $3153+tax per week direct from Disney.
If you go through a
DVC rental broker to rent the same studio, you'd pay $1520. (no tax)
If you used your own points, it would be $724 (no tax) for the maintenance fees plus some portion of your buy-in price. For the sake of the argument, let's use $3 per point for that apportionment. This makes your own point reservation cost you $1009. So, yes, there is a huge savings potential over any other option.
However, and there's always a however, you're ignoring the time value of money. The initial investment (resale) of $11,600 would be invested or accruing interest. If you were able to get a 5% return on your initial investment, that investment would throw off $580 in returns per year. Interestingly, $580 is nearly the same amount as the difference between renting through a broker and using your own points. Note, though, that the demand for
DVC rentals far exceeds the number of owners renting, so you may not be able to obtain a booking and could be forced into getting accommodations direct from Disney at the $3153 price.
But, taken another way, if you planned on going to AKV every year, and were spending $3153 (or more) each year direct, there's a payback period on the initial investment. The delta between $1009 and $3153 is $2144. In five trips, the sum of that yearly difference is the same amount as if you purchased a 100 point resale contract in the first place. After that, you'd be paying only the maintenance fees and wouldn't be concerned with the initial investment (because it's already been paid off by savings).
And, the kicker argument that won over my spouse: Because there is significantly more demand for DVC rentals than DVC members renting, any year we want to go elsewhere for vacation, we can easily rent out our points. That rental income is significantly higher than our maintenance fees, so there's a little left over to fund a trip elsewhere (after giving Uncle Sam his cut).
Bill
